Who Will Get The Opportunity To Represent The SEC In The Championship?

Forbes

01-04-2025

The SEC Conference has become the heir apparent of college basketball of late, having a record-high number of schools make the dance.
Now, the two highest seeds in from the conference are set to square off with a trip to the National Championship on the line.
But will the record number of SEC teams qualifying for March Madness be significant if neither of these two powerhouse programs are able to cut down the nets in San Antonio?
While Duke and Houston are just as, if not more qualified to win it all, the one caveat Florida and Auburn have over them is their strength of schedule.
All four teams have similar advanced metrics and quadrants one and two, however the relentlessness of the SEC conference this season may make these two teams more qualified to turn around 48 hours after reaching the final game of the season and execute to their normal record.
However, the tournament has never been this topheavy since it has expanded to 64 teams, and the numbers back it up.
As shown by Matt Norlander on X.com, not only are these final four programs a combined 135-16 on the year, but they all rank within the top-10 according to KenPom's Net Rating.
So, while Florida and Auburn are below Duke and Houston according to the Net Rankings, could that be because winning in the SEC is sometimes less pretty? Let's look at both team's arguments for reaching the title game.
While Duke's Head Coach John Scheyer is already receiving his flowers for the job he has done in year three at the program, Florida's Todd Golden deserves to be discussed in the same light.
In just his third year at the head of the Gators, Golden transitioned the program from a below .500 team in year one, to a tournament team in year two, to a Final Four member before a true freshman could even become a senior on his roster.
The way he has done so is by creating an offensive juggernaut in the swamp, averaging 85.4 points per game, which is third-best in all of college basketball.
His offensive leaders, (Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin & Will Richard) all came to the university via the transfer portal, which showed the type of offensive profile Golden was looking for. Guards that can ball handle and score off the dribble in an efficient manner.
So, with Clayton Jr.(18.1 points per game on .557 eFG%), Martin (14.5 ppg on .550 eFG%) and Richard (13.3 ppg on .596 eFG%) all filling their role to perfection, the Gators now have a three-headed monster in the backcourt, with the duo of Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh down low.
Defensively, the Gators have yet to prove an ability to win a rock fight when their typical shots are not falling. However, only allowing 69.7 points per game, which due to their pace of play gives them a 93.0 Defensive Rating according to Kenpom.
With a 14-4 record in Quad One games, with all four of their losses coming in SEC play, Florida has proven the ability to consistently put up points outside of one outlier performance against Tennessee.
Amongst these Quad One wins was their biggest win of the regular season, as they took down top-ranked Auburn on the road on February 8th.
With 19 points from Clayton Jr. and 17 from Condon, the Gators snapped the 14-game winning streak for the Tigers just weeks before the Conference Championships.
Florida and Auburn were not scheduled to play each other again in the regular season, and their paths did not cross after Auburn was defeated by the Volunteers in the second round of the SEC Tournament.
The Gators on the other hand entered the tournament as the hottest power-five team in college basketball, going 14-1 in the 15 games that followed their upset over the Tigers, including an SEC Championship and Final Four berth.
So, as seen in their regular season matchup, Florida was unable to contain the offensive attack of Auburn, as Johni Broome posted a double-double and Miles Kelly scored 22.
Their offense was able to provide them a path to victory, which may be impacted based off the defensive look Bruce Pearl has in store for Florida.
For a coach like Bruce Pearl, who leads his Auburn Tigers into his sixth NCAA Tournament appearance and second Final Four appearance in 11 years, the fact that Florida won the initial matchup may be a disadvantage for Golden and his staff.
Pearl's ability to get the most out of his team, mixed with the intensity that the Tigers bring on a night-to-night basis will relish the opportunity to have a chip on their shoulders. Especially since March Madness was the first sign of must-win basketball the team had seen since the middle of the regular season.
After holding the AP #1 seed for more weeks than any other team this season, the Tigers seemingly secured a #1 seed in the tournament after their February victory against Alabama, who was #2 at the time.
That lack of important baseball to end the season, then an SEC tournament that would likely not negatively impact the team may have been the reason for their 1-3 stretch entering March. However, this may have been the perfect reset for Pearl's program, looking like the regular season juggernaut as soon as the calendar turned.
While the figure may pale in comparison to Florida's offensive metrics, Auburn also possesses one of the best scoring attacks in college basketball. Averaging 83.2 points per game, which is 12th-best in college basketball, the team is led by soon-to-be Wooden Award finalist Johni Broome, who finished the year averaging 18.7 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game.
Outside of the All-SEC big man, Pearl has five other scoring options that can perform on any given night.
Chad Baker-Mazara (12.2 ppg), Tahaan Pettiford (11.7 ppg), Miles Kelly (11.4 ppg), Denver Jones (10.9 ppg) and Chaney Johnson (9.2 ppg) can all score from the perimeter, allowing Broome to operate in the paint with minimal double teams, as Broome also averages 2.9 assists per game kicking it out of the post.
Defensively, the Tigers have the edge in terms of points allowed, with the 60th-best defensive rating in the NCAA.
Tigers fans will be actively listening for injury updates on Broome and Baker-Mazara, who both seemed to sustain injuries in their Elite Eight matchup against Michigan State.
However, health permitted, the Tigers have found themselves winning late in lower-scoring affairs, which could be the strategy to change the fates of their previous matchup.
Whether the final score resulted in the 50s or nearing double-digits, the Tigers have won Quad One games (19 to be exact) in all different forms.
As Pettiford is the only freshman on the team averaging 20 or more minutes per game, this team has been battle-tested before, and may have the late-game execution edge over the Gators.
However, with players like Broome and Pettiford averaging below NCAA average at the free throw line, Florida could use a similar strategy that worked against Texas Tech in the previous round, where the team intentionally fouled with over two minutes remaining, which helped aid their comeback.
So, while both of these teams have the capabilities to turn this game into 40 minutes of up-and-down scoring, the best strategy for the Tigers may be to keep the ball out of Florida's hands.
Regardless of how the game turns out, the matchup of Golden and Pearl in the SEC may become a marquee matchup to pay attention to as the years go on. And with a trip to the National Championship on the line, Saturday night could be the berth of a new rivalry in college basketball.