Border tensions rise as Thaksin court ruling looms June 13

The Star

2 days ago

BANGKOK: As the June 13 court ruling on Thaksin Shinawatra nears, Thai-Cambodian border tensions are intensifying, fuelling speculation of political distractions and raising questions about intertwined family interests between Bangkok and Phnom Penh.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Deputy Prime Minister/Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai are facing intense public backlash after news broke that they rejected a military proposal to shut down border crossings with Cambodia.
The proposal followed a formal letter from the Thai military citing serious concerns over Cambodian troops amassing along disputed territory claimed by Thailand.
The letter stated that nearly half of Cambodia's army, equipped with heavy weaponry, had been deployed to the Chong Bok area, with artillery guns pointed toward Thai positions — a move viewed as overtly threatening.
The Thai military expressed discomfort over what it described as Cambodian encroachment. It argued that a failure to act might be perceived as Thailand conceding its claim, and therefore called for the closure of the entire Thai-Cambodian border to protect national sovereignty and ensure public safety.
However, Phumtham urged restraint, advising the military to remain calm and avoid escalating tensions. He warned that a border shutdown could harm tourism and cross-border trade, potentially worsening Thailand's already fragile economy.
Adding to the complexity, a meeting of the Thai-Cambodian Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) is scheduled for mid-June to address the ongoing dispute.
Behind the scenes, high-level Cambodian leaders — including Prime Minister Hun Manet and Deputy PM/Defence Minister Gen Tea Seiha — reportedly contacted senior figures in the Thai government, asking them to delay the border closure decision.
There's no denying the growing public unease within Thailand over the government's surprisingly restrained response to escalating tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border.
While Cambodia has taken an aggressive stance, threatening to take the territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and warning of potential military action, Thailand's official posture has remained cautious.
The Cambodian side has clearly adopted a rapid and forceful approach, notably as the Thai Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions prepares to hear a case on June 13 involving former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's hospital stay while in prison.
Fuelling speculation is a recent social media post by Hun Sen, Cambodia's Senate President and longtime ally of Thaksin. In his post, Hun Sen adopted a confrontational tone, sharing images of disputed border areas and citing them as evidence of Cambodia's territorial claims.
Meanwhile, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet issued a stern statement reaffirming that while Cambodia prefers to resolve border issues through legal and technical channels, it reserves the right to use military force if its territory is encroached upon.
Hun Manet emphasized that Cambodia is committed to peaceful resolution mechanisms under international law but has also ordered the following steps:
Immediate convening of the Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) with Thailand to resume demarcation and installation of border markers.
Inclusion of key disputed areas—Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Toch, Ta Kro Bei Temple, and the Mombei zone—on the JBC agenda, with a view to escalating the case to the ICJ.
Hun Sen has publicly endorsed Hun Manet's move to pursue legal action at the international level, backing efforts to bring the disputes over Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Toch, Ta Kro Bei, and the Emerald Triangle to the ICJ.
The Royal Thai Army has confirmed that both Thai and Cambodian troops have pulled back from the frontline at the Chong Bok border crossing in a de-escalation move ahead of talks under the JBC framework.
Army spokesperson Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree stated that both sides agreed to step back from potential flashpoints to allow diplomatic and legal mechanisms—particularly through the JBC—to address issues related to border demarcation and relevant treaties or memorandums of understanding (MoUs).
According to Gen Pana Klaewblaudtuk, Army Commander-in-Chief, three key points were agreed upon during recent discussions with his Cambodian counterpart:
A mutual withdrawal of troops from the disputed zone;
A commitment to resolve the matter through the JBC mechanism;
A pledge to adhere strictly to prior agreements, treaties, and joint operating protocols to prevent future tensions.
'The existing agreements stipulate that disputed zones—such as the area where defensive trenches have been dug—are to be left untouched. There must be no changes to terrain, no deployment of troops, and no artillery aimed at the Thai side. We must uphold these mutual understandings before considering any further measures,' Winthai emphasised.
An important note is that Cambodia will host the upcoming JBC meeting, and therefore holds the authority to set the date, time, and venue. The meeting is expected to take place in mid-June, likely after the politically sensitive June 13 court date for Thaksin.
All eyes are now on the Thai-Cambodian border at Chong Bok, as tensions threaten to escalate in the run-up to the June 13 court hearing that could determine the fate of Thaksin. The verdict—whether in his favour or not—may have far-reaching implications, including along the border.
If the court's ruling goes against Thaksin, unrest at the Chong Bok crossing could spill over to other border provinces such as Sa Kaeo and Si Sa Ket. Analysts warn this could be part of a deliberate effort to divert public attention from domestic political drama by shifting focus to a military standoff with Cambodia.
The situation bears striking resemblance to the final stages of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's rice-pledging case. At that time, national attention fixated on the Supreme Court, only for Yingluck to flee the country before the verdict was delivered.
The intertwining of the Shinawatra and Hun Sen families adds another layer of intrigue. Their relationship spans politics, business, and even personal ties—most notably through the marriage connection between the daughter of Yaowapa Wongsawat (Thaksin's sister) and a son of one of Hun Sen's close political allies.
During Hun Sen's 71st birthday in 2023, he famously expressed two heartfelt wishes: for his 'dear friend' Thaksin to return safely to Thailand, and to one day see his son, Hun Manet, and Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, rise to become prime ministers of their respective nations—a vision he believed would solidify Thai-Cambodian relations.
Now, however, that vision is clouded by legal peril. Thaksin faces a new challenge with the so-called 'Ward 14 Case,' and the outcome remains uncertain.
As tensions rise, the government—especially Paetongtarn, now Prime Minister and seen as a political protégé and daughter figure to Thaksin—will be under pressure to provide clear, reasoned leadership.
The current flare-up at the border may well be a byproduct of these entangled personal and political interests.
Regardless of how the court rules, many observers believe Cambodia stands to gain—either diplomatically or strategically—while Thailand risks losing ground, both literally and figuratively, under the weight of overlapping family and political interests. - The Nation/ANN