Pronman: Analyzing major decisions for 7 teams picking at top of 2025 NHL Draft

New York Times

3 days ago

Today, we dive into the major decisions facing teams at the top of the 2025 NHL Draft. This isn't a mock draft, but rather an analysis of the specific issues facing teams in their particular situation and how it will relate to the top of this draft class.
The lottery delivered the Islanders a franchise-altering opportunity. With the No. 1 pick, the conversation likely starts with Matthew Schaefer versus Michael Misa. Misa had a very strong year and is viewed by many NHL scouts as the second-best prospect in the draft. He's a well-rounded, highly productive forward with top-line potential down the middle. But while his season impressed, he doesn't rise to the truly special level of player who can break a game open.
Advertisement
Schaefer does. Even in a limited number of games, he consistently flashed the highest-end tools in the class. He's an elite skater, can drive offense from the back end, is highly competitive and has all the traits to become a true No. 1 defenseman. That kind of profile is both rare and incredibly valuable. He's the only player in this draft whom I saw consistently dominate games at both the club and international level.
The more complicated debate is with Long Island native and a player formerly projected as the No. 1 pick in this draft, James Hagens. He was very good but didn't have the dominant season some expected at Boston College, but he still brings an elite skating/skill combination and the ability to drive play at the highest level. He was the No. 1 center for USA's gold-medal World Junior team and has a long track record of high-end offensive production. If you told me he went second or third, I wouldn't have an issue with it.
But taking him over Schaefer would be a reach. Hagens has some minor flags — how much he plays on the perimeter, some inconsistency as a finisher, and whether he sticks at center in the NHL. He's also nearly a full year older than Schaefer. The hometown angle is real, and after John Tavares spurned the Islanders, I can understand the temptation to take the local player if it was close. But it's not close. Unless something changes in the next month, Schaefer should be the pick.
If Schaefer somehow falls to No. 2, San Jose shouldn't overthink it. He's the best player in the draft and fills a major organizational need of a premier young defenseman along with Sam Dickinson.
Assuming Schaefer is off the board, the decision becomes more nuanced. Management has made it clear they want to get bigger and heavier. That could lead them to look at a big winger such as Porter Martone or a two-way center with size, such as Caleb Desnoyers or Anton Frondell. Martone, in particular, played well alongside Macklin Celebrini for Canada this spring at the senior level and could bring size and scoring touch to their forward group.
Advertisement
But the best forward in the class is Misa. He's an excellent skater with high-end skill, great offensive instincts and a long track record of being a top player at the junior level. He's competitive enough that you can realistically project him as a center in the NHL, which is important context for San Jose's roster construction.
The Sharks' rebuild has been focused on the two pivots they've taken lately: Celebrini, who was the first pick last summer, and Will Smith, who went No. 4 the prior year. Celebrini looks like a foundational first-line center. Smith's long-term fit down the middle is murkier — he played a lot of wing this season and, while gifted offensively, doesn't have all the traits you want in a center on a contending team when he doesn't have the puck.
Misa has more traditional center elements than Smith, as he's a better skater and a little more competitive. He could reasonably project as a second-line center behind Celebrini, and if he hits, that gives San Jose a chance to build around two high-end pivots and a potential high-end power play.
You could make reasonable arguments for Desnoyers or Frondell, depending on how you view Misa or Smith's chances to play center on a contender, as some scouts are murkier on how Misa's game will fare in that regard. If you are a big believer in Smith, then maybe Martone could fit.
I think those arguments are too speculative, though, to not just dumb it down and take the best forward in the draft, especially when San Jose is so far away from contending and just needs talent in any form.
The big question for Chicago at No. 3 isn't just who the best player available is — it's how the Blackhawks want to build around Connor Bedard. The entire conversation hinges on whether the organization views Bedard as a long-term center, particularly someone who can be a 1C on a contending team. If they do, the path likely shifts toward wingers or complementary skill. If they don't, the focus becomes finding the right center to play with or support him.
Advertisement
