Heat stunned by unraveling. How low can it go (in reality and in the standings)? An update
As this debacle of a season somehow keeps getting worse, the Heat awoke Tuesday in a sobering state: losers of eight in a row, 10 games under .500 for the first time in nine years and now 10th in the East, the final spot that qualifies for the NBA play-in tournament.
'We're going through the dark days right now,' Jaime Jaquez Jr. said.
So how low can it go?
In the case of the losing streak, that's very much in question, with top six-seeds Detroit and Houston up next for Miami at Kaseya Center, where the Heat has lost five in a row. The Pistons' game at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday will be nationally televised by ESPN.
In the case of the standings, 10th might be as low as the Heat realistically can go, unless Miami (29-39) loses nearly all of its 14 remaining games and the No. 11 Toronto Raptors (24-35) or No. 12 Brooklyn Nets (23-45) win most of their games.
While a fall to 11 is unlikely because Miami still has a 5.5-game lead over the Raptors, it's not out of the question. Miami has six games remaining against top-six seeds; the Raptors have one (home to Detroit). Also, nine of Toronto's final 13 games are against teams that will miss the playoffs.
But the fact the bottom of the East is too horrendous to Miami to fall out of the play in is of little consolation during the longest losing streak of Erik Spoelstra's career.
'There's no one that's absolved from this,' Spoelstra said Monday night after the Heat's 116-95 loss at the Knicks. 'I have not come up with enough answers for this team. I have to do a better job. Our group has to do a better job.
'We've been racking our time, our brains, everything, trying to find solutions for that. We have not come up with solutions and we've pretty much tried everything. This has been one of the biggest challenges of a regular season that I've been a part of. And we just have to stay the course.'
If the Heat remains 10th in the standings, Miami would visit the No. 9 seed (currently Chicago) in a play-in game on April 15 or 16. The loser of that game would begin its offseason. The winner of that game would play the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game, for the right to play No. 1 Cleveland in the first round.
After Monday's loss, the Heat stands three games behind No. 7 Atlanta (32-36) and 2.5 games behind No. 8 Orlando (32-37). Though the Bulls and Heat have the same 29-39 record, Chicago owns the No. 9 seed because it already has clinched the tiebreaker with Miami.
One factor that could save Miami from the 10th seed: The Bulls are just two games into a difficult stretch of nine games against Western Conference teams, with only two (Lakers, Dallas) at home and Phoenix, Sacramento, the Lakers, Denver and Oklahoma City remaining on the road. That stretch ends March 31.
But if the Bulls survive this stretch and lead the Heat by the end of March, Miami would be in trouble because Chicago's schedule to end the season isn't difficult aside from one road game at Cleveland. Otherwise, the Bulls have Toronto, Portland, the Heat and Washington at home and travel to Charlotte and Philadelphia.
The Heat schedule, which has 14 games left, includes six matchups against good teams with top-six seeds (home against Detroit, Houston, Golden State in Jimmy Butler's homecoming, Memphis, Milwaukee and at Boston); two against teams in play-in position (Atlanta at home, Chicago on the road) and six against teams bound for the draft lottery (two against Washington, home to Charlotte, two against Philadelphia and at New Orleans).
As for surpassing Atlanta or Orlando for a seventh or eighth seed, that's more complicated.
Atlanta leads the season series with Miami, 2-1, and would win the tiebreaker by winning at Miami on March 27. And the Hawks — already three games ahead of Miami — have an easier remaining schedule than Miami, featuring only four games against current top six seeds (home to Golden State and the Knicks, at Houston and Milwaukee). Atlanta's 13 games remaining also include two in the final week against Orlando.
As for Orlando, the Magic also has just four games remaining against top six seeds - two fewer than Miami has. Those four toughest Magic games: home to Houston, the Lakers and Boston and at Indiana. The Magic also has home games against three Western teams in play-in position: Dallas, Sacramento and the Clippers.
The Heat and Magic finish the season series tied, 2-2. If the Heat beats the Hawks to also finish 2-2 against Atlanta, a Heat-Magic or Heat-Hawks tiebreaker would come down to record within the division, followed by conference record.
Entering the Hawks' game at Charlotte on Tuesday night, the Heat stands 7-5 inside its division, while the Magic is 8-3 and Atlanta 7-4. The regular season ends April 13, with Miami playing host to Washington and Orlando visiting Atlanta, both at 1 p.m.
'We just got to figure out how to sustain a full game,' Tyler Herro said Monday night before the team left Madison Square Garden. 'It's been our problem really all year... Obviously, nobody feels sorry for us. We have to dig ourselves out of this hole. It all starts in this locker room.'
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