Sabah, Sarawak hold key to Malaysia's political future - analyst

Borneo Post

13-05-2025

A YouTube screenshot of James (left) being interviewed by host Khoo Hsu Chuang.
KOTA KINABALU (May 13): Give the East Malaysians what they want or risk losing the elections, warned political analyst Professor James Chin.
In an interview on the @DoMoreTakeChargeOfYourLife YouTube channel, Prof James, who is from the University of Tasmania, shares his thoughts on why he thinks this is so.
The Political Landscape of East Malaysia
Starting off with the basics of Malaysian politics, it has always been understood to be a Barisan Nasional (BN) type of politics, where the core party is United Malays National Organisation (Umno), while other component parties such Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) collectively add to BN's strength.
Some argue that this model fell apart in 2018, but it had actually occurred in 2008, when the elections showed that without support from the Members of Parliament (MPs) from Sabah and Sarawak, Umno will fall from power.
'That's the reason why when Najib came into power in 2009, one of the things he did was to make sure that the Speaker and Deputy Speakers came from Sabah and Sarawak.
'And more importantly, he made sure that we get this thing called Malaysia Day, a public holiday and a recognition of the formation of Malaysia,' said James.
This was when everything changed, as people suddenly realised that the East Malaysian states are crucial to political stability at the federal level. Since prior to 2008, it was always understood that Sabah and Sarawak were basically a fixed deposit for BN – Umno.
Another big change happened in 2018, when BN-Umno fell out of power. This was another crucial time for Sabah and Sarawak because this allowed Sabahans and Sarawakians to break away from the BN model.
On the night BN lost power, the most important thing is not so much that then Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was trying to stage a coup or whatever, but it was when BN component parties left the coalition to form Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).
'This sent a very strong signal that you guys can do whatever you want on the Malayan side, but you cannot rely on us in Sabah and Sarawak to just follow along.
'So that's the reason why in politics today, no matter how you play the numbers game, you always have to look at what's happening in Sabah and Sarawak,' he said
Although the 112 parliamentary seats were required to form the government then, to obtain real political stability required 148 seats with support from Sabah and Sarawak.
Prior to 2008, nobody mentioned the Malaysian Agreement 1963 (MA63), as most people considered 1957 as the independence date for Malaysia.
Only after the controversy on the agreement that people started realising that the count doesn't start from 57, but 63, which is the real date of Malaysia's formation.
The Fragmentation of Political Voices
The above reasons showed how Sabah and Sarawak are very important to the political stability of the country moving forward, with the 50 plus parliamentary seats considered as East Malaysian fixed deposit for the ruling BN coalition at the time.
However, these 50 MPs do not speak as one voice, with fragmentation existing between Sabah and Sarawak.
'On the Sarawak side, the block is actually quite solid as they had around 32 seats. It is in Sabah that you don't get a solid block.
'Having said that, there are certain issues where all the MPs, regardless of which party they came from, will come together. For example, MA63,' said James.
This is the reason why the upcoming Sabah state elections is crucial, because what Sabahans are trying to do under Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor's administration is to create their own version of GPS.
If GRS does well in the elections, they are hoping to transfer that success to the next general election, which Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has to call in two years' time.
The Future of Sabah Elections
In terms of Sabah politics, political parties' labelling is not really important, except maybe in urban areas where the Democratic Action Party's (DAP) rocket is a very strong symbol.
Another important issue is regarding illegal immigrants (PTIs), who mostly came from the Mindanao regions of the Philippines and Indonesia and have resided in Sabah for many decades.
Looking at the latest census figures, what is really interesting is that even the Malaysian government itself acknowledges that one-third of Sabah's population was not born in the state.
'But if you speak to researchers who are working on the ground in Sabah, they will tell you that 50 percent of the population are now people who were not born and raised in Sabah.
'If we want to be crude, it is arguable that the Sabah we see today was not the Sabah we saw at the time of independence in 1963, when the Kadazan-Dusun were the majority.
'Now, the Kadazan-Dusun are basically a minority in the state. Sabah is now a Muslim-majority state, and looking at its electoral politics, the native population have lost their balancing power,' said James.
Looking at the Sarawak GPS model, it currently dominates local politics with 80 out of 82 state seats, while the remaining two seats are held by DAP.
The idea in this is to localise politics and create a very parochial political culture. This sort of model appears to be very popular in Sarawak.
And looking at the four parties that make up GPS – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak Peoples' Party (PRS), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Sarawak United Peoples' Party (SUPP) – a unique thing they share is that they are local Sarawak-based parties not found outside the state.
'So that's the reason why on this side, people are a bit afraid, because they feel that if Sarawak keeps going this way, they will never get a chance to penetrate there.
'For example, these BN parties have a big headache because they don't actually have any ground presence in Sarawak. They have ground presence in Sabah, which they previously didn't.
'But what people forget is that the only reason they went to Sabah is because the local champions in Sabah, who represent Umno's interest group, turned against them.
'In 1991, Peninsular-based parties such as Umno and MCA entered Sabah because they had no choice, but in Sarawak, that never happened,' he said.
Coming back to the main question – what do Sabahans want?
Sabahans, at least the political elite, want to replicate the GPS model where it's a local-based coalition, and kick out all the other non-Sabahan parties.
