Here's How the N.Y.C. Mayoral Results May Emerge
We are unlikely to know the winner of the Democratic primary race for mayor on primary night.
Polls show a close contest between two candidates, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. In the ranked-choice election, voters can select up to five candidates in order of preference, and if neither man gets more than 50 percent of the first-place votes on Tuesday, a series of subsequent rounds will tally the final results based on voters' second-through-fifth-place choices.
But that count will not take place until July 1, a week after the election, because absentee, mail-in and affidavit votes, which can be important in a close race, can be received and counted up until then.
Polls close in New York at 9 p.m., and first results will start to come shortly after that.
Here's what else you'll need to know ahead of Primary Day:
The math of ranked-choice voting
This is New York's second mayoral primary election using the ranked-choice voting system. Vote counting proceeds in rounds, with the last-place candidate eliminated in each round. If a voter's top choice is eliminated, the vote is then transferred to the voter's next choice. Elimination rounds continue until there are two candidates left and one gets more than 50 percent of the vote.
Most reliable polls suggest that neither Mr. Mamdani nor Mr. Cuomo will receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of vote counting on Tuesday night. But their performances will offer a look at who has the upper hand: The closer a candidate is to 50 percent, the better chance that candidate has to win in the end.
The first results to come in on Tuesday night, from a period of early voting that began more than a week ago, are likely to favor Mr. Mamdani. That's because a jump in the number of early voters this year appears to be driven by younger voters, who tend to prefer Mr. Mamdani.
Bill Knapp, a strategist and consultant for Fix the City, the pro-Cuomo super PAC that has raised roughly $25 million from billionaire donors and corporate interests, acknowledged that the first votes counted would probably not favor Mr. Cuomo.
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CNN
23 minutes ago
- CNN
What to watch in Tuesday's New York City mayoral primary
For all their disagreements, sources in both leading New York City mayoral primary campaigns tell CNN their assessment going into Election Day is the same: jump ball. Technically, there are 11 candidates on Tuesday's ballot. But the final weeks of the Democratic race have revolved around Andrew Cuomo, who resigned as New York governor in 2021, and Zohran Mamdani, an assemblyman and democratic socialist who has been in government for less than five years. Who wins may come down to which candidate more voters find completely, absolutely unacceptable. Cuomo still faces skepticism over the issues that led him to quit as governor – sexual harassment allegations he has denied and his handling of Covid-19 – while Mamdani's critics call out his thin government experience and question his past statements on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The primary's ranked-choice voting system could mean we don't know a winner until at least next week. Perhaps the most unpredictable factor: Election Day will take place under an oppressive heat dome that settled in over the East Coast at the beginning of the week, with stay-inside advisories potentially depressing turnout among voters Tuesday and amplifying the importance of those New Yorkers who voted early. Here's what to watch Tuesday night as New York Democrats make their picks for mayor and other offices: Cuomo has been running on his experience getting bills and projects passed. It didn't take His endorsement by his old boss Bill Clinton on Sunday made clear that he's positioning his campaign in part as the bulwark to the leftward, democratic socialist swing within parts of the Democratic Party. The party 'has been taken over by this far-left socialist mentality: dismantle the police, abolish the jail system, legalize prostitution, invest all the money in education—because if people have an education, nobody will commit a crime. What a beautiful concept. I think the Marx Brothers talked about that. It was called utopia. You know, it's a nice concept, but it has nothing to do with reality, right?' Cuomo said at a campaign event on Sunday. 'What has the Democratic Party produced for anybody recently? What has it done for the people in this city? The city's going backwards. What did it do for the country? The country's been going backwards. And that's the problem with the Democratic Party.' New York City has been facing several overlapping crises in the years since coming out of the pandemic. Together, those crises have created a sense for some that the city is out of control and not a place they either want to or can live anymore. Cuomo has campaigned as the strong, competent hand that New York needs to change that. Rep. Gregory Meeks, a Queens congressman who has endorsed Cuomo, told CNN he's hoping that national leaders take note of the issues Cuomo is focused on and the kind of coalition he is building, saying the campaign 'helps us as we're getting ready for the struggles and battles in 2026 to regain the House.' Talk of who could stand up to President Donald Trump has been a major factor in the race in a city that showed both a significant increase in support for the Republican in the 2024 election. New York has been struggling with the massive influx of migrants that occurred during the previous administration of President Joe Biden. It's also being targeted by Trump administration officials for more crackdowns. 