Starmer loss in Hamilton by-election could set the dominoes falling

Telegraph

a day ago

It was a by-election in Hamilton, South Lanarkshire, where the SNP made its breakthrough onto the national political stage in 1967.
The party had only held one parliamentary seat before – and only for three months in the 1940s – but a 38 per cent swing away from Labour propelled Winnie Ewing to the House of Commons and gave the SNP a UK-wide platform.
Next Thursday, when the area goes to the polls for a Scottish Parliament by-election, Nigel Farage is hoping to repeat the trick in reverse.
With attention focused on Reform's high-profile defections and victories in the English local elections last month, Mr Farage's slow creep north of the border has been unnoticed by many in Westminster.
But a poll last month found that if a Scottish election were to be held, the SNP would sweep back to power in Holyrood and Reform would emerge as the main opposition party, with 21 per cent of the popular vote.
Thursday's by-election is a chance for Mr Farage's party to show it can seize hold of anti-establishment, anti-nationalist sentiment in Scotland and sell its brand of punchy opposition politics to non-traditional Reform voters.
But it also represents a significant threat to Sir Keir Starmer, whose party became the largest in Scotland last year for the first time since 2010.
Labour's path to a majority has historically run through Scotland, and Sir Keir's chance of winning another victory at the next general election will partly depend on his ability to keep hold of those seats.
John Swinney, the SNP leader, has said that the Hamilton by-election is a 'straight race' between his party and Reform, but it is Sir Keir who has the most to lose if Mr Farage wins.
Already there are Left-wing MPs, including in Scotland, who think the Prime Minister has gone too far on benefit cuts, and fear he will go further still in this autumn's Budget.
At the last Scottish elections in 2021, Labour increased its vote share by 4 per cent in Hamilton and looked on course to challenge the SNP.
The constituency's Westminster seat, Hamilton and Clyde Valley, is represented by Imogen Walker, who is married to Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir's chief of staff.
A third-place finish in Hamilton next week would be a serious knock to the Labour leader's credibility, and could open a rift between him and Anas Sarwar, the charismatic Scottish Labour leader.
In a sign of Labour's woes, Angela Rayner was forced to abandon a campaign stop on Friday because of protests.
She denied 'doing a runner' after pro-Palestinian demonstrators shouted 'Rayner, Rayner you can't hide, you're supporting genocide'.
A group of protesters stationed themselves by what appeared to be Scottish Labour's campaign office holding Palestine and Scottish Socialist Party flags.
If the Labour Left moves against Sir Keir, it is clear that two goals will emerge.
The first is a change of personnel at the top – with target number one being Rachel Reeves.
The 'iron chancellor' has angered the party's Left-wing grass roots with a series of spending cuts that are set to continue next month with her spending review.
But what is far less clear is whom those people would accept as a replacement, given that the Cabinet is stacked with centrist Starmerites. Ms Rayner may be the only face on the current front bench who could win Sir Keir Left-wing support.
More realistic, perhaps, would be a change in course on fiscal policy ahead of the Budget.
The two-child benefit cap, winter fuel allowance cuts and changes to disability benefits have all led to complaints about the direction of Sir Keir's government.
An about-turn on those policies, likely with a watering down of Ms Reeves's fiscal rules, would be popular with some on the Labour Left but unpopular with the markets.
For now, these threats are far off, and Sir Keir's control of his party is holding. Ms Reeves's spending review is likely to pass without a major rebellion in the Commons or resignation from the Cabinet.
But should Reform win on Thursday, Mr Farage may find the constituency acts once again as the first domino to fall for a challenger party. Then, the test for Downing Street will be far greater indeed.