Louisville area under a slight risk for severe weather days before Kentucky Derby. What to know
Showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through the Louisville area April 29 could bring severe impacts, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Louisville.
"Pockets of damaging wind and hail" are the main concerns associated with the system, and heavy rains could fall in some areas by nighttime, officials with NWS Louisville said in a statement April 28. The storms are set to move through sometime between 1-10 p.m., just prior to the arrival of a cold front in Louisville.
Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort are among the cities included in the Storm Prediction Center's "slight risk" area for severe weather, the second-highest of five levels.
Strong winds could damage homes and trees, lightning strikes may threaten outdoor activities, and heavy rains might lead to localized flooding and ponding on roads, NWS Louisville officials said.
"There could be a hail threat as well, but the tornado threat is pretty low for this round of severe weather we are expecting Tuesday," NWS Louisville meteorologist C.J. Padgett said. "Of course, with lightning and thunderstorms, lightning is always a concern for any outdoor activities especially."
No severe weather is in the April 30 forecast, though some lingering showers and thunderstorms could lead to minor flooding issues if there is localized heavy rainfall. Severe threats could resume May 1, though Padgett said the weather service is not yet confident about how strong the storm impacts might be.
"With Thursday, we're looking at another round of showers and storms expected to develop out of our west ahead of another cold front," Padgett said.
Thurby crowds at Churchill Downs may face showers and thunderstorms at the racetrack. There is also a chance of rain May 2 during the Kentucky Oaks, so it might be a good idea to carry a rain jacket or poncho for both days, Padgett said.
Louisville will also see some warm temperatures this week, with a high of around 84 April 29, and highs near 80 April 30 and May 1, according to NWS Louisville's 7-day forecast. The weekend will be slightly cooler, with high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s anticipated. Sunny skies will make for pleasant conditions for outdoor activities, Padgett said.
Here's a closer look at Louisville's forecast for the following three days.
April 29
Day: There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm from 2-5 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 5 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 11-14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 5-7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
April 30
Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then a chance of showers between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11 p.m., then a slight chance of showers between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
May 1
Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
More: Will it rain on the Kentucky Derby? Here's Louisville's latest weather forecast as of Monday
Reach reporter Leo Bertucci at lbertucci@gannett.com or @leober2chee on X, formerly known as Twitter
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville weather: Slight risk for severe storms Tuesday
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