'I do not support Mr. Cuomo,' Jennifer Browne, one city voter, told CNN. 'I take care of my elderly mom who has Alzheimer's and I'm very distressed by the way the whole nursing home issue and I believe he's a sexual harasser and women will not be protected under him.' Other voters pushed back on exactly those issues, saying they are ready to forgive Cuomo and in fact look fondly toward him because of how well they remember him managing the pandemic. Mamdani has been talking up the need to turn the page to a new generation of politics while pitching an array of ideas to deal with the city's affordability crisis that range from rent freezes to city-owned and operated grocery stores. The 33-year-old, three-term assemblyman has caught fire in large part from disaffection, particularly among younger voters, with what the Democratic Party has been and how the 67-year-old Cuomo can seem like a walking metaphor for what they are trying to leave behind. Mamdani has said his lack of experience is a virtue both in making him free of scandals and in opening him up to new ways of thinking about what government can and should do. While Cuomo talks about the need for effective compromise, Mamdani said his uncompromising approach is precisely what New Yorkers want. 'So much of what he celebrates as his record are the things that he worked his hardest to water down when he was actually in power,' Mamdani said. 'An idea is only as good as its implementation. And these ideas we have put forward of freezing the rent and making buses fast and free, delivering universal childcare, we put them forward because we're confident we can deliver them.' Mamdani drew adamant opposition from some Democrats due to his socialist proposals and anger over his positions related to antisemitism and support for Israel. Mamdani refused to say he believed Israel had the right to exist as a Jewish state or condemn the phrase 'globalize the intifada,' referencing an Arabic term used by Palestinians to describe their uprising against Israel. Cuomo repeatedly accused Mamdani of fueling antisemitic hate, a charge Mamdani denied. This is the second mayoral primary election in New York City that will use a ranked-choice system, allowing voters to pick their five top candidates, and then having their votes reallocated to the leading candidates over multiple rounds. In 2021, though current Mayor Eric Adams stayed in first place through all seven rounds, he won in the end by just 7,000 votes. All the candidates are bracing for an extended wait. Some have been running strategies geared toward the peculiarities of this kind of election: Mamdani and city Comptroller Brad Lander cross-endorsed each other, for example, each urging their supporters to rank the other second. Other groups have been pushing a 'Don't Rank Cuomo' effort. How this, or voters who still don't understand the ranked system and pick only one candidate or those who may rank Cuomo as their only second choice because they know his name, will work out in the math is impossible to predict. If no candidate wins a majority of the first-choice votes, it'll be a week before the New York City Board of Elections releases a first look at the ranked-choice results on July 1. And that's assuming the board won't have another round of problems that they are infamous for. Or that there aren't legal challenges brought on by other problems. Primary day is going to be the hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures expected to go over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. That may keep older voters home, potentially hurting Cuomo, but it could also complicated organizing for less-involved voters, which could hurt Mamdani and the other candidates. Last week, the New York City Board of Elections announced that it would be distributing fans and water to polling sites without air conditioning. Multiple campaigns have already voiced their concerns about how the heat is going to be handled and how it may affect the results. And it may not just be about the voters who do or don't turn out: if polling sites are not able to operate properly of voting machines break down in the heat, legal challenges are expected. Known as a heavily Democratic city, New York has actually elected a Republican in five of its last eight mayoral elections – two times for Rudy Giuliani and three times for Mike Bloomberg, who had re-registered as an independent by his last race but appeared as the Republican candidate and has since become a Democrat again. (He's endorsed and donated to Cuomo.) Cuomo is looking at staying in on his own ballot line if he doesn't win on Tuesday. And the Working Families Party has its own ballot line and is expected to give it to Mamdani if he doesn't become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic primary winner will face Adams, the incumbent mayor who opted out of this year's primary four years after winning it and being hailed as a national leader for Democrats. Adams was indicted last year on charges that he accepted improper gifts and favors, a case that was dismissed by the Trump administration. There will also be a Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa. Unlike in the primary, there is no ranked-choice voting in November. Whoever wins the most votes outright will become mayor. CNN's Gloria Pazmino contributed to this report.
Washington Post
25 minutes ago
- Washington Post
The politics of abortion have changed. Here's how.
