3 reasons why Starmer could U-turn on controversial benefits cuts to PIP

Yahoo

2 days ago

An upcoming vote in the House of Commons on government proposals to cut £5bn from the benefits bill has sparked a rift in the Labour Party.
The Labour leader is reportedly facing a growing backbench rebellion over the government's welfare reforms announced in March, with some reports suggesting as many as 100 backbench Labour MPs have signed a letter saying they can not support the proposals as they stand.
Some of the party's MPs have been publicly critical. Imran Hussain said 41,000 disabled people in his Bradford East constituency would be affected and that many were 'rightly horrified' by the policy. Neil Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, is one of those to have signed the letter, branding the reforms wrong".
I have signed this letter calling for the government to rethink its stance on disability benefits because I think the current plans are wrong.We need to be listening to people's concerns and I hope things will begin to change. https://t.co/M89JKeP5Hy
— Neil Duncan-Jordan MP (@NeilForPoole) May 8, 2025
Ahead of the vote (which is expected to take place some time in June) the anger has reportedly led the prime minister to consider softening the proposed reforms – specifically changes to the eligibility rules surrounding the benefits payments to disabled people.
Yahoo News takes a look at what's going on.
The government has proposed a raft of benefits cuts, predominantly affecting those who are disabled or have a long-term health condition.
One of those cuts is to personal independence payments (PIP), a benefit for people in and out of work that helps with the additional costs of living with a disability.
The government wants to limit who is eligible by changing the assessment criteria from 2026. It means at least 800,000 disabled people could lose out on payments, according to figures published by the department of work and pensions.
The health component of universal credit (UC) is also to be frozen until 2030, with the amount cut in half for new claimants from April 2026.
Under-22s who are disabled or have a long-term illness will also no longer be able to claim a health top-up of universal credit from April 2026, with the money saved set to be reinvested by the government into training young people.
In total, the cuts will leave 2.25 million households losing out on £500 per year, according to the government's own impact assessment.
Some of the government's welfare reforms are open to consultation, with the public being asked to submit their thoughts until 30 June 2025.
However, critics have said that only the less serious reforms — like scrapping the work capability assessment for those applying for the health component of universal credit — are open to discussion.
In recent weeks, reports have indicated ministers are considering softening the cut.
According to the Financial Times, one of the rumoured changes includes making the proposed changes to eligibility for PIP less strict, which could mean 195,000 fewer disabled people are affected by the reforms.
Claimants could also get a longer 'transitional period' — from when they are informed their benefits are cut to their benefits stopping — so they have more time to plan for the loss in income, the Times reported.
The rumoured changes reportedly hopes to get frustrated MPs onside, who have taken moral objections with the scale and severity of the cuts, the disproportionate impact for voters in the Labour heartlands, as well as the increasingly positive polling for Reform.
Several Labour MPs have taken issue with the cuts, voicing their concerns that Labour has historically supported and championed a robust welfare system.
According to the Times, 170 backbenchers warned that they may not support the reforms that make it harder to claim PIP as well as cutting incapacity benefits to increase incentives to work. Added to this, it warned that the scale of the cuts had not been seen since George Osborne's austerity reforms, which the party voted staunchly against.
Forty-two MPs — including Nadia Whittome, Diane Abbott and Stella Creasy — wrote to the Cabinet earlier this month saying that the reforms were "impossible to support" and called for "a change in direction".
The letter reads: 'The planned cuts of more than £7bn represent the biggest attack on the welfare state since George Osborne ushered in the years of austerity and over three million of our poorest and most disadvantaged will be affected.
"Without a change in direction, the green paper will be impossible to support.'
Another private letter, signed by 100 MPs, said they could not support the government in the disability vote, the Guardian reported.
MPs don't just have the party whip to answer to — they are also held to account by their constituents.
While the scale of the PIP cuts are clearly far-reaching, the map indicates that the 10 areas most affected by the government's PIP cuts are in Labour heartlands.
In fact, out of top 20 areas where claimants are set to miss out on PIP, 19 voted for Labour in the general election — with Clacton voting for Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.
In fact, many of the areas are emerging Labour/Reform UK battlegrounds. And, in the wake of Labour's chastening local election results in May, some have pointed the finger at the government's welfare cuts as one of the key drivers of discontent among the party's traditional voting base.
3. Reform are out-positioning Labour on welfare
At a national level, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has pledged to reverse the winter fuel cut and scrap the two-child benefit cap if the party came to power in a naked attempt to target Labour's perceived weakness in the area of welfare.
And while the government has signalled a partial U-turn on the winter fuel payment, it continues to dodge calls from campaigners and MPs to ditch the cap.
Overall, the most recent YouGov poll seems to indicate the public are also losing faith in Labour on welfare issues, with 69% saying the government is handling welfare issues badly.
A DWP spokesperson said: "We are determined to create a welfare system that supports people into work and out of poverty.
'At the heart of the government's reforms is £1bn scheme to help the long-term sick or disabled find good, secure jobs.
'Our Plan for Change will change people's lives for the better. That is why we have raised the national living wage, increased benefits, and given additional help to the poorest households.'