Florida moves into top 5 of ESPN Basketball Power Index

USA Today

24-02-2025

Florida moves into top 5 of ESPN Basketball Power Index
Florida has made its way into the top five of the ESPN Basketball Power Index after a six-game win streak in conference play.
Since we last checked in three weeks ago, The Gators dropped a game to Tennessee, beaten Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State on the road, and taken down Oklahoma, South Carolina and Vanderbilt at home. Now 11-3 in SEC play, the Gators are cementing themselves as one of the top teams in the country. With just four games left in the regular season, Florida figures to be a top-10 team heading into the SEC Tournament.
Florida's BPI is 19.1, further broken down as 10.5 (seventh) on offense and 8.8 (13th) on defense. Compared to the last numbers recorded — 18.1, 9.9 and 8.2 — UF's offensive and defensive ratings are up by 0.6 each. Those changes are good for a two-spot jump on offense and a four-spot increase on defense.
Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes. We took two weeks this time.
'The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,' ESPN explains. 'BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.'
ESPN BPI Projections
ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 26.6-4.4 overall record and a 13.6-4.4 record in conference play — 1.9 more than three weeks ago — based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. With only conference games left on the schedule, those projections will continue changing by an identical amount.
The Gators have 6.4% odds to win the conference, down 1.1% from last time. Florida faces the ninth-toughest schedule moving forward with all four games ahead being Quadrant 1 matchups against SEC programs.
NCAA Tournament Resume
Florida's 24-3 record has the program ranked second overall in strength of record, which translates to a No. 1 seed. Three of the four top seeds are expected to go to SEC teams, Auburn and Alabama being the others.
Florida's overall strength of schedule is now ranked No. 55, down seven spots from a week ago, and its non-conference strength of schedule is up eight spots to No. 111. The Gators are 7-3 in 'quality matchups' (against the top 50 in BPI).
ESPN gives Florida 4.6% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 10% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (02.9%) or Elite Eight appearance (39.1%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (65.6%) and Round of 32 appearance (95.1%).
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