Good morning, Early Birds. Here's hoping we see James Wood in the Home Run Derby. Send tips to earlytips@ Thanks for waking up with us. In today's edition … How abortion politics have changed in three years … An exciting race brewing in New York City … A well-funded, bipartisan anti-Trump political group launches … but first … Here's the latest on Iran. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran last night on Truth Social. Both sides would finish their operations against each other, then halt hostilities by around midnight Eastern time. 'This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!' he wrote. Israel and Iran didn't immediately confirm the ceasefire, leading to some skepticism from Democrats that it would hold. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was no agreement for a ceasefire but added that his country didn't plan military strikes after last night if Israel held off. Lawmakers may get some clarity when Congress is briefed today on the intelligence that led to the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Christopher Landau, deputy secretary of state; Steve Feinberg, deputy secretary of defense; Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence; and CIA Director John Ratcliffe are expected to brief lawmakers, two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss details of the briefings, told our colleagues Theodoric Meyer and Marianna Sotomayor. Democrats have been eager to see exactly what — if anything — has changed since March, when Gabbard said the U.S. intelligence community 'continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon' and that the country's supreme leader 'has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.' 'Have they changed their position? Did they get it wrong, and was Israel's intelligence community right? But if not, what in the hell is the president of the United States doing supporting a third country's policy and ignoring our own intelligence?' said Sen. Mark R. Warner (Virginia), the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee. 'Remember, messing with intelligence is how we got ourselves in the Iraq War.' Trump said the U.S. intelligence community's assessment was 'wrong' before launching the strikes, and Gabbard has since said the assessment was in line with Trump's policy. Iran responded to the U.S. strikes with a missile attack yesterday on al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. base in the Middle East. The Defense Department didn't report any casualties from the attack. The Qatari Defense Ministry said it intercepted the missiles. Trump said on Truth Social that Iran alerted the U.S. ahead of the attack. Iran's theocratic regime felt compelled to respond to the U.S. strikes but is fearful that a larger conflict can threaten its 46-year rule. The Trump administration's official line is that it isn't interested in regime change, but Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio refused to rule it out over the weekend, especially if Iran obtains nuclear weapons. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday that Trump was not committed to regime change and 'was just simply raising a question.' Where will Trump be today? He's off to The Hague for a NATO summit this morning. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged during a news conference yesterday that Iran is top of mind and reiterated the defense bloc's position that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon. But he stressed that the summit will be focused on threats to the Atlantic alliance, specifically Russia's war on Ukraine, and funding to address them. There is a conventional wisdom in Washington that abortion, a top issue for Democrats during elections in 2022 and 2024, is no longer the politically potent talking point it once was. The Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization three years ago today was politically seismic. It made abortion a top issue for Democratic-leaning voters overnight, helping the party raise hundreds of millions of dollars across the country, funding scores of ad campaigns about abortion and leading the party to overperform expectations two years into President Joe Biden's term. Then came 2024, when Republicans swept into control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, leading some election postmortems to suggest Democrats focused too much on abortion and not enough on prices and the economy. It's not that simple, said a range of Democrats we spoke to in the lead-up to this anniversary. To Jessica Mackler, the head of Emily's List, which aims to elect women who support abortion rights, elections are never as uncomplicated as one issue over another. 'This has always been a both-and proposition,' Mackler told us, noting that even in 2022, months after the Dobbs decision, there was a flurry of stories about Democrats focusing too much on abortion. 'To me, the imperative in front of us is that we have to both connect with voters on the way in which this recklessness and chaos in Washington is making their lives more difficult. And we also have to be clear in explaining where their Republican opponents are on abortion rights.' 'Abortion really did matter (in 2024),' said Yasmin Radjy, executive director of Swing Left, a liberal grassroots organization. 'But I think we got feedback from voters that while abortion mattered a lot … we weren't reaching voters on other issues that, honestly, were more front of mind for them.' Radjy argued abortion messaging needs to be tailored to various audiences, differentiating between speaking to voters in a state controlled by Democrats that has protected abortion rights versus voters in a state where Republicans have rolled back the protections at the state level. In the immediate aftermath of Dobbs, some states implemented trigger laws that banned or severely restricted the procedure, while others enacted abortion protections through legislation or voter initiatives. Voters in some Republican-controlled states such as Ohio, Kentucky and Kansas also scored wins for abortion rights proponents in the years after Dobbs. In states where laws protecting abortion have not been passed or restrictions are in place, Radjy predicted, the issue will be even more salient in the coming elections. 