
Trump and electoral coattails
Opinion
The dictionary defines a 'horse whisperer' as 'someone who is skilled at training horses using gentle, non-violent methods based on understanding horse behaviour and psychology.' By that standard, the only 'Trump-whisperer' in Europe is Vladimir Putin (although Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Italy's Giorgia Meloni might get bit-parts in the movie).
The other far-right parties in big European countries (Rassemblement National in France, Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, PiS in Poland, Reform in the United Kingdom) don't know which way to look. They know that the U.S. Republican Party is in the same tradition, but European history has also taught them to recognize fascism when they see it.
They all do well in elections by being fascist-adjacent, but they start to shed votes if they get too explicit about their ideas. Nowhere do they get more than a third of the votes, whereas Donald Trump got more than half in the United States this time. They cannot follow him where he seems to be going, and many of them wouldn't even want to.
A better measure of how Trumpism does in the export market will be found in the other parts of the 'Anglosphere,' and happily there are two elections in that zone in the next two weeks, in Canada and Australia. They couldn't be farther apart geographically, but with the great exception of the 'French fact' in Quebec they couldn't be closer in their history and politics.
The beauty of this experiment is that just three months ago, the opposition party in both countries was fairly far right and becoming more so — and that both parties were led by men who could reasonably be characterized as Trump-whisperers, or at least Trump wannabes. Most importantly, both parties expected to win the impending elections in a walk.
Both prime ministerial candidates, Peter Dutton of the conservative Coalition in Australia and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party in Canada, concentrated on Trump's main themes: immigration, crime, an end to the 'indoctrination' of children in schools, and big cuts to 'wasteful' government services. Dutton even proposed an agency like Elon Musk's DOGE.
Indeed, while Poilievre has had great difficulty in taking his distance from Trump, Dutton has not even cut the umbilical cord. Not only did he promise to cancel offshore windfarms (a Trump obsession), but he even echoed The Donald's claim that they harm whales. Australian pollster Peter Lewis says simply that people think Dutton is 'too much like Trump.'
There is no doubt that it was Trump and only Trump who turned the elections in both Canada and Australia from surefire victories into certain defeats for the right-wing parties. When Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 of this year, both conservatives were far ahead of their opponents, but their numbers began to slide almost immediately.
In Australia, a safe distance away from the United States, other factors were also in play, but a swing of almost ten points in three months suggests that the Trump factor was decisive. In Canada, where there was a swing of more than 20 points in two months, there can be no doubt that it was Trump who enabled Poilievre to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
To explain this we must move from the realm of facts and calculations to the slippery world of motives and emotions, because it seems pretty clear that these votes did not shift because of self-interest or ideological conviction. They were mostly driven, I think, by revulsion at the character of the man Donald Trump.
In Canada there was also a change of leader from the deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau to the relatively unknown Mark Carney, which lured some people back into the big Liberal tent. There was certainly outrage at Trump's threats to crush the economy and take over the country, which doubtless moved more votes to Carney.
But none of that applies to Australia. There it is simple guilt by association that has brought Peter Dutton low and will probably cost him the election. It's unworthy of me, I know, but I take a certain comfort from that.