Unfortunately, they cannot do this in Sabah because its politics is based on personalities.
The Sabah elections this time will be quite interesting due to the spectre of high-level corruption hanging over the top administration, referring to the series of videos implicating several government assemblymen of bribery.
'So forget what the political elites want. What about the people themselves?
'What Sabahans want is very similar to what the rest of Malaysians want – political stability, economic prosperity, and a future for their children.
'But the problem in Sabah is, as I've said, the politics revolves around personalities, so all these things cannot happen,' he said.
Sabah's economy has not been doing very well and it is one of poorest states in Malaysia, despite the fact that Sabah and Sarawak are major oil and gas producers.
Since 1963, Sabah has gone through about 20 chief ministers. It is also the only state which experiments this top political position through the rotational chief minister system during Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's time.
This system is unique because it allowed three voting blocs – Muslim Bumiputera, non-Muslim Bumiputera and Chinese – to each get a two-year term as the chief minister.
However, today's people have mostly forgotten about this system.
'I think one of the problems we have on the Malayan side is that people don't understand Sabah and Sarawak, and also people here have very, very short memories,' he said.
The Challenges of Political Stability
In the next national elections, GPS is expected to dominate and use this advantage to get maximum concession with whoever the federal government is, to resolve the MA63 historical grievances.
In Sabah, everything will be dependent on the upcoming state elections, which has to be called in the second half of his year.
On the Peninsular side, the most important thing is whether Anwar can hold the Unity Government coalition together, which was basically entrusted to him by the King, who asked him to form the government.
So in the next round of general election (GE), rather than a three-way fight like the last GE – BN versus Pakatan Harapan (PH) versus Perikatan Nasional (PN) – this time will see basically PH-BN against PN fight.
'If they cannot get a clear majority on this side of the South China Sea, then Sabah and Sarawak will play a very important role in picking whoever will eventually form the federal government, and whoever gets the 148 parliamentary seats will get political stability,' said James.
For Anwar's side, the most important thing is to handle the relationship between PH and BN-Umno because they will have to share seats in the coming GE.
For PN's side, they only have one card to play, which is the political Islam card. They are expected to go all-out and capture the Malay seats.
What is interesting about PAS is that it has already broken out of the four classic core Malay states – Selangor, Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Pahang – so now they have to go down to the lower half of the Malayan states.
If they can sweep through Malaya, even if Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) does not do very well, they could obtain close to 112 parliamentary seats.
'And if PN can get about 100 to 105 seats, it is very likely that Sabah and Sarawak will have no choice but to join with PN,' he said.
The Structure of Malaysian Politics
Looking back, the country has not really had political stability since 2018.
The government fell in 2020 under Mahathir's rule, and the country had two more prime ministers, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, and now Anwar, who was elected at the end of 2022.
In January 2024, there was the Langkah Dubai attempt to replace Anwar.
Only in the middle of the year did Anwar gain political stability, when there was infighting in Bersatu and people defected but the Speaker did not apply the anti-hopping law.
'The Anwar that you see now is not the real Anwar because he did not win the mandate in the last GE. He was given the task to form the government.
'The Anwar you see today is the one trying to hold the coalition together and prepare it to win the next GE.
'If you really want to know what Anwar is really like, you got to give him the mandate in the next GE,' said James.
Going further back, Malaysia was formed in a very interesting way. In 1957, one structure was put in place which no other country had.
First, there is a written Constitution, but some of the powers of this constitution was restricted to the Conference of Rulers, outside of the constitution.
Second, ethnic identity was tied with religious identity. A Malay person in Malaysia must be a practicing Muslim, which is defined in the Constitution.
'Which means that from day one, Malaysia has always practiced racial/identity politics. You can't run away from that,' he said.
The second real restructuring of Malaysian politics occurred after the 1969 racial riots.
Then Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein had the idea how to move the country forward, which was by creating BN in 1973, a completely new political structure.
Malaysians of today are currently living in the era of this political structure created by Abdul Razak, but modified extensively through strongman Mahathir, who was in power for more than 20 years.
This structure is basically based on seeking power through race and religion. It's a winner-take-all system.
Even though the Constitution has been amended hundreds of times, it is not possible to change this portion of it because for the core part, certain things such as Article 153 cannot be amended without the Conference of Rulers' assent.
Mahathir during his era had amended the Constitution to fit himself, changing the entire political structure, especially in terms of the civil service and creating a political culture that lives on until today.
'So when you say that you want politicians to get on with it and bring the country forward, it is not possible under the current system,' he said.
But what is very clear is that in the next GE, the only vote that is up for play is the Malay votes.
For the Chinese votes, the argument is still solidly behind DAP.
This leaves the Indian votes as the only other that can be sort of played with.
'In the East Malaysian side, everything will depend on what happens in the upcoming state election.
'So the bottom line is, the next government will be formed by whoever wins the Malay votes and who comes closest to the 112 parliamentary seats,' he said.