'It is no longer, 'trust us when we say this is going to be bad.' It is people feeling and experiencing how it impacts people's lives,' Radjy said, noting that recent research has shown voters are often moved by how abortion bans hurt people in their network of friends. 'That is the difference. It is not storytelling about reproductive freedom as an issue. It is storytelling on how these bans and Republican power are harming people.' Abortion is already a key issue in the top two races on the ballot this year. Democrats in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests are focusing on abortion rights, and both have plans to mark the anniversary by hitting their opponents on the issue. 'This is the first governor's race in Virginia and New Jersey since Roe v. Wade was overturned, placing abortion access back in the hands of the states,' said Johanna Warshaw, a spokeswoman at the Democratic Governors Association, who cast Republicans Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia and Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey as 'deeply out of step with voters on this issue.' Activist Amanda Zurawski agrees: She was galvanized to campaign heavily for Democrats last year after nearly dying from a complication to her pregnancy in Texas. She said she was encouraged by victories on ballot initiatives in states, where voters largely supported access to abortion, and said she would continue speaking out to keep the cause a central tenet for Democrats. 'When people see this affect them personally, that's when they start speaking up and fighting back,' Zurawski, who hasn't ruled out a run for office, told us. 'We saw, and we continue to see, time and again, that when reproductive freedom is on the ballot, it wins.' The House Democratic caucus will vote this morning for the ranking member of the Oversight Committee. It's a role that provides a prominent opportunity to confront members of the Trump administration in public. Four candidates are running: Reps. Stephen F. Lynch of Massachusetts, Kweisi Mfume of Maryland, Robert Garcia of California and Jasmine Crockett of Texas. Lynch, 70, is filling the role in an acting capacity following the death of Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia. He and Mfume, 76, are running on their seniority in the committee. Garcia, 47, and Crockett, 44, assert they represent younger perspectives and have experience using their social media standing to raise awareness of the committee's work. Garcia is seen as the front-runner, having won the endorsement of the House Democrats' steering committee on the first ballot last night. Voters in New York will head to the polls today for primary elections, including a closely watched mayoral race. The campaign — especially the race between the top two candidates, former New York governor Andrew M. Cuomo and New York state Rep. Zohran Mamdani — has all the contours of the broader fight within the Democratic Party: young versus old, liberal versus centrist and establishment versus insurgent. Cuomo, who resigned in disgrace as governor after sexual harassment accusations, has been consistently leading in the polls. Still, there is a belief that Mamdani — buoyed by a go-everywhere media strategy and clever social presence — is closing strong. A recent poll from Marist University found Cuomo leading Mamdani by 12 points in ranked-choice voting. It could be days until we know who actually won the contest, however. A handful of top candidates are running, and New York City's use of ranked-choice voting means voters can choose up to five candidates. If no candidate receives over 50 percent as a first choice, the different rankings come into play. This is where things could get interesting, as Sarah Ellison notes in her story on the race. Cuomo has elicited a visceral response from a range of candidates, leading to a potent 'anyone but Cuomo' contingent in the race. So if enough voters don't rank Cuomo at all, a first-choice lead could quickly evaporate, making the race unpredictable. A $15 million ad campaign will tell the stories of Americans who have been hurt by Trump's second-term policies, operatives behind the plan tell us, aiming to highlight where the president has fallen short of his campaign promises. The bipartisan campaign — called 'Home of the Brave' — brings together an array of anti-Trump political figures, including Susan Rice, a former top adviser to Democratic presidents; Barbara Comstock, a former Republican representative from Virginia; and Michael Luttig, a former Republican judge who testified before the congressional panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack by a mob of Trump supporters. The first slate of stories includes a Virginia mother who relies on federal research for her special-needs child, a small-business owner in Indiana harmed by Trump's tariffs and a federal contractor who lost her job because of Trump's cuts. 'Regular Americans aren't afraid to speak out about what's happening to our country,' said Sarah Longwell, a Republican operative who has worked to oppose Trump for years and is a member of the group's board. 'That's why we're launching Home of the Brave — to give regular Americans a place to tell their story about how the Trump administration is harming them, their communities and their country.' (Pennsylvania): A blistering heat wave is sweeping the central and eastern United States, with temperatures reaching into the 90s and 100s, affecting about 170 million Americans. Bring Me the News (Minnesota): American cities and states are being put on alert after the U.S. strikes on Iran, reflecting the Homeland Security Department's warning of a 'heightened threat environment' across the country. 'While there's no known threats at this time, we'll continue to monitor the situation and respond accordingly,' Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) said. The Spokesman-Review (Spokane, Washington): Washington state is joining several other states by levying tobacco taxes on Zyn, the popular nicotine pouches. Are you worried about the United States striking Iran's nuclear program? Do our readers see any echoes of the United States' conflict in Iraq? And are you surprised that the MAGA wing of the Republican Party is backing such an active foreign intervention after running on ending foreign wars? Send us your thoughts at earlytips@ or at and Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Canada's digital services tax is 'needlessly inflammatory' during trade talks with U.S.
