MLB Mock Draft 2025 2.0: Aiva Arquette jumps to No. 1; another Holliday in Colorado?

New York Times

a day ago

Here's my second attempt to project who might go in the 2025 MLB Draft's first round, which runs 27 picks as the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all got the wrist-slap for spending more than the Commissioner's Recommended Daily Allowance on their major-league payrolls and saw their first picks pushed back 10 spots each.
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As always, this is entirely about who I hear and think could go in these spots, not my own opinion on who I would select — that is what my Big Board is for (you'll also find more in-depth analysis about each player in the Big Board) — and is based on what I've heard from various industry sources along with my understanding of what each team tends to favor in the draft.
With that out of the way, onto Mock Draft 2.0.
(Note: Player tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale.)
I'll probably say this in every mock until the last one — I don't think we'll know who the Nats are taking until at least the day of the draft. They're still considering at least six players, maybe even up to eight, as there's no consensus No. 1 prospect in the class. I believe the mix includes Arquette, all three top college lefties (Liam Doyle, Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold), and Ethan Holliday. I think it's much less likely that they take Seth Hernandez, given the much higher risk of high school pitchers and the Nats' very limited history of taking prep arms in the first round: since Mike Rizzo first took over as GM, they've taken a high school pitcher with their first pick only twice — Lucas Giolito (2012) and Mason Denaburg (2018).
Everyone expects the Angels to take Doyle or Kade Anderson and then put whoever they select in the majors before the ink is dry on the contract.
Right now Anderson is going somewhere in the top four picks. I think Seattle would take Anderson even if Liam Doyle is on the board.
My sense is that the Rockies are heaviest on these four guys — Holliday and the three I have going ahead of him. I don't have any sense of what order they might have them in on their hypothetical board right now (because no teams have actual draft boards up a month before the draft).
Let me just pre-empt anyone saying 'but they have Masyn Winn!!?!?!' by pointing out that 1) you do not draft for need in baseball, ever, unless you want to lose your job and 2) Willits is 17 years old, so by the time he's likely to be ready for the majors, Winn will be approaching free agency. Anyway, I think the Cards would take any of the four players I have going ahead of them over Willits. They might also still be the highest spot for Kyson Witherspoon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a college bat like Wehiwa Aloy instead of going with a high school player. I do not have a good feel for whether they'd take a high school arm here.
In this scenario I've concocted in my head, which you are now dutifully reading, I think the Pirates would be leaning towards Arnold, Billy Carlson or Seth Hernandez. Kyson Witherspoon and Tyler Bremner probably start to see action here.
The Marlins are clearly willing to take higher-risk high school players up top, having done so last year with two position players — P.J. Morlando and Carter Johnson. (They took two high school pitchers with their first two picks in 2023, but that was under the previous regime.) I could also see them in on Hernandez's Corona teammate Billy Carlson and I think they might be the floor for Eli Willits.
Everyone says the Blue Jays want a shortstop of some sort, and this is a good year to want a shortstop, as it turns out, with various flavors of shortstop available — college, high school, good defenders, good hitters, and so on. Given the seven players I have going above them, I think their choice would be between Carlson, the best of the high school group remaining, and Wehiwa Aloy, the best of the college group remaining. If they don't like the shortstop options, I think they'd go with a college pitcher.
Irish is one of two names who've really seemed to move up over the last month or so, as teams have become more comfortable with the idea of just taking Irish — who has only caught a couple of games since he missed two weeks in March with a fractured scapula — as an outfielder and letting him go rake. I would bet more on the Reds going with a college player than a high school one, and could see them on Kyson Witherspoon, Wehiwa Aloy or maybe Tyler Bremner.
Bremner is the other name who's moved up a lot, as he's mostly recovered from a bad start to the year and posted some fantastic numbers over the season's final month. He came into the year with a ton of hype as the top college righty in the draft, so there's an argument that this would be excellent value for the spot. I believe they'd take any of those college lefties over him if they got here. I've also heard them with Steele Hall and Kruz Schoolcraft. I don't think Seth Hernandez would get past this spot.
The Athletics went heavy on college guys last year, and 11 months out, it looks like one of their best drafts in some time, with Nick Kurtz in the majors and Tommy White and Gage Jump both performing at or above expectations. They've also been a 'take the obvious guy' team for probably 10 years or so; outside of the year they took Max Muncy the Younger, they've taken who people thought they would take, and it's been around the industry consensus at that spot. So this year, that's guys like Aloy, Jace LaViolette, and maybe Tyler Bremner or Kyson Witherspoon if they get here.
Cunningham is near the top of Texas' short list, although I'm not sure if the Rangers take him regardless of who's here. I thought they'd be a fit for Jace LaViolette, not because he's local but because he does some of the things their draft model seems to value; and I've heard them before with JoJo Parker.
Parker's market seems to be somewhere in this 10-15 range. I've heard the Giants as Tyler Bremner's possible floor, and could see them with Billy Carlson or Kyson Witherspoon.
The Rays have three extra picks this year — their own competitive balance pick, another they acquired in the Jeffrey Springs trade with the Athletics, and a pick because their second-rounder backed out of a deal in 2024 — so they can be very creative and try to move money around. Don't be surprised if they go under-slot here to try to go over-slot with those later selections. That said, Witherspoon would be a slot pick here, as would Marek Houston (whom draft model teams seem to like more than scout-heavy teams) or Wehiwa Aloy. Straight speculation on my part, but I wonder if they'd take Jace LaViolette and hope their development staff can 'fix' his contact issues.
