Nato summit clouded by Trump's attempts to secure Iran ceasefire
US President Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement after ordering strikes on Iran shifted the focus at the outset of the Nato summit on Tuesday, overshadowing pledges of increased defence spending.
The involvement of Mr Trump in the Iran crisis came as other Nato leaders arrived for a shortened and carefully controlled summit in The Hague that revolves around an expansion of European militaries.
Mr Trump's attempts to arbitrate between Israeli and Iranian high command is likely to mute criticism of the US military operation on Iran. Cracks appeared as France and Norway described the strikes ordered by Washington at the weekend as illegal.
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said he "would not agree that this is against international law". For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday avoided referring to the ceasefire as a done deal. "I think [Mr Trump] made some important and very positive statements," Mr Macron said after a two-day state visit to Norway. He added that "the situation remains very fragile".
"There is so much uncertainty that leaders are genuinely quite afraid to say anything negative about Trump that could result in damage to their economic interests or their security interests, so they are playing it safe," said Jane Kinninmont, chief executive of the UN Association of the UK and co-author of an independent experts' report published last year on Nato's engagement with the Middle East.
"For most Europeans, a Middle East war is an unwanted and unpopular distraction from what they want to focus their military spending on, which is defence preparations against Russia," Ms Kinninmont said.
Nato's role in the Middle East, once limited to military training and liaison, has now changed, experts have told The National.
Iran ceasefire
Ahead of the summit, Mr Rutte appeared eager to keep the focus on the alliance's priorities and not the Middle East. Yet he recognised it would be a topic of conversation in The Hague, despite not featuring on the agenda.
The summit has been carefully choreographed to avoid any strife, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who infamously clashed with Mr Trump in the Oval Office, deciding not to attend talks no Wednesday, though he will take part in a pre-summit dinner hosted by the Dutch King Willem-Alexander.
Five per cent
Talks between leaders are scheduled to last three hours and focus on locking in Mr Trump's commitment to the alliance in exchange for members spending 5 per cent of their GDP on defence. Nato's 32 countries have agreed to dedicate 3.5 per cent to core military needs by 2035, and 1.5 per cent to broader security-related areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure. "This is a quantum leap that is ambitious, historic and fundamental to securing our future," Mr Rutte said.
To some in the Middle East, Nato suffers from a negative perception associated with US military operations and the chaos that ensued after the 2011 Libya intervention, as well as incidents such as the botched evacuation of Kabul in 2021. But today, the Nato mission in Iraq, which focuses on building up the capacity of the nation's security forces, is widely viewed as a success, while the alliance on June 12 signed an agreement for the establishment of a diplomatic Nato Liaison Office in Amman.
At its 2023 summit in Vilnius, Nato highlighted that security challenges in the Middle East posed a security threat and launched a comprehensive review of its engagement in the region. Yet most ideas later put forward by experts have been swept under the carpet since Mr Trump's re-election to the White House in January – and understandably so, said Kristina Kausch, deputy managing director and senior fellow at the German Marshal Fund's southern division.
"As much as stronger engagement in the [Global] South may be professed at the rhetorical level, Nato is de facto very much, and for good reason, focused on its primary task of collective defence in Ukraine and Nato's Eastern flank," Ms Kausch said.
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Middle East Eye
an hour ago
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The meeting was framed primarily around Pakistan's role in diffusing a recent India-Pakistan conflict, but the ongoing Iran-Israel confrontation at the time, and the potential for direct US military involvement, were central to the discussions, experts believe. After the meeting, Trump said that 'Pakistan knows Iran very well, better than most', and added that Islamabad was 'not happy' with the current escalation. 'In every respect, this conflict is likely to have serious repercussions for Pakistan, and we must begin preparing for its impact' - Pakistani security official While US officials extended public thanks for Pakistan's help in de-escalating regional flare-ups, Islamabad emphasised that it had offered no military advice and advocated for diplomacy, citing potential harm to US interests as unwise. Following his four-day visit to the United States, General Asim Munir travelled directly to Turkey to attend an emergency summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, which was convened to address the Iran-Israel crisis. Pakistan also abstained from a recent International Atomic Energy Agency vote condemning Iran, reinforcing its diplomatic caution. However, Pakistani security officials have expressed concern that the country may not be able to shield itself from the spillover effects of the Iran conflict. 'In every respect, this conflict is likely to have serious repercussions for Pakistan, and we must begin preparing for its impact,' a security official based in Islamabad told Middle East Eye. Sectarian tensions Pakistan's security outlook with regard to Iran is shaped by a complex matrix of historical ties, geographical proximity and sectarian sensitivities, placing Islamabad in a strategically precarious position. While Pakistan is a majority Sunni country, it is home to a sizeable Shia minority, estimated on the low end to constitute between 15–20 percent of its nearly 250 million citizens. This community holds deep religious, cultural and emotional ties with Iran, widely viewed by Shia Muslims as a spiritual and ideological centre. These connections make Pakistan's position particularly delicate, as the appetite for national militarism rises in the Middle East. Analysts and Shia leaders warn that any overt support by Islamabad for military action against Iran, or even a stance of perceived neutrality, could exacerbate sectarian tensions and trigger political unrest. Pakistan has a long and often violent history of sectarian conflict, usually inflamed by geopolitical shifts in the Muslim world. 