logo
Liberals are banking on the Carney effect in Quebec

Liberals are banking on the Carney effect in Quebec

Canadian Politics
By
On a crisp but sunny afternoon recently, Nathalie Provost took to the residential streets of Châteauguay to do some door-to-door campaigning in what has come down to a race between Provost, a star candidate for the Liberals, and her Bloc Québécois rival Patrick O'Hara.
Accompanied by former Liberal cabinet minister Catherine McKenna, who'd come from Ottawa to offer support, Provost approached an elderly woman on her way to an afternoon line dancing class.
Provost asked the woman what issues she cares about in this federal election. The woman told her she is 82 years old and a retired nurse, implying seniors' issues top her concerns. The conversation was light and friendly, but when the candidate asked the voter to pose for a photo or to pledge her support, she politely declined.
The exchange underlines how hard candidates, even star candidates like Provost, must work to win support, voter by voter, in this tense and fraught federal election campaign.
Châteauguay—Lacolle was the tightest race in the country in the 2021 election, with the Bloc's O'Hara declared the winner on election night. But a recount revealed the Liberal incumbent had actually beaten O'Hara by a scant 12 votes. The riding, which stretches from Montreal's South Shore to the U.S. border, has since been redrawn to include more rural and francophone ridings and has been renamed Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville.
While polls currently favour a Liberal win here, both Provost and O'Hara say they won't be relaxing for a moment until 9:30 p.m. Monday when the polls close.
In some ways, this race mirrors what is happening across the province. Most pollsters have the Liberals in the lead, but past surprises on (and sometimes after) election night are top of mind for candidates and voters alike.
With only four days to go before the vote, the election projection website 338Canada was predicting Quebec's 78 seats would break down like this: Liberals: 41, Bloc: 24, Conservatives: 12 and NDP: 1. The same firm, which uses an aggregation of polls and other data to predict election results, was projecting that Canada-wide, the Liberals would win a majority with 186 seats, the Conservatives 124, the Bloc 24, the NDP eight and the Greens one.
It has been a remarkable turnaround for the Liberals in Quebec and across Canada. Just four months ago, an Angus Reid poll put Liberal voter support at 16 per cent, while the Conservatives seemed poised to assume power, at 45 per cent.
Daniel Béland, political scientist and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, said a series of factors have helped the Liberals turn things around, some of which were beyond their control.
'Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, they had the leadership race, Mark Carney emerged as the front-runner early on and won very easily. But then of course as all of this was happening, Donald Trump returned to the White House and the Trump effect has benefited the Liberals and hurt the Conservatives partly because of the proximity, in terms of rhetoric at least, between Trump and Pierre Poilievre.'
He said the Trump effect also hurt the NDP and the Bloc because the focus of political discourse shifted from cost-of-living issues to how to respond to Trump's tariffs and his threats to Canada's sovereignty.
'That was hard for third parties, like the Bloc and the NDP, because trade and international relations and Canada-U.S. relations are not really their forte frankly. They focus on domestic issues, especially in the case of the Bloc (which focuses on) federalism, the status of Quebec within Canada, language. And social policies and environmental policies are very important for both the Bloc and the NDP.'
Rapidly, he said, the debate came down to who can stand up to Trump.
'And basically, there are two real options, because of course (Bloc Leader Yves-François) Blanchet cannot become prime minister and (NDP Leader) Jagmeet Singh will not.'
