Trump and electoral coattails
Opinion
The dictionary defines a 'horse whisperer' as 'someone who is skilled at training horses using gentle, non-violent methods based on understanding horse behaviour and psychology.' By that standard, the only 'Trump-whisperer' in Europe is Vladimir Putin (although Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Italy's Giorgia Meloni might get bit-parts in the movie).
The other far-right parties in big European countries (Rassemblement National in France, Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, PiS in Poland, Reform in the United Kingdom) don't know which way to look. They know that the U.S. Republican Party is in the same tradition, but European history has also taught them to recognize fascism when they see it.
They all do well in elections by being fascist-adjacent, but they start to shed votes if they get too explicit about their ideas. Nowhere do they get more than a third of the votes, whereas Donald Trump got more than half in the United States this time. They cannot follow him where he seems to be going, and many of them wouldn't even want to.
A better measure of how Trumpism does in the export market will be found in the other parts of the 'Anglosphere,' and happily there are two elections in that zone in the next two weeks, in Canada and Australia. They couldn't be farther apart geographically, but with the great exception of the 'French fact' in Quebec they couldn't be closer in their history and politics.
The beauty of this experiment is that just three months ago, the opposition party in both countries was fairly far right and becoming more so — and that both parties were led by men who could reasonably be characterized as Trump-whisperers, or at least Trump wannabes. Most importantly, both parties expected to win the impending elections in a walk.
Both prime ministerial candidates, Peter Dutton of the conservative Coalition in Australia and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party in Canada, concentrated on Trump's main themes: immigration, crime, an end to the 'indoctrination' of children in schools, and big cuts to 'wasteful' government services. Dutton even proposed an agency like Elon Musk's DOGE.
Indeed, while Poilievre has had great difficulty in taking his distance from Trump, Dutton has not even cut the umbilical cord. Not only did he promise to cancel offshore windfarms (a Trump obsession), but he even echoed The Donald's claim that they harm whales. Australian pollster Peter Lewis says simply that people think Dutton is 'too much like Trump.'
There is no doubt that it was Trump and only Trump who turned the elections in both Canada and Australia from surefire victories into certain defeats for the right-wing parties. When Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 of this year, both conservatives were far ahead of their opponents, but their numbers began to slide almost immediately.
In Australia, a safe distance away from the United States, other factors were also in play, but a swing of almost ten points in three months suggests that the Trump factor was decisive. In Canada, where there was a swing of more than 20 points in two months, there can be no doubt that it was Trump who enabled Poilievre to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
To explain this we must move from the realm of facts and calculations to the slippery world of motives and emotions, because it seems pretty clear that these votes did not shift because of self-interest or ideological conviction. They were mostly driven, I think, by revulsion at the character of the man Donald Trump.
In Canada there was also a change of leader from the deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau to the relatively unknown Mark Carney, which lured some people back into the big Liberal tent. There was certainly outrage at Trump's threats to crush the economy and take over the country, which doubtless moved more votes to Carney.
But none of that applies to Australia. There it is simple guilt by association that has brought Peter Dutton low and will probably cost him the election. It's unworthy of me, I know, but I take a certain comfort from that.
