Khamenei, Netanyahu and Trump's Keys

Asharq Al-Awsat

a day ago

It's no simple feat to make Tehran live at the mercy of Israeli fighter jets and for the Israeli army to declare that the skies leading to the Iranian capital are open to its aircraft. It's no simple feat to make Tel Aviv come under a barrage of Israeli missiles and for its people to come out of the shelters and observe the destruction around them.
The Israeli defense minister declared that Tehran 'will burn' if it continued to target civilians, meanwhile the Iranians watched as their facilities went up in flames and were turned to rubble.
We aren't just being confronted by two countries with no shared borders trading strikes. We are facing a cross-border seismic shift. Following the deadly blows the Israeli army dealt in recent months in Gaza and Lebanon, the Israelis were deluded into believing that they were living in a fortified fortress. They awoke to the reality that the fortress was actually weak despite possessing an extraordinary arsenal. They realized that the walls of the fortress are riddled with holes and that the Iranian missiles can infiltrate them.
After decades of expanding in the region, the Iranians believed that they were living in a fortified fortress and that the wars in the region were always going to be waged in other people's countries. They believed that the previous blows between Iran and Israel were nothing more than an exchange of messages. The Iranians awoke to the reality that their fortress is weak, with holes so large they allowed Israel to control their skies and the Mossad to infiltrate their land and homes. The massacre of generals and nuclear scientists revealed that Israel's breach of Tehran was much deeper than its breach of Beirut.
The most difficult battle is that of the image; when the government appears lost or confused and the army appears incapable or in disarray. People grow more fearful when their faith in their guards becomes shaken.
On October 7, 2023, the Israelis were crippled by fear and the world was struck with awe. For several hours, the Israeli government seemed absent or paralyzed and the army unable to protect the fortress. On June 13, 2025, Iran appeared to be in a similar position.
It wasn't easy on October 7, 2023, to inform Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Yehya al-Sinwar's attack. On June 13, it wasn't easy at all to inform the Iranian supreme leader about what had happened to the military commanders and nuclear scientists. It wasn't easy for Netanyahu to watch the funerals caused by the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and for Ali Khamenei to watch the funerals of the generals and scientists, and the killing of figures he had decorated with medals in recognition of their loyalty and roles.
The Israeli attack on Iran launched a mutually destructive operation. The two countries and the region entered what appeared to be a tunnel where Iran doesn't have the ability to stop the Israeli raids and Israel cannot stop the barrage of Iranian rockets. Escalating the fight will impact regional security and energy prices and bring about images the people have never seen before despite the horrors they have witnessed over the years.
This truly is the mother of all battles in the region. It is more dangerous than all the wars the Middle East has seen in half a century given the arsenals involved and the expected repercussions.
Was Iran wrong in failing to recognize what it meant for Donald Trump to return to the White House? Was it wrong to ignore his 60-day deadline and the severe consequences of failing to make a deal? Should it have sensed the danger when Iranian advisors fled Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa sat down in the presidential palace and Hassan Nasrallah was taken out of the equation? Was it wrong when it failed to assure the International Atomic Energy Agency? Did it underestimate the dangerousness of a dangerous player and gambler called Benjamin Netanyahu and the growing hostility of Israel's military and security institutions in wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood?
It will be difficult for the world to live for a long time at the beat of the destructive blows between Israel and Iran. It won't be long before it urges Netanyahu and the supreme leader to consider their options. Iran doesn't have that many. Expanding the conflict by attacking American bases will only deepen its crisis and so will the closure of the Hormuz Strait. The only solution lies in returning to Trump's table, perhaps with Russian and Chinese help. Trump's table means abandoning the nuclear dream and opening the door to Iran normalizing ties with the US, the West and the world. This means changing Iran without changing its regime.
The situation in the Middle East is worrisome and scary. Israeli fighter jets violate regional countries to pounce on targets in Iran. The Iranian rockets and drones violate the skies of regional countries to attack targets in Israel. The fight between Israel and Iran has taken the spotlight from the horrors in Gaza and crises elsewhere.
The Middle East needs to get out of the tunnels of death, destruction and injustice. It needs countries to respect the borders and sovereignty of others and to recognize people's rights. It needs Israel to adopt a different policy and for Iran to seek different options. It needs to know the borders of a country called Israel and the limits of Iran's role in the region.
Netanyahu does not have the green light to wage a long open war. It is difficult to believe that Iran is capable of waging a long fight that would shake the foundations of its image and economy and expose the fragility of its regime. A crushing victory will be difficult to achieve. The fight is costly, and Trump is looking at his watch. He seems confident that Israel won't be able to achieve peace without US support and that Iran has no other choice than taking the path laid out by the 'Great Satan.'
Trump holds the keys. He alone can sway the battle in Israel's favor. He alone can summon Netanyahu to the negotiating table. He alone can save Iran from Israeli strikes. However, the holder of the keys is not a charity, and Iran will pay a price in negotiations he is sponsoring.