Poll finds Albertans' attachment to Canada has grown as support for separatism has hardened

Yahoo

28-05-2025

Like many Albertans, Michelle Schamehorn was disappointed by the Liberal victory in last month's federal election.
But she's not on board with the escalating rhetoric surrounding Alberta separation.
"For me, no. I don't want to separate," said the resident of Taber, Alta., who works at a local truck dealership and feels most Canadian when she's snowshoeing in the mountains.
"I'm proud to be Canadian. Very, very proud to be Canadian."
She remains squarely in the majority in this province, according to new polling commissioned by CBC News, which asked a random sample of 1,200 people across Alberta their views on a variety of topics.
When it came to the question of whether Alberta would be better off if it separated from Canada, 67 per cent disagreed while 30 per cent agreed. The result was almost identical to a similar poll that asked the same question five years earlier.
One thing that has changed, however, is the strength of support among the Alberta separatists. In May 2020, only 12 per cent "strongly" agreed. By May 2025, that had grown to 17 per cent.
The poll also found a shift in public opinion at the other end of the spectrum.
Asked whether they feel more attachment to Alberta or to Canada, 34 per cent now picked their country over their province. That's up from just 20 per cent five years ago.
There was little change in those who feel more attachment to Alberta over that same time, while the proportion of those who said "both equally" shrunk substantially.
"So, I think we're seeing polarization on both ends," said pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the public-opinion research for CBC News.
"When it comes to separation, we're seeing that the number of people who strongly agree with separation is increasing," Brown said. "On the other side, we see the people who are attached to Canada, we see that group growing. The more we talk about separation, the more people are saying that they feel attached to Canada."
On a straight ballot question, meanwhile, 28 per cent of Albertans said in the latest polling that they'd vote to separate if a referendum were held today, compared to 67 per cent who would vote against separation. Five per cent said they weren't sure.
Trump effect
CBC News visited Taber recently to ask people in Alberta's Conservative heartland about what Canada means to them after the rhetoric around separation kicked up.
Several residents said they weren't ready to give up on Canada yet, despite their disappointment at seeing the Liberals win a fourth consecutive election.
Schamehorn said she's not a very political person, but the combination of the election defeat, talk of independence and the U.S. tariffs shocked her. It's made her pay more attention, she said, and she doesn't believe Alberta should pick up and walk away in frustration.
"We're Canada. We're Alberta. And we need to figure this out," she said.
"We have countries that are trying to destroy us right now. And we can't let that happen. We have to figure out how to be strong, together."
Brown, the pollster, says the recent tariffs and annexation threats from U.S. President Donald Trump have had a distinct effect on how Albertans view their province and their country.
"When you look deeper at the data, there definitely is a connection there," she said.
"One of the questions we asked was how stressed out people were about U.S.-Canada trade relations. And it seems like society here in Alberta is breaking into two groups: those people who are very preoccupied with tariffs and those people who aren't that preoccupied with tariffs. In fact, they are more preoccupied with Ottawa than they are with Washington."
Albertans who feel stressed by the trade war expressed significantly higher attachment to Canada in the recent polling.
Those who said they weren't stressed by it, in contrast, expressed significantly higher attachment to Alberta.
'I guess I'm more Canadian'
Rick Tams works with Schamehorn at a truck dealership in Taber.
He puts himself in the Canadian-first camp, but with a pretty big asterisk attached.
"We are a member of a country first and I live in the province of Alberta, so I guess I'm more Canadian," he said.
"But that being said, there's a gap within our own country. It's flawed."
Tams says he's been frustrated by the past 10 years of Liberal government in Ottawa, in particular when it comes to deficit spending, oil-and-gas regulations and the lack of follow-through on once-promised electoral reform.
He says he's seen, first hand, how that's hardened some Albertans' attitudes toward separation.
"In the circles I travel in, I think a referendum would have a chance," he said. "That doesn't mean we have to leave. But it does mean people have got to start paying attention."
As for himself?
"I would like to see just a whole lot more information before there was a vote," Tams said.
Political implications
Brown says the polling results show a "yes" vote in a hypothetical referendum on separation would almost certainly fail, but at the same time reveal a "sizeable minority of people who are serious about this idea."
"You just can't call this a fringe idea anymore," she said. "It's a strong sentiment in the population."
The political implications are far-reaching, she added, especially for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
Brown noted the poll results show Alberta NDP supporters are almost universally opposed to separation, while 54 per cent of UCP supporters said they would vote in favour of it, if a referendum were held today.
"Danielle Smith is dealing with a voter base that's split on the issue of separatism, while [NDP Leader] Naheed Nenshi is looking at a voter base who is single-minded on this issue," Brown said.
"So that makes it much more challenging for Danielle Smith to manage her way through this."
At the same time, Brown said further data from the latest poll suggests Smith is "doing a better job speaking to the middle group — the group who's both attached to Canada and attached to Alberta."
"That group maybe wants a new deal from Ottawa but doesn't want to separate," Brown said. "And she is speaking to that group, and I don't think the NDP is yet speaking to that group."
The details of that aspect of the poll results — which party is leading in popular support, and why — will be the topic of the next story in this series, which will be published later Wednesday.
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023.
As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow.
Methodology:
The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method from May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.
The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialled up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.