US embassy evacuations signal threat of strike on Iran, experts say
The US staff evacuations from its embassies in the Middle East on Thursday signals the threat of either an Israeli or American attack on Iran, experts told The National, as tension heightens across the region.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that US personnel were being moved from the potentially 'dangerous' Middle East as nuclear talks with Iran faltered and fears grew of a regional conflict.
'The evacuation leaks signal that the threat of Israeli strikes on Iran looms closer on the horizon,' Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at London's Chatham House, told The National.
Tehran had earlier threatened to target US military bases in the region if conflict breaks out and if it were attacked over its nuclear programme, amid mounting speculation that Israel could strike the country's facilities.
The orders to US embassy staff in Iraq was 'based on our latest analysis', according to the US State Department. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth authorised family members of US military stationed across the region to leave, according to a Pentagon statement.
[The move] could be related to possible US or Israeli strikes on acts of resistance targets, and it's of a significantly large enough threat and a large enough scale that they expect retaliation
Farzan Sabet,
managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute
The State Department also said US government employees and family members in Israel are restricted from travelling outside major cities such as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem until further notice.
The move could be 'related to possible US or Israeli strikes on acts of resistance targets, and it's of a significantly large enough threat and a large enough scale that they expect retaliation, hence the evacuation', Farzan Sabet, managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told The National.
Mr Sabet said the move could be 'co-ordinated signalling because we've also seen many leaks about Israeli preparations to strike Iran to generate leverage for the US in nuclear talks with Iran'.
It comes ahead of a sixth round of talks between Washington and Tehran in an attempt to reach a nuclear deal. Mr Trump has threatened to bomb the country if Iran refuses to reach an agreement.
The US has given conflicting comments, though in recent weeks Mr Trump has more firmly stated that Tehran must stop its enrichment altogether.
The Omani-mediated talks will be held in Muscat on Sunday in a final attempt to get a framework and deal on Tehran's nuclear activities and the lifting of Iranian sanctions.
The threat from Iran could be directed more at Israel, given reports of its readiness to attack nuclear sites if talks fail, rather than the US, Yesar Al Maliki, a Gulf Analyst at MEES, told The National.
'US foreign policy is divided between isolationist and interventionist agendas within administration ranks, Tehran's messaging could be directed at the former group,' he said.
Iran is 'under pressure as talks with the US are yet to produce a mutually agreeable compromise on enrichment', he said.
Iraq under possible threat
Iraq 's leadership across the spectrum has been very concerned from any Israeli attacks on the country, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq initiative at London's Chatham House, told The National.
Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al Sudani's 'government has managed thus far to keep Iraq insulated or relatively insulated from the wider violence and conflict', he said.
However, the main concern is 'whether either Israel or the US, especially some of the neoconservative elements in the US administration want to target Iran via Iraq, could push for this policy'.
'Iraq has always been connected in a way to the wider regional conflicts,' he said, adding that Baghdad still has the Popular Mobilisation Forces which 'is somehow more or less connected to Iran's networks in the region and the axis of resistance'.
In response to the move by Mr Trump, an Iraqi military spokesman, Sabah Al Numan, said on Thursday that the evacuation of some US embassy personnel is a 'regulatory precautionary measure related to them'.
Omar Al Nidawi, programmes director at Enabling Peace in Iraq Centre thinks that the "sudden unprompted move and Trump's remarks yesterday that the region 'could be a dangerous place' suggests it was more likely a stunt meant to put pressure on Iran ahead of talks than a real security precaution based on actual concerns", he told The National.