Gwynne Dyer's new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World's Climate Engineers.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Japan Forward
an hour ago
- Japan Forward
AI Tool 'KIBIT': A Game Changer in New Drug Development
このページを 日本語 で読む The COVID-19 pandemic reminded the world of the importance of drug discovery. However, modern drug discoveries require massive financial investment. Meanwhile, the use of artificial intelligence for AI drug discovery is gaining attention as a way to control soaring pharmaceutical prices. And a Japanese-made AI tool named 'KIBIT' is about to open up a new stage in this field. President Donald Trump issued executive orders in April and May mandating the reduction of domestic drug prices in the United States. Accompanying White House fact sheets refer to the high cost Americans pay for prescriptions, which is 2.78 times higher than the OECD average. Prescription costs are also 3.47 times higher than in Japan. Trump sees these high costs to consumers as a serious issue. In Japan, a national drug pricing system sets medication prices, enabling access to affordable treatments due to governmental oversight. In contrast, US pharmaceutical companies can set prices freely. This often results in higher charges than in other countries. Following his May 12 executive order, Trump stated that his orders would cut prices by 59% to as much as 90% to align with the levels of other countries. This could potentially result in significant revenue losses for the pharmaceutical industry. In the case of Japan, major pharmaceutical companies such as Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited and Astellas Pharma Inc earn over 30% of their revenue from the US. According to his comments, the President could impose additional tariffs on foreign-manufactured drugs if prices are not reduced. In the search for new drugs and treatments (Screenshot, ©FRONTEO Inc) One major reason for rising drug prices is the increasing cost of research and development. The average R&D spending by Japanese pharmaceutical companies rose from ¥30.2 billion JPY ($298.7 million USD) in 1993 to 163.3 billion ($1.13 billion) in 2019 — a 5.4-fold increase over 26 years. US companies saw an even sharper rise, from $841 million (¥121.1 billion) to $7.449 billion (¥1.0725 trillion). That marked an 8.8-fold increase. Moreover, investing in R&D doesn't guarantee success. The probability of developing a successful drug in Japan dropped from 1 in 13,000 two decades ago to 1 in 23,000 recently. Despite the increasing costs, results are scarce. Consequently, the R&D-to-revenue ratio rose from about 10% in 1993 to around 18% in 2019 in both countries. Introducing KIBIT. (Screenshot ©FRONTEO Inc) AI is being eyed as a solution to reduce R&D costs by dramatically cutting time and expenses. Drug development involves four stages: Basic research & target identification Compound optimization Preclinical trials and Clinical trials. Many AI vendors are involved in drug discovery. In particular, they focus on reducing costs in the third (preclinical) and fourth (clinical) stages. However, most companies have yet to tackle the critical first stage — target identification. Introducing KIBIT. (Screenshot, ©FRONTEO Inc) The first enterprise to address this initial stage is the Japanese company FRONTEO. Utilizing its proprietary natural language processing AI engine KIBIT, the company analyzes vast medical and pharmaceutical literature to generate innovative drug ideas that researchers may not have considered. Human thinking is inherently biased. The more experienced a researcher is, the more difficult it becomes to identify novel molecular targets. Stated another way, the bias of experience often blocks new ideas. KIBIT, however, is free from such biases. It identifies new molecular targets that might be effective against specific diseases. To do so, it analyzes vast amounts of academic literature. It can even derive specific hypotheses. Furthermore, KIBIT can identify and suggest highly disease-relevant target molecules that are not explicitly mentioned in the literature. This significantly enhances drug discovery potential. How KIBIT works. (Screenshot, ©FRONTEO Inc) Only a few countries have the capacity to develop new drugs. In 2024, among newly approved pharmaceuticals in Japan, the US, and Europe, the US led with 143 products. Japan followed with just 12, roughly equal to the United Kingdom's 10. According to the statistics "Nationalities of companies creating the top 100 drugs in the world by sales (2022),": United States – 52 United Kingdom – 10 Switzerland – 9 Germany – 8 Denmark – 8 Japan – 7 Most countries, other than the US, struggle to produce blockbuster drugs. In this context, hopes are high for FRONTEO's KIBIT. If it can consistently generate innovative new drugs efficiently, it may help deliver affordable medicines to those in need, without Mr Trump's intervention. FRONTEO's AI drug discovery service, utilizing KIBIT, is already being adopted by several major pharmaceutical companies. Those leveraging KIBIT to create new drugs could become game changers in the industry. This article is contributed by FRONTEO Inc, a supporting member of JAPAN Forward. (Read the report in Japanese.) Author: FRONTEO Inc. このページを 日本語 で読む


Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Los Angeles imposes downtown curfew as protests against Trump's immigration crackdown continue
