Who will be the next pope? The most diverse papal conclave in history begins

Australia Broadcast Center

07-05-2025

At Our Lady of the Rosary Church in Kellyville in western Sydney, a Filipino congregation gathers for Sunday mass.
Hymns are sung in English, Tagalog and Latin. In front of the panoramic stained glass window is an altar to memorialise Pope Francis, his smile beaming from a small frame.
Pope Francis is mourned by the Filipino congregation at Our Lady of the Rosary Church.
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ABC Radio National: Anna Levy
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This community and many like it are waiting eagerly for the conclave — the
If elected, Cardinal Tagle would be the first Asian pope in history.
Church youth leader Ian Epondulan says there's "a lot of speculation" in the Filipino community about what this week will bring.
"[We're] very excited to see whether there'll be a pope from the Philippines, such as Cardinal Tagle," Mr Epondulan says.
"But there's also an opportunity for the whole Filipino community, and also the Catholic population across the world, to really pray for the College of Cardinals that are going into this conclave.
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Whether it is a Filipino pope, an Italian pope or a pope from another country, I think the College of Cardinals will make the right decision.
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"There will be a celebration, whoever the pope might be," says church youth leader Ian Epondulan.
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ABC Radio National: Anna Levy
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During the conclave, members of the College of Cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, with no outside interference or influence. They will discuss the most pressing issues facing the church, then the 133 cardinals eligible to vote will submit their choice for pope via secret ballot.
When the new pope is chosen, white smoke will billow through the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. Shortly after that, the waiting crowd of Catholic faithful will lay their eyes on their new leader for the first time.
This system for electing the new pontiff dates back to the 13th century, and many of the rituals involved remain the same.
Photo shows
A graphic with textured red background, a black and white cut-out of the Sistine Chapel and St Peters Basilica, and black smoke.
The world's eyes are on the Vatican at the moment, with a new pope soon to be decided through the secretive process of the conclave. Here's how we will know when one is chosen.
But one important element has changed dramatically.
While past conclaves have comprised mainly Italian or European electors, this one will host cardinals from 72 countries, many in the Global South — any of whom could be selected as the next pope.
It is the most diverse conclave in history.
And experts say this is likely to affect not only the choice of pope but the future of the Catholic Church worldwide.
When was the first conclave?
For the first thousand years of Catholicism, clergy were selected by their peers, political rulers and the Roman laity.
The College of Cardinals was first formed in 1150, and didn't number more than 30 until the 15th century. Outsiders were forbidden; the title of cardinal was only bestowed upon members of the ancient clergy of Rome.
The system of the conclave was formalised by Pope Gregory X in 1274, after
As Christianity spread, cardinals were allowed to be appointed from other parts of Italy and Europe, but conclaves remained overwhelmingly European until the 20th century.
This was reflected in the popes of the day, too: of history's 266 pontiffs, 217 were born in modern-day Italy.
In the 1960s, the Second Vatican Council significantly modernised and internationalised the church, with Pope John XXIII famously saying it was time to "open the windows and let in the fresh air".
Under these reforms, Pope Paul VI and Pope John Paul II appointed many new cardinals from around the world.
After his election in 2013, Pope Francis — the first Argentinian pontiff in history — continued this trend, naming 163 cardinals from 76 countries.
How many cardinals did Pope Francis appoint?
During his 12-year pontificate, Pope Francis appointed 80 per cent of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote.
"One of the most striking dimensions of the Francis papacy was his efforts to internationalise the conclave, to make the church reflect not only the world, but the social fabric of the church itself," explains Benedict Coleridge, a scholar and academic of political and legal theory, trained at the University of Oxford and Yale Law School.
"Francis appointed cardinals from all over the world, but particularly from places that had hitherto been either under-represented or not represented at all in papal conclaves."
Pope Francis deliberately appointed cardinals from diverse locations.
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Reuters: Vatican Media
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Dr Coleridge says Pope Francis intentionally named cardinals who weren't in high-profile positions or dioceses, sometimes overlooking more established contenders.
"He was basically trying to say, 'Look, appointment to the College of Cardinals follows a life of expeditionary leadership and brave service, it isn't just associated with a seat of power'," he says.
Twenty-five of the cardinals appointed by the late pontiff hail from countries never before represented in the College of Cardinals. That includes Haiti, Timor Leste, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Sweden.
Many of them minister to minority Catholic populations, such as in Malaysia, Jerusalem and Mongolia.
Jerusalem is home to just 4,500 Catholics, who are served by Italian-born Archbishop Pierbattista Pizzaballa.
