Europe's existential choice

Business Times

21-05-2025

[POZNAN] For years, I have taken every opportunity to urge the European Union and its member states to invest more in defence. When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I repeatedly asked (as a member of the European Parliament) what further proof we would need to recognise the threats facing all of Europe.
What would we – as Europeans – do if our security was threatened while our closest ally, the United States, was otherwise engaged?
Today, we confront that very situation. US officials are openly stating that they do not intend to devote most of their time or resources to dealing with what they deem European issues. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the US has 'other priorities to focus on'.
I agree. The global superpower has global responsibilities, and the number of flash points that might demand the US government's attention seems only to be growing. In addition to challenges in the Western hemisphere, instability in the Middle East, and severe tensions between two nuclear powers – India and Pakistan – there is also the paramount goal of redefining relations with China.
Moreover, according to the official US Defence Department planning doctrine, the US can no longer fight more than one major war at a time.
The new US administration has been communicating its position plainly. 'We're here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,' Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced in Brussels this February.
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And US Vice-President J D Vance was even more direct, stating that 'Europe's entire security infrastructure … has been subsidised by the United States of America', even though it is neither in Europe's nor America's interest 'for Europe to be a permanent security vassal of the United States'. President Donald Trump himself has repeatedly accused Europe of 'freeloading' and 'taking advantage' of the US.
Europeans may not like what we hear, but we cannot pretend not to hear it. We must be prepared for the US to wash its hands not only of Ukraine, but even of Europe. Le Monde's Sylvie Kauffmann recently argued: 'Preparing for the worst is a safer bet than hoping for the best.' We can and should do both – hope and prepare. Trust but verify.
Two schools of thought
Ever since Trump announced his presidential candidacy back in 2015, there have been two schools of thought on interpreting his words. Some argue that we should take him seriously but not literally, whereas others urge us to do the opposite: treat him literally but not always seriously. I believe that the most reasonable and respectable approach is to treat whatever the US president says both literally and seriously.
Given the current state of the world, this implies that Europe faces an existential choice. We can enter the global game united, as a heavyweight competitor, or we can condemn ourselves to marginalisation.
Much has been done already to become a heavyweight contender. Since 2016 – just before Trump's first term – North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) members, excluding the US, have increased their annual defence spending by 98 per cent, from US$255 billion to US$506 billion.
Moreover, after three years of Putin waging war on Ukraine, the EU and its member states have proven willing to spend even more and to embrace a more cooperative, rational, and effective approach to defence planning and procurement. The new joint defence agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom is another step demonstrating this new strategic solidarity.
Deterring Russia is not beyond our means. We don't need to match US military capabilities; rather, we just need enough to force Putin to reconsider his chances of winning in a confrontation with a united European community of democratic nation-states.
The people of Europe are clearly demanding that we develop a revitalised European defence posture. According to the European Commission, 71 per cent of EU citizens believe that the bloc must strengthen its ability to produce military equipment, while 77 per cent support a common defence and security policy. This gives European leaders a mandate to think and act boldly.
But how long will it take to restore peace to Ukraine and stability to Europe? I believe we must act on the basis of three assumptions. First, we should view this as a war of a former imperial metropole against what it regards as a mutinous colony. History suggests that colonial wars usually take about a decade to end. Anything less than that should be considered a bonus.
Mistake
Second, we should accept that for the invading country to start negotiating in good faith, it must conclude that the invasion was a mistake. It must acknowledge that the costs of war, and of keeping the former colony subjugated, are greater than whatever benefits the colony can possibly yield.
Third, given the above, we should remember that colonial wars are usually finished by a different group of leaders than those who started the fighting.
Yes, boosting European defence capabilities while supporting Ukraine will cost money. Since the start of Russia's war of aggression, the EU and its member states have provided more than US$165 billion in support for Ukraine and its people. That is a significant amount, but it is still less than 1 per cent of the combined GDP of the EU's member countries (some US$19 trillion). We can certainly do more.
And as we reinvigorate Europe's defences, we must not lose sight of why we are doing it: we are acting for our own safety, not to undermine transatlantic relations but to improve them. To avoid a strategic dilemma, we Europeans must be able to help the US defend its allies by taking on our fair share of the security burden. PROJECT SYNDICATE
Radosław Sikorski is Foreign Minister of Poland