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If the US was informed ahead of time and also supplied weapons to Israel, how can Secretary of State Marco Rubio say the US was not involved? Jamal Abdi, President, National Iranian American Council: "This is about creating a narrative of plausible deniability to potentially give Iran a face-saving way to continue talking to the United States [towards a new nuclear deal]. I don't think it's going to work, and I think Trump has already stepped all over that by now, basically taking credit, after seeming to distance the US." Anthony Wanis-St John, conflict resolution specialist, American University: "It's a verbal obfuscation. It means that operationally, we didn't support it." Miles Pomper, Senior Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation: "Because the Russians and the Chinese are affiliated with the Iranians, [the US will] try not to elevate the level to something beyond a regional conflict, to some global conflict." What is the difference between a 'preemptive strike' and a 'preventive strike'. Are they not both acts of war? Wanis-St. John: "These are certainly acts of war. There's no question about it, the Israelis like to call attention and use "preemptive" and "preventive" doctrines in their military strikes, since every country under international laws and norms is allowed to defend itself against aggression, but no country is supposed to lawfully commit aggressions against another country." Sam Ratner, policy director, Win Without War: "'Preemptive strike' does seem to be, from a definitional standpoint, a misnomer from Israel... this is a war of choice from [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu." Pomper: "It's not a preemptive strike, because that would be [like] the Six Day War, where the planes are on the tarmac and about to attack you, and then you hit them. 'Preventive' is a stop to a long-term threat to Israel. And you know the Iranians aren't shy about threatening." Negar Mortazavi, host of the Iran Podcast: "If it's not [couched as] preemptive, then it will be seen differently both from the public opinion and the global opinion... and we know that Israel cares a lot about its image, about its standing in the international community, and that has deteriorated very fast [since its war on Gaza]." The international community has long tolerated, and sometimes cheered on, Israel's string of extra-judicial assassinations. Why? Abdi: "Israel has a lot of political power and very important friends, most importantly, the United States." Mortazavi: "Powerful western countries have provided not just financial and armed support, but also diplomatic support and cover to Israel in the UN Security Council... the contradiction - or in a way, that oxymoron - that Israel is dealing with, is that they're a country that came out of the United Nations [in 1948]." Ratner: "In the post-9/11 era in particular, we've seen not just from the Israeli government, but from Iranian governments, including our own, in fact, and in particular our own, a real sort of generational change of attitude toward the use of assassination. We see it in our drone programme. The erosion of the norm against assassination is bad for diplomacy, bad for international relations, and bad for peace." Looking at the nature of Israel's attacks, can Iran retaliate in the same way? Wanis-St John: "I'm not sure that they can, operationally. I've never seen Iran do that against Israel.... you really need a lot of information about where [targets] are and where they're moving and how they're protected at night. That requires a lot of infrastructure. I'm not sure that the Iranians have that." Abdi: "If we're saying there are no laws, there is no accountability, you can conduct extra-judicial killings with impunity, then it would seem that would no longer restrain any actor from engaging in the same types of activities. But we know that that's not how the world works, and that certain countries have been given a carte blanche to do whatever they want." Mortazavi: "The condemnation would be so different... imagine if the same was done by Iran. Israeli officials also have homes and families." Why can't Iran have a nuclear bomb if Israel does? Mortazavi: "Iran is a signatory to the NPT, the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They have committed to not building nuclear weapons [and] they have a civilian programme. According to US intelligence, they don't have a weapons programme. At the same time, Israel has an undeclared weapons programme [and] many nuclear warheads. They're not a signatory to any international monitoring and safeguards." Ratner: "Our position on this is that we are opposed to nuclear proliferation and [in favour of] nuclear disarmament. Nuclear weapons are unimaginably destructive forces, and the more hands those weapons are in, the more likely that nuclear warfare becomes. If we add another country to the nuclear club, how many more countries will join?" Abdi: "Iran has threatened before that if something like [Friday's attacks] happened, they would abandon the NPT, and then there would be no international law saying they're not allowed to build nuclear weapons. They could do what Israel did, and develop a clandestine programme, and not be held accountable to any treaties or agreements or anything, and it's just the law of the jungle, and everybody gets a nuke." Israel has always said it wants to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. Isn't that dangerous? Pomper: "I think, as opposed to attacking a nuclear power plant that's got actual radioactive material, like Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, it's different... You don't have that kind of concentration. And so you may have environmental and other damages, but you're not likely to get a widespread radiation danger from it." Wanis-St John: "They shouldn't really be targeted if they're not military programmes. No one has said that the Iranians are building a nuclear weapon at this time. They don't claim to be making one, and nobody on the outside claims that they are making one... The Israeli attack is really meant to send them a signal that any progress towards weapons-grade enrichment is not going to be tolerated by Israel." Ratner: "The bigger concern... is that Iran has made clear statements and threats that if the Israeli government strikes its nuclear facilities, that it will respond by striking US targets in the region. And what we see from Benjamin Netanyahu is a desire for exactly that to happen. His interest is in starting a chain of events that drags the US into war on his side, because the Israeli military would have a very difficult time pursuing regime change in Iran on its own."