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Reuters: Ammar Awad
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This is a marked shift away from the historical perception of Western Europe as the epicentre of Catholicism.
"In Francis' view, there were no peripheries, only centres," Dr Coleridge says.
"[He believed] everywhere where the church is, where people are living out their lives in pursuit of God, that is a centre … and the church needs to look at itself in those terms."
Who will be the next pope?
Given the geographically diverse makeup of the conclave, there's a strong possibility the next pope could come from outside of Europe.
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While each cardinal has his own social and political views, those from non-European locations may have priorities in common, Dr Coleridge says.
He points to a moment in the recent film, Conclave, in which the cardinal of Kabul gives a powerful speech about witnessing war and suffering.
"The truth is that there will be cardinals in that conclave who could make the same speech," he says.
"There will be the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who offered himself as a replacement hostage during the [Israel-Gaza] ceasefire. There will be the cardinal of Rabat, Morocco, who has been right at the coalface of inter-religious dialogue with Islam.
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[Each] will be speaking with a really powerful voice on behalf of his society.
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Spanish cardinal Cristóbal López Romero (centre) has served as the Archbishop of Rabat, Morocco since March 2018.
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Reuters: Yara Nardi
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As wars rage on in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan, a leader with this understanding could be considered desirable in the years to come.
Joanne Pierce, professor emerita in religious studies at the College of the Holy Cross in Massachusetts, USA, agrees that on-the-ground experience will likely be an important factor. But she says there are other elements to consider, too.
"Lengthy experience doing pastoral ministry outside of Europe or even North America would be an important element in the resume of any serious candidate for election," she says.
"However, cardinal-electors will also have to look at other areas of experience that potential candidates have or don't have.
"Does the candidate have significant experience in the central administration of the Church or other committees? How well have they led their own dioceses … or performed other administrative duties? What kind of education have they had, since popes also have to deal with theological issues and interpretations of canon law?"
Another issue that may emerge during the conclave is climate change, especially as several of the cardinal electors have lived experience of climate crisis.
Papua New Guinea's cardinal, for example, has
Pope Francis has consistently
"East Timor's [cardinal] and other cardinals from Pacific countries will be concerned with the fates of their neighbours," Professor Pierce says.
East Timor cardinal Virgilio do Carmo da Silva hosted Pope Francis during his apostolic trip to Asia in 2024.
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Reuters: Guglielmo Mangiapane
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"The cardinals from Papua New Guinea and Australia are aware of the eventual fate of Tuvalu and Kiribati [which are at risk of rising sea levels]. Southeast Asia is also threatened.
"For some of the more conservative cardinals, these environmental issues are concerning, but not immediately urgent. But cardinals in or near these areas should, I think, emphasise the need to look to the future now."
How is Catholicism changing?
As the geographic makeup of the conclave has shifted, so has the global face of Catholicism.
"The face of the Catholic church is already changing, regardless of who is going to be elected," Professor Pierce says.
"The Catholic church is growing absolutely astonishingly in the Global South: South America, Africa, South Asia, parts of East Asia, Oceania."
Priests take part in a Requiem Mass for Pope Francis in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Catholicism is growing.
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Reuters: Arlette Bashizi
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At the same time, it's shrinking in places like Australia, where the percentage of the population who identify as Catholic has
"For a pope to be elected from any of these areas [where Catholicism is growing] would have an enormous impact on the Catholic community in those areas," Professor Pierce says.
"A pope who had been born there, grew up in in the culture and knew the issues important to the local communities, would mean that they had been 'seen' — acknowledged as of central importance to the global Catholic community, not just … missionary territories that still needed leadership from Europeans to live as 'genuine' Catholics.
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Imagine what it must be like to have a pope from your country; to say, 'He's one of us'.
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For Catholics around the world, the pope signifies the future of their church.
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ABC Radio National: Anna Levy
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Regardless of who is elected pope, Mr Epondulan says the conclave is a unifying moment for his community.
"It's an opportunity [for] Filipinos [to] see that they belong to a wider community, not just within the Philippines, and that the Catholic Church is universal," he says.
"I think the shape of the Australian church is changing and evolving, and creating a new identity for the church of the future."
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