Trump's Tariffs Are Slowing Down US and Global Economic Growth: OECD
The global economic growth is set to face a significant slowdown, with the U.S. economy being among the hardest hit, due to increased uncertainty around international trade over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Tuesday.
President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have begun slowing down the global economy, with the U.S. ... More projected to be among the worst hit.
The OECD, an intergovernmental organization that includes 38 of the world's top economies, released its latest economic outlook report, which projects global economic growth will drop from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026.
This is a downward revision from the OECD's earlier projection of 3.1% growth in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, released in March—which itself was a significant downward revision from December's forecasts.
The second downward revision of growth forecasts is a result of 'rising trade costs' due to Trump's sweeping tariffs, which the OECD says are 'likely to fuel inflation.'
The U.S. economy, in particular, is set to be among the hardest hit, with growth dropping from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% and 1.5% respectively in 2025 and 2026.
Apart from the U.S., the OECD projects that most of the slowdown will be concentrated among Canada, Mexico, and China.
China's growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2026, while Canadian and Mexican economic growth will drop from 1.5% for both in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025.
The OECD warned that further increases in tariffs by the U.S. government and retaliatory measures by trading partners could 'intensify the growth slowdown and trigger significant disruptions in cross-border supply chains.' The report notes that more tariffs and retaliation could further roil financial markets, 'prolong policy uncertainty' and 'weaken global demand for many key commodities,' among other things. For example, the report says if the U.S. raised tariffs further by an additional 10% on all other countries, global output could drop by 0.3% within two years, while American economic output would fall by 0.6%.
President Donald Trump has not commented on the OECD's latest projections, but in a post on his Truth Social platform early on Tuesday, he wrote: 'Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!' The president did not cite any data to back his statement. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. reported negative GDP growth for the first time since 2022.
'The global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to a more uncertain path,' OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. 'Governments need to engage with each other to address any issues in the global trading system positively and constructively through dialogue.'
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Politico
10 minutes ago
- Politico
A quiet Tiananmen Square anniversary shows China's ability to suppress history
BEIJING — For most Chinese, the 36th anniversary of a bloody crackdown that ended pro-democracy protests in China passed like any other weekday. And that's just how the ruling Communist Party wants it. Security was tight Wednesday around Beijing's Tiananmen Square, where weeks of student-led protests shook the party in 1989. Under then-leader Deng Xiaoping, the military was sent in to end the protest on the night of June 3-4. Using live ammunition, soldiers forced their way through crowds that tried to block them from reaching the square. Hundreds and possibly thousands of people were killed, including dozens of soldiers. The party has tried, with some success, to erase what it calls the 'political turmoil' of 1989 from the collective memory. It bans any public commemoration or mention of the June 4 crackdown, scrubbing references from the internet. In recent years, that ban has been extended to Hong Kong, where a once-massive annual candlelight vigil is no longer permitted. Police said they brought 10 people on suspicion of breaching public peace to a police station for investigation. Three were still detained late Wednesday, while the rest were allowed to leave. Police also arrested a woman for failing to show her identity document and a man for obstructing police officers from performing their duties. It is only in Taiwan, a self-governing island that is claimed by China but runs its own affairs, that large June 4 gatherings can still take place. Tiananmen Square is a vast space in the center of Beijing with monumental, communist-era buildings along two sides and the mausoleum of Mao Zedong, who founded the communist era in 1949, on the south end. University students occupied this symbolically important site in the spring of 1989. Their calls for freedoms divided the party leadership. The decision to send in troops marked a decisive turning point in the evolution of modern China, keeping the party firmly in control as it loosened economic restrictions. Chinese officials have said the country's rapid economic development since then proves the decisions made at the time were correct. 'On the political turmoil that happened in the late 1980s, the Chinese government has already reached a clear conclusion,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday. He added that China would continue along its current path of what it calls 'socialism with Chinese characteristics.' Tiananmen Mothers, a group formed by relatives of the victims, made an annual online appeal to the government. Signed by 108 members, it called for an independent investigation into what happened on June 4, 1989, including a list of all who died. The group also demanded compensation for the families and a legal case against those responsible for the deaths. The British and German Embassies in Beijing posted videos commemorating the anniversary on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, but they were later taken down, presumably by censors. The Canadian and German Embassies displayed images of a single lit candle on large screens facing the main street. In Hong Kong, a carnival showcasing Chinese food and products was held in Victoria Park, where tens of thousands of people used to gather for a candlelight vigil to mark the anniversary. Hong Kong authorities first shut down the vigil during the Covid-19 pandemic and arrested the organizers in 2021. The moves were part of a broader crackdown on dissent following monthslong anti-government protests in 2019 that turned violent and paralyzed parts of the city. A former district council member, Chan Kim-kam, said customs officers questioned her at her shop on the eve of June 4 after she advertised small white candles for sale in an Instagram post titled 'June, we don't forget.' 