Is Arizona expected to have a wetter monsoon than last year? What to know
"It's a dry heat" may be something Arizonans living in the southern and central parts of the state say to themselves and others to justify living in a place where opening the front door can feel similar to opening an oven, but it's not always the case.
Though many of the state's summer days can feel like walking on the surface of the sun, some can feel noticeably different during Arizona monsoon season, which begins in mid-June and goes through September. What would have been a 116-degree day could be 106 instead, with higher humidity and potential dust storms to contend with.
The National Weather Service recently released its outlook for the 2025 monsoon to give people an idea of what to expect as summer approaches. Here's what to know.
The 2024 Arizona monsoon season had stark contrasts throughout the state, as the northern and southeastern parts received near-to-above normal precipitation, although the Phoenix region fell well below normal levels, according to a video presentation the agency's Tucson office posted on YouTube.
This, along with an abnormally dry winter, left much of the state at a level of extreme drought, the weather service said. As of May 20, much of northern Arizona was in moderate to severe drought, with a small portion of the Four Corners region being only abnormally dry — the lightest drought level.
While abnormally dry conditions have limited the growth of grass and brush, they have also dried out vegetation that remains even further. Dry lightning or thunderstorms that lack much precipitation or were expected to be the main trigger behind wildfires at the beginning of the monsoon.
The weather service said Arizona typically sees over 500,000 lightning strikes per season, with them typically occurring between noon and the early evening.
In terms of actual rainfall, Arizona could see roughly two inches in lower deserts, including the Phoenix area, and up to 16 inches in mountain ranges. Metro Phoenix typically experiences about 10 days with measurable rainfall during the monsoon, while the higher mountainous areas see roughly 30 to 50 days of rainfall.
The weather service projected Phoenix with a 43% chance of above normal precipitation during monsoon season, a 33% chance of near normal precipitation and a 24% chance of having below normal precipitation. For context, Phoenix had an average of 2.43 inches of rainfall during monsoon seasons from 1991 through 2020, according to the weather service.
Other cities that leaned toward having above normal rain included Tucson, Flagstaff, Prescott, Kingman and Show Low, among others.
The weather service recommended people check their local forecasts before going out and ensure they're signed up to receive weather warnings.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Above normal rain expected this monsoon, National Weather Service says
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