Gwynne Dyer's new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World's Climate Engineers.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
National Observer
32 minutes ago
- National Observer
‘Harper's dreams coming true': MPs slam Carney's fast-tracking plan
Prime Minister Mark Carney's new bill to fast-track major projects will have to rely on Conservative votes to pass, with all other parties expressing major reservations. The legislation would allow the federal government to conditionally approve projects it deems 'in the national interest' before an environmental or impact assessment or other regulatory processes take place. Both the NDP and Greens have spoken out against it, while Patrick Bonin, Bloc Québécois environment and climate change critic, called Carney's plan to fast-track major projects 'highly problematic' at a French-language press conference on Monday. The federal government is seeking to give itself 'superpowers' to accelerate projects and weaken environmental protections, Bonin said. Some of the factors used to evaluate whether a project is in the national interest are vague, and there's no obligation for the government to adhere to it, he added. Then, there is the question of sovereignty and whether provinces can say no to projects in their jurisdiction. Last week, Carney said projects need consensus from provinces to move forward, but the legislation doesn't spell that out, leaving room for potential overreach on provincial jurisdiction, Bonin said. The Building Canada Act is part of an omnibus bill that also includes action to remove federal barriers to interprovincial trade, which is less controversial than the changes to major project approvals. On Monday, the Bloc Québécois called on the federal government to split the omnibus bill into two separate bills so the issues can be studied in the relevant federal committees. The federal Conservatives have not confirmed whether they will support the bill — Leader Pierre Poilievre said caucus will discuss it on Wednesday. For the Conservatives, the question is not whether legislation is perfect, but whether it is better than the way things are, Poilievre said on Friday. 'That's what we'll be looking at as we study this newly-introduced bill over the next few days.' 'We would vote in favour of accelerating even one project,' Poilievre said, indicating that he wants to see new pipelines in particular. 'Once a project is on that list, it's not a question of if it's going to move forward, but how,' Alexandre Boulerice, NDP critic for environment and climate change, said. 'It's like Stephen Harper's dreams coming true." Last week, BC Premier David Eby said he will not support Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's vision of building a new oil pipeline to BC's north coast. Poilievre made it clear he doesn't think provinces should get veto power over nationally important projects. 'We need a pipeline to the Pacific, and if the prime minister says he's going to wait till everyone agrees, then nothing will get done, which is what has been happening for the last decade,' Poilievre said at a press conference at Parliament Hill on Monday. If the Conservatives support Bill C-5, the Liberals will have the votes they need to get it through the House of Commons. The NDP says its members will vote against the bill, with one MP calling the major projects section 'really dangerous.' 'Once a project is on that list, it's not a question of if it's going to move forward, but how,' Alexandre Boulerice, NDP critic for environment and climate change, said in a phone interview with Canada's National Observer. 'It's like Stephen Harper's dreams coming true.' He said the NDP is currently exploring possible options to block the bill, but any action would likely require cooperation with the Bloc Québécois. Either way, Boulerice doesn't see how the federal government can rush the bill through by July 1, given that there are less than two weeks left before the House rises for the summer. 'It's a really capitalist logic that what we need to do is to provide certainty to investors and companies,' Boulerice said. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May also criticized the proposed legislation in a June 9 press release. 'Bill C-5 gives the federal Cabinet sweeping discretion to fast-track projects while weakening Indigenous rights and environmental protections,' May's statement reads. 'This is the first time in 40 years that Canadian environmental assessment law has been written to serve political deals first and environmental responsibility second.' Factors for determining national interest 'carefully worded' The bill lists some factors the government may consider when deciding whether a project will be listed for fast-tracking, one of which is whether it will 'contribute to clean growth and to meeting Canada's objectives with respect to climate change.' Another factor is whether it will 'advance the interests of Indigenous peoples.' Boulerice said these are nothing more than broad slogans. Mark Winfield, a professor of environmental governance at York University, was of the same mind. 'These are attempts to cover off points of potential vulnerability,' he said in a phone interview with C anada's National Observer. The bill does not have a clear definition of 'clean growth,' he said, which creates huge loopholes for approving projects or employing technologies that many Canadians wouldn't consider 'clean.' 'The government has been very liberal in its definition of 'clean' to include things like CCUS [carbon capture, utilisation and storage], critical minerals, [and] nuclear,' Winfield said. The bill raises serious questions about how the federal government will reconcile Canada's climate change obligations with all the talk of potential pipeline and fossil fuel export projects at the same time as northern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario are going up in smoke, he added. 'Everybody thinks that it's an open door for pipelines, in fact, for oil and gas,' Boulerice said. 'It's not about solving the housing crisis with a big project of building millions of homes. It's about energy.' Carney has made repeated references to both clean and conventional energy, the latter of which refers to fossil fuels like oil and gas. Carney has referenced 'decarbonized' oil and used the Pathways Alliance's proposed multi-billion dollar carbon capture project as an example of projects that could be considered for fast-tracking. 'Oil is carbon. There's no such thing as decarbonized oil,' Angela Carter, an associate professor of political science at Memorial University of Newfoundland, said in a phone interview. 'We need to be very, very careful about this definition of clean growth. If it's a project that contributes to sustaining and growing oil production, well, that's not clean growth. It's very, very, very simple.' Bloc Québécois House Leader Christine Normandin said it's too early to say whether her party will support the bill. First, they want the government to respond to their request to split the bill into two parts, one for interprovincial trade and one for major projects. 'In a sense, this is taking what Stephen Harper tried to do with C-38 and putting it on steroids … The problem with trying to take shortcuts is it has a tendency to backfire and to make the underlying conflicts worse than ever,' Winfield said. 'Look what happened: Northern Gateway died, Energy East went nowhere, it took extraordinary steps to get Trans Mountain done.' The biggest challenge for Carney's government will likely be navigating Indigenous opposition and constitutional rights, said Michael Wernick, former clerk of the Privy Council. Indigenous Peoples have the most 'legal ability' to slow things down, he said, adding that it is not unsolvable for the Carney government but will be a key hurdle. Assembly of First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak voiced her concerns with the bill on Friday and called an emergency meeting on it this week. Onlookers and experts who care about climate are looking on with 'considerable uncertainty' because the bill could allow for massive progress to be made on an east-west electricity grid or fast-tracking renewable energy infrastructure, but that may not be the case, James Rowe, an associate professor of environmental studies at the University of Victoria, said. 'Given the political economy of Canada as the fourth largest oil producer in the world … it's more likely those real powerful forces are going to get their way — and projects that might otherwise have been stopped by regulatory processes and consultations … are going to get fast-tracked,' he said.