'Targeting him (Ayatollah Khamenei) would provoke serious emotional and political consequences, including within Pakistan' - Syed Ali Rizvi, Shia cleric In Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, thousands marched on Sunday in protest against US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 'Any alignment with a western or Israeli-led offensive against Tehran would not only alienate a significant portion of our population but could also destabilise the internal security fabric of the country,' Syed Ali Raza Rizvi, a Shia cleric in Karachi, told MEE. Rizvi warned that attempts to forcibly dislodge Iran's clerical leadership would carry profound repercussions. 'Ayatollah Khamenei is not like Mullah Omar, Saddam Hussein, or Bashar al-Assad. He is a marja [religious authority], a source of emulation for millions of Shias worldwide. Targeting him would provoke serious emotional and political consequences, including within Pakistan.' 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Much in a similar vein to its border with Afghanistan, cross-border ethnic ties further south complicate Pakistan's ability to remain insulated from regional instability. Analysts stress the risk that instability in Iran could create 'ungoverned spaces' along the Pakistan border, fueling militant movements and reigniting separatist ambitions. 'Iran's internal conflict dynamics are never fully contained within its borders - they inevitably spill over into Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan, where a separatist insurgency is already simmering,' said Imtiaz Baloch, an Islamabad-based researcher specialising in cross-border ethnic movements and regional militancy. Why did Pakistan and Iran bomb each other and then become friends again? Read More » Islamabad and Tehran have traded accusations for years: Pakistan claims Iran offers refuge to Pakistani separatists such as the Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Liberation Front, while Iran accuses Pakistan of harbouring Iranian Sunni militants, including Jaish al‑Adl. Tensions flared in January 2024 when both struck each other's territory with missiles, a rare but serious escalation. The idea of a pan-Baloch homeland, often referred to as 'Greater Balochistan', has gained renewed traction among militant and nationalist circles. Groups such as the Free Balochistan Movement, led by Hyrbyair Marri, a self-exiled Baloch separatist based in the UK, have openly advocated for an independent Baloch state carved out of both Pakistan and Iran. The resurgence of such rhetoric, analysts warn, could further destabilise the volatile border region. Islamabad has already sealed five border crossings and launched countermeasures in Balochistan since mid‑June to curb militant infiltration and deter refugee influx, recalling the Afghan refugee crises after the Soviet invasion in 1979 and the Taliban's takeovers in 1996 and 2021. Nukes and Israeli air supremacy Another critical concern for Pakistan stems from the precedent set by US and Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities - and the potential extension of Israeli aerial dominance near Pakistan's western frontier. The strikes are particularly alarming for Islamabad, a nuclear-armed state bordering its long-time rival, India, another nuclear power. The notion that one country can target another's nuclear infrastructure with apparent impunity raises profound questions about the erosion of global non-proliferation norms, experts said. 'Israel achieving total air dominance over Iran would dramatically shift the regional security calculus and threaten the strategic balance' - Pakistani foreign ministry official 'Pakistan has condemned the US attack on nuclear sites, possibly with the thought of the dangerous precedent that it sets in its hostility with India,' said Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, a professor at the school of politics and international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. Siddiqui added that Pakistan had to assert that its nuclear capabilities and deterrence aren't aimed westward. "It (Pakistan) has made it clear that its strategic and nuclear forces remain directed at India and not any other country,' Siddiqi told MEE. A less direct but equally profound concern for Pakistan, which does not recognise Israel and views it as an enemy, is the reported expansion of Israeli air superiority deep into Iranian airspace. 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After a shaky ceasefire, US and Israel can hardly claim to have deterred Iran Read More » The Pakistan military's media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations, boasted that the meeting achieved more in three days than India had in three decades - underscoring Islamabad's pride in repositioning itself at the centre of US strategic attention. 'Pakistan values its renewed relations with Iran but not at the cost of relations with the US, which it has tried hard to reset, given the recent Trump-Munir meeting,' said Siddiqi. But some analysts caution against interpreting the meeting as a fundamental shift in US policy. They note that Washington's relationship with Pakistan has historically been driven by short-term strategic needs rather than long-term alignment. 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Whether Pakistan can avoid being drawn into a new US-led security group or choose its own path focused on regional peace will be a key challenge for its diplomacy in the coming months. For now, Islamabad will continue to attempt its balancing act without a clear path forward.
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Khaleej Times
2 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts
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