'You know, Hong Kongers have become silent lambs after 2019,' said King Ng, who was at the park on Wednesday. Police were out in force to try to prevent any protest, and took several people away from the park on Wednesday. They included a young woman wearing a school uniform and holding flowers, a man who lowered his head in apparent prayer, and a man wearing a white T-shirt reading 'Vindication for June 4. It's getting closer and closer.' Police also questioned a woman who lit up a mosquito lamp, but eventually let her go. Rows of electronic candles lit up the windows of the U.S. consulate, and the British consulate projected 'VIIV' — Roman numerals in reference to June 4 — on one of its walls. The British and Canadian consulates earlier posted social media messages about remembering June 4. Hong Kong was a British colony until 1997. The U.S. consulate posted a message from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on its website. 'The CCP actively tries to censor the facts,' Rubio said, referring to China's Communist Party. 'But the world will never forget.' Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te used the anniversary to position the island he leads on the frontline of defending democracy against authoritarianism. In a Facebook post, he drew a distinction between Taiwan's multiparty democracy and China's one-party rule. 'Authoritarian governments often choose to remain silent and forget about history, while democratic societies choose to preserve the truth and refuse to forget those who have contributed to the ideals of human rights and the dreams they embrace,' Lai wrote. Taiwan transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy in a process that began in the late 1980s. It relies on support principally from the U.S., along with other democratic partners, to deter China from an invasion. Several hundred people gathered Wednesday evening for a candlelight vigil in downtown Taipei's Freedom Square. In the center stood a scaled-down model of the 'Pillar of Shame,' a sculpture commemorating the protests that once stood on the campus of the University of Hong Kong. Hong Kong authorities have placed bounties on some activists who have moved abroad. Other democracy advocates in the semi-autonomous Chinese city remain in jail or intimidated into silence. Wu Lang-huang, a Taiwanese professor who was present when troops arrived on the square in 1989, said he will continue to document what happened and collect related artifacts. 'It's not just about remembering what happened then but also for the lessons it tells us about modern Hong Kong and Taiwan,' Wu said. One of the vigil's organizers, who went by the name Mimi for fear of repercussions, said some may question why people born years after the 1989 protests still care. 'It's about memory, which is itself a form of resistance,' she said.
The Hill
11 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump promised to welcome more foreign students. Now, they feel targeted on all fronts
To attract the brightest minds to America, President Donald Trump proposed a novel idea while campaigning: If elected, he would grant green cards to all foreign students who graduate from U.S. colleges. 'It's so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, from the greatest schools,' Trump said during a podcast interview last June. 'That is going to end on Day One.' That promise never came to pass. Trump's stance on welcoming foreign students has shifted dramatically. International students have found themselves at the center of an escalating campaign to kick them out or keep them from coming as his administration merges a crackdown on immigration with an effort to reshape higher education. An avalanche of policies from the Trump administration — such as terminating students' ability to study in the U.S., halting all new student visa interviews and moving to block foreign enrollment at Harvard — have triggered lawsuits, countersuits and confusion. Foreign students say they feel targeted on multiple fronts. Late Wednesday, Trump himself took the latest action against international students, signing an executive order barring nearly all foreigners from entering the country to attend Harvard. In interviews, students from around the world described how it feels to be an international student today in America. Their accounts highlight pervasive feelings of fear, anxiety and insecurity that have made them more cautious in their daily lives, distracted them from schoolwork and prompted many to cancel trips home because they fear not being allowed to return. For many, the last few months have forced them to rethink their dreams of building a life in America. Markuss Saule, a freshman at Brigham Young University-Idaho, took a recent trip home to Latvia and spent the entire flight back to the U.S. in a state of panic. 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'I spend a lot of time doomscrolling job listings in India and other places.' Vladyslav Plyaka came to the U.S. from Ukraine as an exchange student in high school. As war broke out at home, he stayed to attend the University of Wisconsin. He was planning to visit Poland to see his mother but if he leaves the U.S., he would need to reapply for a visa. He doesn't know when that will be possible now that visa appointments are suspended, and he doesn't feel safe leaving the country anyway. He feels grateful for the education, but without renewing his visa, he'll be stuck in the U.S. at least two more years while he finishes his degree. He sometimes wonders if he would be willing to risk leaving his education in the United States — something he worked for years to achieve — if something happened to his family. 'It's hard because every day I have to think about my family, if everything is going to be all right,' he said. It took him three tries to win a scholarship to study in the U.S. Having that cut short because of visa problems would undermine the sacrifice he made to be here. He sometimes feels guilty that he isn't at home fighting for his country, but he knows there's value in gaining an education in America. 'I decided to stay here just because of how good the college education is,' he said. 'If it was not good, I probably would be on the front lines.' ___ AP Education Writer Collin Binkley contributed to this report. ___ The Associated Press' education coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
San Francisco Chronicle
12 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Election of Mexico's first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in 170 years raises hope and skepticism