This is more of a bet on the Red Sox taking a player who was generally considered among the top bats in the class coming into the spring but who had a rough spring than any specific tie between the two. The Red Sox went very college-heavy last year, taking just one high school player in the top 10 rounds and only one more after that. I could also see them on Gavin Kilen or Ike Irish.
Houston has turned out to be a divisive player even among teams that lean towards college guys. If your draft model really favors contact, you've got Houston ranked highly, but if it favors exit velocity and similar data, it's got him much lower down. The Twins have branched out from their contact-over-all-else days, but they are still one of a few teams (like Pittsburgh and Cleveland) to particularly focus on it — not a bad thing in our high-strikeout era. I could also see them on Gavin Kilen or JoJo Parker if Parker gets this far.
The Cubs like college hitters who hit the ball hard and control the zone — well, most teams like those things, to be fair, but their last two first-round picks were exemplars of the type in Matt Shaw and the since-traded Cam Smith. Kilen is very much that flavor of hitter, and in the scenario I've laid out here, he's the last of the top tier of those guys; after that, it'd be players with more questions like Devin Taylor or Mason Neville, at which point I have to think the Cubs would go another direction.
Yes, everyone says the Diamondbacks will take Slater de Brun because he's a fun-sized high school outfielder, and maybe they will, but I don't think that's a fait accompli at pick 18, not least because they might be able to get him with their compensation pick at 29. Fien was the best hitter on the showcase circuit last summer/fall and should have been a top-10 pick, but he struggled this spring and looked like a different hitter. That was Caleb Bonemer's story in 2024, more or less, and the White Sox may have gotten a steal with him in the second round.
I won't believe Mike Elias and company are taking a pitcher in the first round until they actually do it — not that I've heard them doing so anyway. It's only hitters, at least according to rumor, with an emphasis on guys with great batted-ball data. Neyens has some of the best power in the high school class and the data backs it up. I could see them as a floor for Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, or maybe Houston since they took Griff O'Ferrall, another high-contact shortstop without much power, with a comp pick last year.
I've heard Pierce as high as 12 to Texas, although I think the back half of the round is more likely. I can't imagine the Brewers passing on Gavin Kilen or Gavin Fien, given the way their draft model seems to work, although they could also start off the next tier of college pitching.
The Astros have leaned heavily towards college guys under GM Dana Brown, part preference and part recognition that they're in win-now mode. There aren't many college players left on the board in this scenario that would fit here, guys with a plus tool or elite skill and who also look like they could help soon. Quick has the huge velocity and potential for a couple of above-average pitches, and he could move fast to the upper minors next year once he's two years off Tommy John. Devin Taylor might be their type of bat, but Brown prefers more athletic players, so maybe Mason Neville would fit? I've also heard them with California prep infielder Cooper Flemming.
Atlanta has gone for pitching in the first round in the last five drafts, so it's probably not a surprise to see them with an arm here. Wood has some of the best stuff of any starter in the class, but missed time early this spring with a shoulder issue, so some teams are probably going to be out due to the medical (about which I haven't heard any details at all, and probably won't until after the draft). I did hear them earlier in the spring with shortstop Steele Hall.
The Royals are likely to try for big upside here, even though they're picking much lower than usual — and good thing, as they were ineligible for the lottery in this draft anyway — with Schoolcraft coming up several times as a top target for them. I'd be a little surprised to see a college guy here just given who's likely to still be on the board, unless it's a power arm like Gage Wood or Patrick Forbes.
Tigers scouting director Mark Conner's first draft, the 2023 class, looks like a home run already, and their 2024 first-rounder Bryce Rainer was off to a terrific start before a season-ending shoulder injury. (Second-rounder Owen Hall is also out with a serious shoulder issue, unfortunately.) They're drafting much later this year, but I'd still bet on them going with a high school player, and de Brun fits their recent preference for guys with promising hit tools.
When in doubt, give the Padres a high-upside high school kid, right? Hall's an 80-grade runner who stays at shortstop and who is very young, as he reclassified into the 2025 draft from 2026. I've heard them with Schoolcraft, because everyone assumes they wouldn't pass up a 6-foot-8 lefty with big velocity after taking a 6-foot-4 lefty (Kash Mayfield) with big velocity last year. I could also see them going for Gage Wood or Patrick Forbes for the same reasons I attached those names to the Royals.
The Phillies have gone the high school route in the first round every year under scouting director Brian Barber, always up-the-middle position players or hard-throwing pitchers. Fisher checks a lot of boxes for a high school pitcher in general and for what the Phillies like, as he's a two-sport guy with big stuff and a delivery that works. They did go way off the board last year with their first-rounder, centerfielder Dante Nori, who is currently struggling in Low A. I've gotten the consistent sense in the last month that high school lefty Jack Bauer, who has hit 102 mph this spring, is no longer likely to go in the first round as his control and his slider have both backed up, but if anyone does take Bauer in the first anyway it would be the Phillies. I could see them on shortstop/pitcher Josh Hammond as well.
Conrad, who won't turn 21 until July 5, was surging towards the first round when he hurt his shoulder, requiring surgery that ended his season before scouts could see him against the heart of the ACC. The Guardians have done this before, taking an injured Chase DeLauter, who was still 20 years old at the draft, with their first-round pick in 2021. They're as model-heavy a drafting team as there is, which could juice guys with good batted-ball data like Mason Neville, Charles Davalan, Devin Taylor, or maybe even Luke Stevenson.
(Photo illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Sarah Phipps / The Oklahoman / USA Today Network via Imagn Images, Saul Young / News Sentinel / USA Today Network via Imagn Images, John Rivera / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)