Relief for now – but Reform are breathing down Starmer's neck

Telegraph

06-06-2025

Few would have been surprised if the SNP had managed to hold onto the seat previously held by the respected and late MSP, Christine McKelvie.
Swinney, with his dull but reassuring bank manager persona, has steadied the nationalist ship after a couple of turbulent years during which Nicola Sturgeon resigned in the midst of a police investigation into party finances, her estranged husband was charged with embezzlement and Humza Yousaf, Sturgeon's successor, was forced out of office after barely a year in Bute
House.
Sarwar desperately needed his party to pull off a win in order to keep Scottish Labour's chances at next year's Holyrood elections alive. And that is what it's done.
The SNP, meanwhile, will be worried about what this result will mean for dozens of SNP seats which will now feel all the more vulnerable to a Labour revival. The memories of election night last July, when the nationalists lost 39 of its 48 seats – 36 of them directly to Labour – still haunt the party.
As for Reform, it shouldn't be overlooked that it came a respectable third with 26 per cent of the vote – just five per cent behind the winning score and only three per cent behind the SNP. Were it not for both the main parties' considerable advantage in
terms of organisation – both have years of local canvass records for the area and can rely on the efforts of seasoned organisers – Reform might have expected to do better. As it is, third place in Hamilton, Stonehouse and Larkhall makes life extremely
uncomfortable for all the other parties.
Labour and the SNP will lose much sleep between now and next May as they try to work out which of them will lose more support to Nigel Farage's party when the new Scottish parliament is elected.
Reform's presence could well transform the electoral map, even if the party itself doesn't pick up any first-past-the-post seats. It is in the proportional list part of the election where Reform is expected to do better, possibly at the expense of both the Greens and the Conservatives.
For new Scottish Tory leader, Russel Findlay, his party's fourth place with six per cent of the vote is confirmation that it simply cannot compete for power at Holyrood.
The voters of Lanarkshire have shown they are willing to flirt with a Right-wing party, but the Conservative brand remains too toxic for most Scots to contemplate.
It was a satisfying night for Reform, a worrying one for the SNP and a deeply disappointing one for the Scottish Conservatives.
As for Labour, its leader in Scotland may be happy, but it is his boss in Downing Street who will be even more relieved. For no one can doubt that the loss of a crucial by-election at this stage in the electoral cycle would have been laid at his door.