'Can't rule out strategic miscalculation': Pakistani general warns of escalation risk despite India-Pak troop drawdown

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Despite signs of de-escalation along the India-Pakistan border, with both sides beginning to reduce troops after their worst clashes in decades, a top Pakistani military general has warned that the risk of future escalation remains high read more
General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Pakistan's chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, speaks during an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit, in Singapore, May 30, 2025, in this screengrab from a video. Reuters
Despite signs of de-escalation along the India-Pakistan border, with both sides beginning to reduce troops after their worst clashes in decades, a top Pakistani military general has warned that the risk of future escalation remains high.
General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, who is in Singapore to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue forum, said while there was no move towards nuclear weapons during the conflict, it was a dangerous situation.
'Nothing happened this time, but you can't rule out any strategic miscalculation at any time, because when the crisis is on, the responses are different,' General Mirza said in an interview to Reuters, cautioning that while the immediate crisis may be easing, the underlying tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours remain dangerously volatile.
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He said that the risk of future escalation has grown, as the recent fighting extended beyond the disputed region of Kashmir, claimed in full by both countries but controlled in parts, into each country's mainland.
Mirza, Pakistan's chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said the two militaries had started the process of drawing down troop levels.
'We have almost come back to the pre-22nd April situation… we are approaching that, or we must have approached that by now,' said Mirza, the most senior Pakistani military official to speak publicly since the conflict.
According to Reuters, India's ministry of defence and the office of the Indian chief of defence staff did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the remarks by Mirza.
The latest round of hostilities between the long-time rivals was triggered by an April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead, most of them tourists.
New Delhi accused Pakistan-backed 'terrorists' of carrying out the assault, a claim Islamabad firmly denied.
In response, India launched missile strikes on May 7, targeting nine terrorist hideouts across the border. Pakistan retaliated with its own strikes, prompting both countries to amass additional troops along the frontier.
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Both sides used fighter jets, missiles, drones and artillery in four days of clashes, their worst fighting in decades, before a ceasefire was announced on May 10.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned Pakistan this month that New Delhi would target 'terrorist hideouts' across the border again if there were new attacks on India.
India and Pakistan have fought three major wars, two of them over Kashmir, and have been involved in numerous armed skirmishes over the decades.
New Delhi holds Islamabad responsible for terrorism in Kashmir that began in 1989 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives. Pakistan, however, insists it offers only moral, political, and diplomatic support to Kashmiris seeking self-determination.
'This (conflict) lowers the threshold between two countries who are contiguous nuclear powers…in the future, it will not be restricted to the disputed territory. It would come down to (the) whole of India and (the) whole of Pakistan,' Reuters quoted Mirza as saying.
'This is a very dangerous trend,' he added.
Reuters had earlier reported that the swift de-escalation of hostilities was partly the result of behind-the-scenes diplomacy involving the United States, India, and Pakistan, with Washington playing a key role in brokering peace.
However, India has rejected any suggestion of third-party involvement in the ceasefire, maintaining that all engagement with Pakistan must be strictly bilateral.
General Mirza cautioned, however, that international mediation may prove more difficult in future crises, citing the absence of formal crisis management mechanisms between the two countries.
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'The time window for the international community to intervene would now be very less, and I would say that damage and destruction may take place even before that time window is exploited by the international community,' he was quoted as saying.
Pakistan was open to dialogue, he added, but beyond a crisis hotline between the directors general of military operations and some hotlines at the tactical level on the border, there was no other communication between the two countries.
New Delhi has maintained a hard line on any possible rapprochement.
'If there are talks, it will only be on terrorism and PoK," Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Friday.
'If Pakistan is serious about talks, it should hand over terrorists…to India so that justice is served,' he added.
Mirza said there were no backchannel discussions, or informal talks, to ease tensions. He also said he had no plans to meet General Anil Chauhan, India's chief of defence staff, who is also in Singapore for the Shangri-La forum.
'These issues can only be resolved by dialogue and consultations, on the table. They cannot be resolved on the battlefield,' Mirza added.
With inputs from agencies