CBC
an hour ago
- CBC
Bromance turns bitter + Trump's student visa threat
The National breaks down how the Trump–Musk relationship went from bromance to breakup. And About That host Andrew Chang explains the problem with Trump's plan to 'aggressively revoke' visas of Chinese nationals studying in the U.S.
Toronto Star
an hour ago
- Toronto Star
Israel deports Greta Thunberg after Gaza-bound ship she was on was seized
JERUSALEM (AP) — Activist Greta Thunberg was deported from Israel on Tuesday, the country's Foreign Ministry said, a day after the Gaza-bound ship she was on was seized by the Israeli military. Thunberg left on a flight to France and was then headed to her home country of Sweden, Israel's Foreign Ministry said in a post on X. It posted a photo of Thunberg, who shuns air travel, seated on a plane. Thunberg was one of 12 passengers on the Madleen, a ship carrying aid to Gaza that was meant to protest Israel's ongoing war there and shed light on the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territory, according to the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, the group behind the journey. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Israeli naval forces seized the boat without incident early Monday about 200 kilometers (125 miles) off of Gaza's coast, according to the coalition, which along with rights groups, said Israel's actions were a violation of international law. Israel rejects that charge because it says such ships intend to breach what it says is a lawful naval blockade of Gaza. The boat, accompanied by Israel's navy, arrived in the Israeli port of Ashdod Monday evening, according to Israel's Foreign Ministry. Adalah, a legal rights group in Israel representing the activists, said Thunberg, two other activists and a journalist had agreed to be deported and leave Israel. The other eight activists refused deportation, were being held in detention and their case was set to be heard by Israeli authorities, Adalah said. The activists were expected to be brought before a court later Tuesday, the group added. Sabine Haddad, a spokeswoman for Israel's Interior Ministry, said the activists who were being deported Tuesday had waived their right to appear before a judge. Those who did not will face one and will be held for 96 hours before being deported. Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament who is of Palestinian descent, was also among the volunteers on board. She has been barred from entering Israel because of her opposition to Israeli policies toward the Palestinians. It was not immediately clear whether she was being immediately deported or detained. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Tuesday that one of the detained French activists signed an expulsion order and will leave Israel on Tuesday for France. The other five refused. He said all the activists received consular visits. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW On Monday, Adalah, the rights group, said that Israel had 'no legal authority' to take over the ship, because the group said it was in international waters and it was headed not to Israel but to the 'territorial waters of the state of Palestine.' Amnesty International said Israel was flouting international law with the naval raid and called on Israel to release the activists immediately and unconditionally. 'The arrest of the unarmed activists, who operated in a civilian manner to provide humanitarian aid, amounts to a serious breach of international law,' Adalah said in a statement. Israel viewed the ship as a publicity stunt, calling it the 'selfie yacht.' Israeli officials said that the flotilla was bringing 'meager' aid with what amounted to less than a truckload of goods. ___ Associated Press writers Angela Charlton in Paris and Tia Goldenberg in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed to this report. ___ Follow AP's war coverage at