That leads to three primary options: Jake O'Brien, Frondell and Desnoyers. O'Brien is the most skilled of the group — he's a dynamic playmaker who could be the type to feed Bedard the puck in dangerous areas. But Frondell and Desnoyers aren't far behind him in pure talent and bring more complete, two-way games. Both have legitimate offensive upside, can skate and have the kind of center traits you want if Bedard ends up needing to move to the wing.
The Blackhawks have also prioritized speed in how they draft and build their forward group. That's why it's hard to see someone like Martone fitting here with his so-so footspeed, unless they're just blown away by him due to his size, skill and compete and think Bedard can be a 1C on a contender.
If Misa gets to No. 3, he'd likely be the pick. He's the top forward in the class, has the high-end skating and skill, versatility to play center or wing, and gives them flexibility in how they use Bedard long term.
Hagens seems unlikely. Despite being a high-end skater and extremely skilled, Chicago already has drafted a lot of smaller forwards high and using another top pick on a sub-6-footer alongside Bedard probably doesn't fit.
My lean would be toward Desnoyers here. Frondell would also be a strong option. Either could fill the Jonathan Toews role to Bedard's Kane.
Utah's unexpected jump from 14 to 4 in the draft order changed the scope of the players they were looking at. In an ideal world, they would be adding a defenseman to their desirable group of young forwards they are building. Even the biggest supporters of defensemen like Radim Mrtka, Kashawn Aitcheson or Jackson Smith would say fourth overall is aggressive, though. So we turn to the forwards. Utah's philosophy is to be a highly competitive and hard team to play against. I would rule Hagens out of this group, though, due to his size, and I will presume Misa is off the board by this stage.
The decision thus will probably come down to a combination of Desnoyers, Frondell, Martone, O'Brien, Brady Martin and Roger McQueen. McQueen would be an ideal fit due to his size, skating, skill and the physicality he showed when healthy this season, but his back injury would pose a major risk. This would be a call for the Mammoth's doctors. Any of those other forwards would make a lot of sense for how Utah wants to build and on talent at the 4 slot. I like their center depth. Logan Cooley is a potential 1C on a good team, Barrett Hayton a 2/3C and Cole Beaudoin a 3/4C. There's no such thing as too many good centers, but I don't think they need to force the issue if they decide, for example, that Martone is the best player or they envision Martin or Frondell as a winger. Stylistically, in terms of being a heavy team to play against, Desnoyers, Frondell, Martone or Martin would make the most sense.
Advertisement
Nashville's pick feels less convoluted than the others in terms of the variables they have to consider. The Predators were at the bottom of the league in terms of offense last season, and while they have some good young forwards coming, they lack truly elite talent in their system. If you zoomed in and looked at their depth chart, you would conclude they could use a true premier center talent more than a winger, but everyone in this range basically does. They shouldn't turn away from Hagens or Martone due to positional factors, they need talent, period.
Once we start getting to this point of the draft, a lot of decisions will have been made for the Flyers. There is a consensus top group in the NHL of about 7-8 players, depending on whether some have the green light to pick McQueen. In an ideal world, the Flyers would be adding a scoring center to their pipeline, so I'd be a bit surprised to see Martone as the pick here.
The only consensus top 'center' prospect who most in the league view as a for sure top-two-line NHL center is Desnoyers; all the other ones have plausible outcomes where they end up on the wing. The Flyers will need to weigh whether they think the prospects in the mix project down the middle for them or not. Hagens getting to 6 would provide a unique dilemma for them. He's a dynamic playmaker, but the last two forwards they've taken with high picks in Jett Luchanko and Matvei Michkov have been 5-11 or smaller, and they turned 6-3 forward Cutter Gauthier into 5-11 defenseman Jamie Drysdale. They will have to debate whether adding Hagens makes them too small a team, even if the value could be tantalizing.
Like with Philadelphia, Boston will find a lot of decisions were made for them, and they will have what is left of the top group. They have a pressing need to add a legit top young center to the organization, and it's highly expected that there will be a run on the top center prospects leading up to this pick. Boston will primarily be faced with the McQueen question if he's available at 7: Do you swing on a top-five talent who missed most of the season due to back issues? Otherwise, they would take whichever of Hagens, O'Brien, Desnoyers, Frondell or Martin is left. This is around the point of the draft, though, where the difference between a healthy McQueen and the next best prospect starts becoming noticeably large.
(Photos of Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images)