Canada's implementation of a digital sales tax on foreign technology companies at the end of June could exacerbate tensions during key trade negotiations with the United States, say business leaders on both sides of the border. 'At this current time with a trade war and an active negotiation coming out of the G7, it just seems needlessly inflammatory,' Matthew Holmes, executive vice-president and chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said. 'We're not arguing for the government to make concessions that won't help realize a resolution to the trade conflict, but it does seem like it could lead to a worse outcome.' The digital services tax, which became law last year, applies a three per cent levy on revenue earned from digital services that rely on engagement, data and content contributions from Canadian users. It also applies to certain sales or licencing of Canadian user data. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne last week confirmed the tax would be going ahead at the end of this month, despite it being a major U.S. trade irritant. 'This was voted on by Parliament, so we're going ahead with the DST,' he said on Thursday. On June 30, businesses will have to make their first payments retroactive to Jan. 1, 2022. Most of the revenue will be collected from U.S. tech giants. The DST was first challenged by the Joe Biden administration, with former U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai launching dispute settlement consultations under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) last August. Since then, Donald Trump's administration has renewed its focus on what it views as unfair fines and levies on U.S. companies from foreign countries. In January, Trump also removed the U.S. from the Pillar One Reform by the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development that is trying to settle global taxing rights for cross-border digital services. Current U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer also mentioned the DST in a list of trade irritants with Canada in a March 1 report on foreign trade barriers. Other countries, including France, Italy and the United Kingdom, have implemented their own digital sales taxes. The Canadian federal government and the Trump administration are currently in talks on a new economic and security deal, with a deadline of July 21. Most Canadian goods are exempted from tariffs imposed by Trump, but there remains a 25 per cent levy on cars and a 50 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum. Asked if the federal government is considering a pause on the DST in the context of trade discussions with the U.S., Champagne said 'all of that is something that we're considering as part of broader discussions.' On June 13, 21 Republican lawmakers from the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter asking Trump to get the tax removed during trade negotiations with Canada or to retaliate if the tax is implemented. 'If Canada decides to move forward with this unprecedented, retroactive tax, it will set a terrible precedent that will have long-lasting impacts on global tax and trade practices,' the letter said. 'We are confident that any Digital Sales Tax Act collections will be met with a swift U.S. government response.' The letter said Canada's DST will cost U.S. tech companies $2 billion in retroactive taxes and $2.3 billion annually going forward. One of the signatories, Congressman Ron Estes, said the tax is discriminatory and a 'shakedown' of primarily U.S. tech companies. 'It is absurd to think that the United States would simply sit idly by while our allies retroactively target our innovators and treasury, and it is further proof that the United States must implement common sense measures like Section 899 in our recently passed House budget reconciliation bill,' Estes said in a statement. Section 899 seeks to tax foreign investment from countries Trump believes have unfair foreign taxes on American companies. The bill is currently making its way through the U.S. Senate. Graham Davies, chief executive of the Washington, D.C.-based Digital Media Association, which represents music streaming services, said the DST is coming at a time when tech companies are also being asked to pay another tax under Canada's recently passed Online Streaming Act. 'In terms of their concerns, it's the combination of having the digital services tax, which has already raised concerns in terms of the bilateral relationship between Canada and the U.S., added onto that the Online Streaming Act, which adds another five per cent in tax,' he said. Should Canada target Big Tech in trade war negotiations with the U.S.? Will Canada's Digital Services Tax survive Trump's tariffs assault? Holmes said most tech companies will end up downloading the costs of the DST onto Canadian companies that run businesses on their platforms and, ultimately, consumers. 'We have from the very beginning said this will be inflationary,' he said. 'As more businesses and as more of our lives include digital transactions, this will just add to the affordability crisis.' • Email: jgowling@ Sign in to access your portfolio
