Olivia Miles' transfer portal entrance highlights power shift in women's basketball

New York Times

02-04-2025

The top of the 2025 WNBA Draft experienced a major shakeup when Olivia Miles entered the transfer portal. Miles was projected to be the No. 2 pick in April's draft and likely fall no lower than third overall, but instead she has elected to extend her college career, just not at Notre Dame.
Even though the era of the pandemic bonus year has essentially ended in college basketball as eligible players had to be on rosters during the 2020-21 season, which was when the current crop of fourth-year seniors was in high school, eligibility decisions are still at play for WNBA prospects. There are still medical redshirts, which is why Miles can play for another year because she missed the 2023-24 season with a torn ACL. Furthermore, juniors who turn 22 during the year of the draft have the option to go pro or remain in school.
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Miles' decision not only represents the emerging power of player agency in the women's basketball landscape, but it is particularly interesting strictly from a basketball consideration, as she is beloved by WNBA talent evaluators. The former Notre Dame guard was all but guaranteed to be a lottery pick, with general managers calling her the safest pick in the draft beyond UConn's Paige Bueckers. Her massive improvement as a 3-point shooter (24.6 percent before the injury compared to 40.8 percent after) was the tipping point when combined with her already excellent facilitation as a lead guard.
In theory, Miles' stock has nowhere to go but down if her shooting doesn't remain consistent at this level. That indicates that when she gets picked isn't nearly as important as how much money she can make in the process, where she goes, and how her body feels after her ACL injury.
The WNBA is currently negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement with the players' association that could potentially triple individual salaries. Rather than lock herself into a four-year rookie contract totaling about $350,000, Miles could wait to enter the league until 2026 and possibly recoup that figure within the first two seasons. Agents have been advising college players across the country with an additional year of eligibility to stay in school and reap the financial rewards of the next CBA.
If Miles makes her transfer decision within the next week, she could also secure name, image and likeness commitments before the final hearing in the House v. NCAA lawsuit on April 7. This is the last gasp for unregulated 'pay-for-play' deals with athletes before they are assessed by an NCAA clearinghouse. Given Miles' status as a two-time All-American — the only other multi-time All-American to ever enter the portal was LSU's Aneesah Morrow, who left DePaul — Miles will presumably be raking in cash from collectives.
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It's worth remembering that Miles' external sponsorships will likely stay with her when she turns professional, supplementing her WNBA salary. However, collectives affiliated with a university will only be interested in her as a collegian; thus, this is her last opportunity to pull in that particular revenue stream.
Most WNBA executives didn't cite Miles' health as a concern in the lead-up to the draft, as she has suffered only one significant injury and appeared to be in excellent form during the 2024-25 season. However, she told The Athletic in Birmingham that she is not close to where she wants to be post-injury.
'My physical shape could be better,' Miles said. 'This injury, it's a long, long process. Even after you're healed, getting the rest of your body to catch up. I would say I'm not even 75 percent of the way there yet.'
Taking the leap from college to the WNBA requires a certain level of confidence not only in a player's skills, but in their body. If Miles doesn't feel physically herself, it wouldn't be the right time to play against grown women in a physical league. That's a similar calculation that Azzi Fudd had to make. The redshirt junior opted out of the 2025 draft to return to the Huskies despite also being a projected first-round pick. Fudd has barely played one full healthy season at UConn and could stand to get stronger before joining the W.
Miles also has more to accomplish at the collegiate level. She ended her season in the Sweet 16, just as she has every full season at Notre Dame, which was short of what the Irish — who were ranked No. 1 in the country on Feb. 17 — had hoped for. There were always questions about the fit between Miles and another ball-dominant guard in Hannah Hidalgo. Now, Miles can find another team where she is the full-time point guard and with more returning talent. Even if Miles returned, Notre Dame was losing half its rotation (Sonia Citron, Maddy Westbeld, Liatu King and Liza Karlen) and bringing in one top-100 recruit.
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Flau'jae Johnson, a draft-eligible junior, said she wanted to do more winning before leaving LSU, despite already being a national champion.
'Once you taste the national championship, you want more,' Johnson said after losing in the Elite Eight. 'And I feel like that national championship I had (as a freshman), yeah, I was a big factor in it, but there were bigger factors in that. I want my own one. Where I lead the team.'
Ta'Niya Latson, who was a 2025 All-American with Miles and Johnson, has experienced enough individual accolades at Florida State. She also entered the portal instead of the WNBA draft, having hit a repeated NCAA Tournament first-weekend ceiling with the Seminoles.
There will always be a draw to playing in the NCAA Tournament, one that the WNBA can't match, and there are only so many years when players can take part in it. All of the aforementioned athletes have been deprived of postseason experience due to injury. Miles missed two tournaments, Fudd missed one and was ill during another, and Latson was injured during her freshman postseason.
This is a situation JuJu Watkins will have to consider when she returns from her ACL injury. Rather than go pro in 2027, she could stay in college a fifth year as a medical redshirt to get back the March time she lost, depending on what USC has accomplished to that point.
Miles' decision doesn't exist in a vacuum. It is representative of all the financial, medical and legacy-related questions that female athletes are confronting in a time when they have more agency than ever. The balance of power is shifting, and colleges and WNBA teams are now at the mercy of the players.