Best Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Player Props, ATS Bets: Can NY Force Game 7?

Newsweek

2 days ago

The Knicks are 4-point road underdogs vs. the Pacers on Saturday night as they look to force a Game 7 at MSG on Monday.
The Knicks are 4-point road underdogs vs. the Pacers on Saturday night as they look to force a Game 7 at MSG on Monday.
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In just about any series besides the ongoing Eastern Conference Finals battle between the Knicks and Pacers, the jarring contrast between Games 4 and 5 would have shocked even the most plugged-in NBA fans and bettors.
But in a matchup in which the road underdog (Indy in Games 1 and 2 and New York in Game 3) won the first three games of the series, with Games 1 and 3 both featuring 20-point comebacks, of course Game 5 was a curveball.
Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Betting Odds
DK FD bet365 NYK spread +4 (-110) +4 (-110) +4 (-110) IND spread -4 (-110) -4 (-110) -4 (-110) NYK ML +145 +152 +150 IND ML -175 -180 -180 Total 221.5 (o-110; u-110) 221 (o-110; u-110) 221.5 (o-110; u-110)
The Knicks looked helpless to stop Tyrese Haliburton and Co. in Game 4 last Tuesday night, but they turned in their best defensive effort of the playoffs two nights later in Game 5 to keep the series alive.
After allowing Indiana to rack up 130 points on 51 percent FG shooting and an offensive rating of 126.8 in Game 4, New York stifled the Pacers at MSG two nights later. Indiana finished Game 5 with just 94 points on 40.5 FG shooting, with 20 turnovers and an offensive rating of just 95.4.
Outside of heavy workloads for Knicks stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, it's hard to pinpoint what to expect tonight. That won't stop us from giving out our favorite Knicks vs. Pacers player props and best bets for tonight's game, though.
How to Watch Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6
Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT/truTV/Max
Knicks vs. Pacers Eastern Conference Finals Series Odds
DraftKings : NYK +290; IND -360
FanDuel : NYK +290; IND -360
bet365
: NYK +270; IND -340
Best Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Player Props
This is the rare case where it makes sense to deviate from our stance on obvious prop plays, which is that they're usually not the way to go.
Given how unlikely it is that Indiana is suddenly going to unearth an answer for either Jalen Brunson or Karl-Anthony Towns, though (besides getting them in foul trouble and off the court), we like them both to have big nights, again, in Game 6.
Jalen Brunson Over 31.5 Points (-102 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Brunson's raw numbers this postseason are the first sign that this is the rare instance where taking a player at even money to score 32 points is justifiable.
He's averaging 33 points in this series, with 31 or more in four of five. This posteason, in 17 games, he's scored 30 or more points 10 times, and that's despite Boston holding him under 30 points in five of six games in that series.
More importantly, Brunson has been able to beat whoever the Pacers have thrown at him, and top wing defender Aaron Nesmith's coming off a concerning showing for Indy.
After appearing to sprain his ankle late in Game 3, Nesmith was effective on both ends of the court in Game 4 (16 points in 32 minutes), but he didn't look like himself in Game 5, as he played just 16 minutes -- well below his postseason average of 29.5 minutes per game.
Looking at his efficiency, Brunson has shot at least 48 percent from the field in four of five games in this series, his usage rate has stayed above 30 percent in all but Game 5, and his true shooting and effective field goal percentages have both been consistently jaw-dropping.
Unless he quickly gets in substantial foul trouble and/or tonight's game is played at a snail's pace, Brunson should be able to cash this ambitious points prop.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 34.5 Pts + Rebs (+100 at FD) -- 1 unit
The question for prop bettors eyeing Towns tonight is whether to take his points, rebounds, or points + rebounds (P+R) prop. There's a strong case that the right answer is "D) all of the above," but we're going to stick with just one here.
For a guy who has averaged 37.2 P+R per game in this series, the most value lies in taking Towns at even money to reach 35 P+R.
Despite dealing with foul trouble in almost every game of this series, Towns has been able to bully the Pacers' bigs as both a scorer and a rebounder. And remember, he also averaged over 30 points per game and 12 rebounds per game in three regular-season Knicks vs. Pacers matchups.
I expect more of the same tonight from Towns as he looks to keep the Knicks' season alive.
He cleared this line in Game 5 despite going 1-for-4 from 3 and making a series-low 3 free throws on a series-low 5 free-throw attempts (he's averaging 6 made FT on 7.4 FTA in the series).
Also worth noting: he had 17 points and 10 rebounds at halftime on Thursday night, but he committed three fouls in the third quarter, which forced him to the bench for more than half of that frame.
We won't jinx this by calling it a slam-dunk, but there are a lot of reasons to trust Towns to reach this number, especially if he somehow manages to avoid foul trouble.
Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Pick, Best Bets
Nothing would shock me in this game, which is a stay-away in a lot of ways given how up-and-down both these teams have been throughout the ECF.
But between how well the Knicks defended the Pacers in Game 5 and how few answers Indiana has come up with for Brunson and Towns, I'm going with New York to force a Game 7 in a series that has felt destined to go the distance since it got underway last week.
In addition to New York to cover, let's also go with Indiana to get an early spark from its home crowd and cover the tight first-quarter spread.
Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Best Bets:
Knicks +4 (-110 at FanDuel) -- 0.5 units
Pacers 1Q -1.5 (-106 at FD) -- 0.5 units
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