Study: Medicaid cuts would take a toll

Politico

3 hours ago

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WASHINGTON WATCH
The changes to Medicaid that the House passed last month and the Senate is now considering could lead to between 8,000 and nearly 25,000 preventable deaths, according to a new study published Monday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The changes, which are part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, include work requirements for most adults to qualify for Medicaid coverage and criteria under which states could lose a part of their federal payments if they offer coverage to undocumented people.
How so: Researchers at Harvard Medical School and the City University of New York's Hunter College calculated the health harms that would affect an estimated more than 7 million people who, according to the Congressional Budget Office, would lose their Medicaid coverage.
The death estimates are based on peer-reviewed analyses of the effects of previous Medicaid reforms, such as a Massachusetts health care reform and an analysis of Medicaid expansion in three states before the Affordable Care Act took effect.
Why it matters: 'Implementing the current House bill would lead to 1.9 million people losing their personal physician, 1.3 million forgoing needed medications, and [380,270] women going without a mammogram,' the researchers wrote.
More than 1 million people would incur medical debt, and about a quarter-million people would be refused treatment because of such debts, they add.
Researchers note that their projections should be seen as approximations since they're based on CBO estimates of coverage loss that might be off the mark and on extrapolation from studies that assessed policy changes similar but not identical to those in the House bill.
What's next: On Monday, Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) unveiled the Senate's portion of the bill the House passed in May.
The draft Senate version could make it harder for states that expanded Medicaid to use financial loopholes to get higher Medicaid payments, POLITICO's Robert King reports.
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WORLD VIEW
European Union member countries neighboring Russia and Belarus are preparing their hospitals for war.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are among the nations revisiting crisis-response protocols for health-care facilities, organizing training exercises, investing in ballistic helmets and vests and shifting operating theaters underground, POLITICO's Giedre Peseckyte reports.
Why it matters: Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, the threat of military conflict has loomed large for those countries that were once part of the USSR or of Russia's sphere of influence and are now EU and NATO members.
'It's not a question of if [Russia] will attack,' said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board, which oversees preparedness for crises from pandemics to war. 'It's a question about when.'
While an attack on a NATO country should, in theory, trigger a response from the military alliance, including the United States, the Eastern-front countries see war readiness as urgent.
How so: Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics in Lithuania, which is about 30 miles from the border with Belarus — a country ruled by a dictator aligned with Russian
President Vladimir Putin is developing underground infrastructure, shelters, helicopter landing sites and autonomous systems that would allow it to function even if electricity or water supplies were cut off.
Along with supplying body armor for ambulance crews, Estonia would distribute satellite phones to maintain communications if traditional networks fail. Electrical generators are being installed across the country's health care system, following Ukraine's experience with Russian strikes that routinely cut off civilian power. And there are plans to establish an independent internet network, if needed.
The small Baltic country is also procuring mobile medical units — pop-up treatment facilities deployable in emergencies — which should help address the currently limited critical-care capacity in Europe.
Estonia has also allocated nearly $29 million for mass casualty supplies, including orthopedic gear, tourniquets and trauma kits.
The stockpiles would ensure that hospitals can operate until supplies from allies reach them, Vaiknemets said, adding that NATO is crucial to securing supply routes.
In Latvia, the Covid-19-era demand that health care facilities maintain a three-month supply of medicines comes in handy for war preparations.
'I have never thought that I would say thanks to Covid, but thanks to Covid … we found financial resources,' said Agnese Vaļuliene, health ministry state secretary.