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Los Angeles leaders imposed a downtown curfew through Wednesday morning to deal with protests against President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, while the governor accused him of drawing a 'military dragnet' across the nation's second-largest city with his escalating use of the National Guard. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom asked a court to put an emergency stop to the military helping federal immigration agents, with some guardsmen now standing in protection around agents as they carried out arrests. He said it would only heighten tensions and promote civil unrest. The judge chose not to rule immediately, giving the administration several days to continue those activities before a hearing Thursday. The change moves troops closer to engaging in law enforcement actions like deportations as Trump has promised as part of his administration's immigration crackdown. The Guard has the authority to temporarily detain people who attack officers but any arrests ultimately would be made by law enforcement. Trump has activated more than 4,000 National Guard members and 700 Marines over the objections of city and state leaders, though the Marines have not yet been spotted in Los Angeles and Guard troops have had limited engagement with protesters. They were originally deployed to protect federal buildings. As the curfew went into effect Tuesday night, a police helicopter flew over downtown federal buildings that have been the center of protests and ordered people to leave the area. Riot police on horses and foot surrounded a group of a few hundred that had gathered in the area, shouting: 'Move!' Most of the protesters scattered, with some regrouping and refusing orders to disperse. Officials said the curfew was necessary to stop vandalism and theft by agitators looking to cause trouble. Demonstrations have spread to other cities nationwide, including Dallas and Austin, Texas, Chicago and New York, where a thousand people rallied and multiple arrests were made. In Texas, where police in Austin used chemical irritants to disperse several hundred demonstrators Monday, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's office said Texas National Guard troops were 'on standby' in areas where demonstrations are planned, Abbott spokesperson Andrew Mahaleris said Tuesday evening. Guard members were deployed to San Antonio, according to assistant police chief Jesse Salame. He said he did not know how many were sent or details on the deployment. LA mayor puts curfew in place Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass declared a local emergency on the fifth day of protests and said the curfew will run from 8 p.m. Tuesday until 6 a.m. Wednesday. She said it was expected to last for several days. 'We reached a tipping point' after 23 businesses were looted, Bass said during a news conference Tuesday. The curfew covers a 1 square mile (2.5 square kilometer) section of downtown that includes the area where protests have occurred since Friday. The city of Los Angeles encompasses roughly 500 square miles (nearly 2,300 square kilometers). The curfew doesn't apply to residents who live in the designated area, people who are homeless, credentialed media or public safety and emergency officials, according to Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell. McDonnell said 'unlawful and dangerous behavior' had been escalating since Saturday. 'The curfew is a necessary measure to protect lives and safeguard property following several consecutive days of growing unrest throughout the city,' McDonnell said. Trump says he's open to using Insurrection Act Trump left open the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act, which authorizes the president to deploy military forces inside the U.S. to suppress rebellion or domestic violence or to enforce the law in certain situations. It's one of the most extreme emergency powers available to a U.S. president. 'If there's an insurrection, I would certainly invoke it. We'll see,' he said from the Oval Office. Later the president called protesters 'animals' and 'a foreign enemy' in a speech at Fort Bragg ostensibly to recognize the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army. Trump has described Los Angeles in dire terms that Bass and Newsom say are nowhere close to the truth. In a public address Tuesday evening, Newsom called Trump's actions the start of an 'assault' on democracy. 'California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next,' he said. Newsom warned people against inciting violence, but urged them to stand up to the president's actions. 'What Donald Trump wants most is your fealty, your silence. To be complicit in this moment,' he said. 'Do not give it to him.' The protests began Friday after federal immigration raids arrested dozens of workers in Los Angeles. Protesters blocked a major freeway and set cars on fire over the weekend, and police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and flash-bang grenades. The demonstrations have been mostly concentrated downtown in the city of 4 million. Thousands of people have peacefully rallied outside City Hall and hundreds more protested outside a federal complex that includes a detention center where some immigrants are being held following workplace raids. Despite the protests, immigration enforcement activity has continued throughout the county, with city leaders and community groups reporting ICE present at libraries, car washes and Home Depots. School graduations in Los Angeles have increased security over fears of ICE action and some have offered parents the option to watch on Zoom. McDonnell said that police had made 197 arrests on Tuesday, including 67 who were taken into custody for unlawfully occupying part of the 101 freeway. Several businesses were broken into Monday, though authorities didn't say if the looting was tied to the protests. The vast majority of arrests have been for failing to disperse, while a few others were for assault with a deadly weapon, looting, vandalism and attempted murder for tossing a Molotov cocktail. Seven police officers were reportedly injured, and at least two were taken to a hospital and released. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested Tuesday that the use of troops inside the U.S. will continue to expand. The Pentagon said deploying the National Guard and Marines costs $134 million. ___ Baldor and Copp reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Dorany Pineda and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles, Amy Taxin in Orange County, California, John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio, Jim Vertuno in Austin, Texas, Hallie Golden in Seattle, and Greg Bull in Seal Beach, California, contributed to this report.