MEXICO CITY (AP) — In his campaign for Mexico's Supreme Court, Hugo Aguilar sent a simple message: He would be the one to finally give Indigenous Mexicans a voice at one of the highest levels of government. 'It's our turn as Indigenous people ... to make decisions in this country,' he said in the lead up to Sunday's first judicial elections in Mexican history. Now, the 52-year-old Aguilar, a lawyer from the Mixtec people in Mexico's southern Oaxaca state, will be the first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in nearly 170 years in the Latin American nation, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. He could lead the high court. The last Indigenous justice to do so was Mexican hero and former President Benito Juárez, who ran the court from 1857 to 1858. For some, Aguilar has become a symbol of hope for 23 million Indigenous people long on the forgotten fringes of Mexican society. But others fiercely criticize his past, and worry that instead of representing them, he will instead stand with the ruling party, Morena, that ushered him onto the court. Top vote getter in controversial contest Supporters cite Aguilar's long history of working on Indigenous rights, while critics say that more recently he's helped push the governing party's agenda, including former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's massive infrastructure projects, at the expense of Indigenous communities. Aguilar's team said he would not comment until after official results were confirmed. 'He's not an Indigenous candidate,' said Francisco López Bárcenas, a distinguished Mixtec lawyer from the same region as Aguilar who once worked with him decades ago. He applauded the election of an Indigenous justice, but said 'He's an Indigenous man who became a candidate.' Aguilar was elected in Mexico's first judicial election, a process that's been criticized as weakening Mexico's system of checks and balances. López Obrador and his party overhauled the judicial system the populist leader was long at odds with. Instead of appointing judges through experience, voters elected judges to 2,600 federal, state and local positions. But the vote was marked by a very low voter turnout, about 13%. López Obrador and his successor and protege President Claudia Sheinbaum claimed the election would cut corruption in the courts. Judges, watchdogs and political opposition called it a blatant attempt to use the party's political popularity to stack courts in their favor, and gain control of all three branches of Mexico's government. While votes are still being counted in many races, the tally of results for nine Supreme Court justices came in first. The vast majority of the justices hold strong ties to the ruling party, handing Morena potential control over the high court. Aguilar's name was among those that appeared on pamphlets suggesting which candidates to vote for, which electoral authorities are investigating. A focus on Indigenous rights Aguilar scooped up more than 6 million votes, more than any other candidate, including three who currently serve on the Supreme Court. The victory opened the possibility of Aguilar not just serving on the court, but leading it. Critics attributed his win to Mexico's highly popular president repeatedly saying she wanted an Indigenous judge on the Supreme Court in the lead up to the election. On Wednesday she said she was thrilled he was on the court. 'He is a very good lawyer,' she said. 'I have the privilege of knowing his work not just on Indigenous issues, but in general. He has wide knowledge and is a modest and simple man.' The Supreme Court has handed down decisions that, for example, establish the right of Indigenous people to be assisted by interpreters who speak their native language and defense attorneys in any legal process. But there remain significant outstanding issues like territorial disputes in cases of mega-projects. Aguilar began his career in Oaxaca's capital, working for SERmixe, an organization advocating for Indigenous rights as a law student in his mid-20s. Sofía Robles, a member of the organization remembers young Aguilar being passionate, choosing to be a lawyer to advocate for Indigenous communities often living in poverty and out of reach of the law. 'He had this conviction, and there were many things he wouldn't conform with,' 63-year-old Robles said. 'From the very beginning, he knew where he came from.' Despite coming from a humble working-class family, he would work for the organization for free after his law classes. He later worked there as a lawyer on agrarian issues for 13 years. After the Zapatista uprising in 1994, a guerrilla movement fighting for Indigenous rights in southern Mexico, Aguilar worked to carry out constitutional reforms recognizing the basic rights of Mexico's Indigenous people. Robles said she believes he will bring that fight she saw in him to the Supreme Court. 'He gives us hope,' she said. 'Aguilar is going to be an example for future generations.' Ties to governing party But others like Romel González Díaz, a member of the Xpujil Indigenous Council in a Mayan community in southern Mexico, cast doubt on if Aguilar would truly act as a voice for their community. Aguilar's work came under fire when he joined the government's National Institute of Indigenous Peoples at the beginning of López Obrador's administration in 2018. It was then that he began to work on a mega-project known as the Maya Train fiercely criticized by environmentalists, Indigenous communities and even the United Nations. The train, which runs in a rough loop around the Yucatan peninsula, has deforested large swathes of jungle and irreversibly damaged an ancient cave system sacred to Indigenous populations there. Aguilar was tasked with investigating the potential impacts of the train, hearing the concerns of local Indigenous communities and informing them of the consequences. That was when González Díaz met Aguilar, who arrived with a handful of government officials, who sat down for just a few hours with his small community in Xpujil, and provided sparse details about the negative parts of the project. González Díaz's organization was among many to take legal action against the government in an attempt to block train construction for not properly studying the project's impacts. The environmental destruction left in the project's wake is something that continues to fuel his distrust for Aguilar. 'The concern with Hugo is: Who is he going to represent?' González Díaz said. 'Is he going to represent the (Morena) party or is he going to represent the Indigenous people?'