Carney is perceived by many as 'the right person with right CV at the right time,' Béland said.
'When the debate is on trade and the economy and you have someone with a PhD in economics who is a former central banker, that became appealing and the Liberals have used it quite well. So it's a mix of timing, the Trump effect and the Carney effect that has really helped the Liberals.'
Carney has been well-received in Quebec, despite his imperfect French. At campaign stops, he uses two discrete teleprompters to help him through the French portions of his stump speech.
At a recent stop at a bus manufacturing plant in St-Eustache, workers listened politely as Carney told them about a Liberal plan to offer a mid-career retraining program to workers affected by Trump's tariffs.
After the speech, one of those workers told The Gazette he found Carney's French had improved considerably since the start of the campaign, and that Quebecers appreciate the respect Carney has shown for their language. That doesn't mean he will vote Liberal, however.
'It won't change anything for me,' said Marc Rousseau, group leader for the Nova Bus training department. 'I am glad to be here anyway to listen to him, even if I won't vote for him. I will vote Bloc for Quebec. But if the Bloc didn't exist, I would vote for him.'
He said he trusts Carney and is glad he appears poised to be Canada's next prime minister. But he wants Quebecers to have a strong voice in parliament and he favours the Bloc to be that voice.
This is the kind of thinking the Bloc's O'Hara is hoping will finally win him the seat he thought he'd won in the last election.
Born in British Columbia, raised on a farm in Mascouche, O'Hara is a businessman and community fundraiser based in Châteauguay for most of the past 30 years.
He says he's hearing good support for the Bloc as he goes door-to-door, not to mention getting a lot of compassion for his bitter loss in 2021. He had hired staff and moved into an office on Parliament Hill before he learned he'd lost in that recount 10 days after the election. He actually had to pay back his first paycheque.
'I can confirm it is going to be a very close race. I am sensing a race as close as it was in 2021. We've knocked on over 1,500 doors and it's very positive for us. We are going into this last week stronger and more motivated than ever with 60 to 80 volunteers. So it's very positive.'
He acknowledged though, that Trump's trade war and threats are playing a major part in local campaigns.
'I hear more about Donald Trump on the door-to-door than I hear about my adversary,' he said.
For Provost, gaining a voice in the Liberal caucus would mean she can continue her 35-year fight for gun control and against conjugal violence. An engineer who survived the mass shooting at Montreal's Polytechnique in 1989, Provost has devoted much of her life to pushing the federal government to adopt a permanent ban on assault-style weapons. She says she entered the race in March because she couldn't bear to see the Conservatives destroy the advances that Liberals have made on gun control in the past 10 years.
Provost admits that some of the voters she encounters say they don't know Mark Carney. And even though Carney blundered earlier in the campaign by mispronouncing Provost's name and misnaming the Polytechnique, she has faith in him.
Like O'Hara, Provost finds herself discussing the Trump threat, as much as local issues, when she goes door-to-door.
'I strongly believe that if there is one man able to navigate the economic crisis, it's him. ... We need someone strong and we need someone who inspires respect from Donald Trump. (Carney) is quiet. He's calm. He's not a show-off. He doesn't want to be in the tabloids, as was natural for Justin Trudeau. (Trudeau) is a handsome man, very charming and close to people. But Donald Trump felt threatened by that kind of golden boy. Mark Carney inspires respect but doesn't threaten him with his public image.'