Globe and Mail
2 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and EU urge Trump not to impose new airplane tariffs
Five nations and the European Union, as well as airlines and aerospace firms worldwide, urged the Trump administration not to impose new national security tariffs on imported commercial planes and parts, documents released on Tuesday showed. Airlines and planemakers have been lobbying President Donald Trump to restore the tariff-free regime under the 1979 Civil Aircraft Agreement that has yielded an annual trade surplus of US$75 billion for the U.S. industry. The documents made public by the U.S. Commerce Department bared concerns over the fallout of possible new tariffs expressed by companies as well as nations such as Canada, China, Japan, Mexico and Switzerland, besides the European Union. 'As reliable trading partners, the European Union and United States should strengthen their trade regarding aircraft and aircraft parts, rather than hinder it by imposing trade restrictions,' the EU wrote. It would consider its options 'to ensure a level playing field,' it added. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 10 per cent on nearly all airplane and parts imports. 'No country or region should attempt to support the development of its domestic aircraft manufacturing industry by suppressing foreign competitors,' the Chinese government wrote. Separately, U.S. planemaker Boeing cited a recent trade deal unveiled in May with Britain that ensures tariff-free treatment for airplanes and parts. Opinion: Carney was right to not retaliate against Trump's latest tariffs 'The United States should ensure duty-free treatment for commercial aircraft and their parts in any negotiated trade agreement, similar to its efforts with the United Kingdom,' Boeing told the Commerce Department in a filing. Mexico said in 2024 it exported US$1.45 billion in aircraft parts, just a tenth of the total, to the United States. The EU said it took U.S. exports of aircraft worth roughly US$12 billion, while exporting about $8 billion of aircraft to the U.S. In early May, the Commerce Department launched a 'Section 232' national security investigation into imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines and parts that could form the basis for even higher tariffs on such imports. Last week, Delta Air Lines and major trade groups warned of tariffs' impact on ticket prices, aviation safety and supply chains. 'Current U.S. tariffs on aviation are putting domestic production of commercial aircraft at risk,' Airbus Americas CEO Robin Hayes said in a filing. 'It is not realistic or sensible today to create a 100 per cent domestic supply chain in any country.' Boeing said it had been increasing U.S. content in its airplanes over the last decade and its newest airplanes, the 737 MAX 10 and 777X, would have 'more than 88 per cent domestically-sourced content.' The United Auto Workers union, which represents 10,000 aerospace workers, said it supports tariffs and domestic production quotas, adding that U.S. aerospace employment has fallen to 510,000 in 2024 from 850,000 in 1990. 'To safeguard the entire aerospace supply chain across the commercial and defense sectors, comprehensive tariffs and production quotas on several products are needed,' it said. JetBlue Airways opposed new tariffs, however, saying, 'Trade policy should reinforce, not destabilize, the proven systems that keep our aircraft flying safely and affordably.'