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

BC Ferries deal with Chinese shipyard makes waves in Ottawa
BC Ferries deal with Chinese shipyard makes waves in Ottawa

Edmonton Journal

time22 minutes ago

  • Edmonton Journal

BC Ferries deal with Chinese shipyard makes waves in Ottawa

Article content OTTAWA — BC Ferries set off a tidal wave of controversy on Tuesday after announcing a major shipbuilding deal with a Chinese state-owned enterprise, with the ripple effects of the decision reaching Ottawa. Vancouver Island Conservative MP Jeff Kibble raised the issue in Wednesday's question period, accusing the Liberal government of rewarding the provincial carrier for selling out Canada's national interest.

First Nations opposition continues after passing of Ontario's Bill 5
First Nations opposition continues after passing of Ontario's Bill 5

CBC

time25 minutes ago

  • CBC

First Nations opposition continues after passing of Ontario's Bill 5

Many First Nations people in Ontario are continuing protests following the passing of Bill 5 in Ontario last week. Bill 5, the Protecting Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act, allows the province to create special economic zones, where companies or projects can be exempted from having to comply with a provincial law, provincial regulation or municipal bylaw. Shem Mattinas, from Moose Cree First Nation on James Bay, was one of the organizers of a protest in Timmins, Ont., last Friday. "This will affect all of us; it threatens our land, our water, and our democratic rights," he said. "This isn't only a First Nations issue; it's an Ontario issue." The premier has said one of those special economic zones will be the mineral-rich Ring of Fire region on Treaty 9 territory in northwestern Ontario. "Attawapiskat River is right in the middle of the Ring of Fire. The First Nations along that river will be deeply affected by poisons and chemicals if this kind of development goes forward unchecked," Mattinas said. Mattinas said it was important for him to organize a protest because he's always heard "when youth speak, that's when people listen." The province has said the law is aimed at speeding up major infrastructure and resource projects. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Friday he intends to designate the Ring of Fire as a special economic zone "as quickly as possible." He added he and several ministers will consult all summer with First Nations about the new law before making the designation. People also continue to rally at the provincial legislature at Queen's Park in Toronto. Myka Burning from Six Nations of the Grand River said she will be one of the people maintaining a presence there. She said those gathered are calling on Indigenous nations across the country to support them, not just Ontario, because of the law's widespread environmental implications but also because she believes it sets a precedent. "I feel like there has been consistent voicing of opposition as it's been coming down like the pipes and that's just not being respected," she said. Concern for caribou Bill 5 also scraps Ontario's Endangered Species Act and replaces it with a new law called the Species Conservation Act, which critics say waters down protections. Jennifer Franks, the director of Indigenous Relations at the Toronto Zoo, said there was "resounding disappointment" around the passing of Bill 5 with the zoo's Indigenous advisory circle. Franks, who is Red River Métis from Birch Hills, Sask., said the zoo's mission is to "connect people, animals, traditional knowledge and conservation science to fight extinction," like the zoo's caribou biobanking project in the Hudson Bay region, where they help collect samples from hunted caribou for genetic preservation. Caribou are traditionally hunted by the Cree and Anishinaabe who live in the Ring of Fire area. In Ontario, caribou is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Habitat loss and human activities are among the threats to the province's caribou. Toronto Zoo CEO Dolf Dejong, who spoke out against the bill at a committee hearing at Queens Park in May, said he wasn't surprised the bill passed despite opposition and said he's concerned special economic zones could be designated anywhere, effectively undoing decades of work in conservation. "They've been very clear that they intended to move quickly," he said.

'Another historical event,' Tłı̨chǫ grand chief says of new female chief in Behchokǫ
'Another historical event,' Tłı̨chǫ grand chief says of new female chief in Behchokǫ

CBC

time25 minutes ago

  • CBC

'Another historical event,' Tłı̨chǫ grand chief says of new female chief in Behchokǫ

Tłı̨chǫ leaders say residents have opted for change after Bertha Rabesca-Zoe was voted to replace longtime chief Clifford Daniels to lead Behchokǫ̀, N.W.T., after Monday's election. Tłı̨chǫ Grand Chief Jackson Lafferty and Chief-elect Rabesca-Zoe say it's the first time a woman will lead the community. "I think being the first female chief has a lot of significance for many people, especially our young ladies," Rabesca-Zoe said. "With education and determination and commitment, you can achieve whatever goals you set for yourself." Rabesca-Zoe will become the third female chief out of four Tłı̨chǫ communities, joining Wekweètı̀ Chief Adeline Football and Gamètı̀ Chief Doreen Arrowmaker. Rabesca-Zoe described Behchokǫ̀ as a predominantly Catholic community and said she thinks some still carry the belief that women shouldn't lead but Monday's election shows a push for new direction. "I think people just generally were ready for change," she said. Lafferty also pointed to the fact that many of the new councillors are young, something that he said also signifies the public's want for fresh ideas for the region. Lafferty recognized outgoing Behchokǫ̀ chief Clifford Daniels, who served for 16 years, and outgoing Whatı̀ chief Alfonz Nitsiza. He said he's looking forward to working with all of the new and returning leaders. "It's another historical event," he said. "Things are changing with us." For Rabesca-Zoe, the first order of business will be to meet with council to set priorities. She said she's keen to get to work on tackling the housing and drug crises in her community. She says she's considering a 24-hour blockade to stop the flow of drugs into Behchokǫ̀ and will look forward to hearing other ideas on how best to serve the community.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store