National Hurricane Center tracks Tropical Depression Two. Will it become Barry?

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18 hours ago

The National Hurricane Center was watching Tropical Depression Two in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday night, and while advisories have been issued forecasters don't believe this system will become a tropical cyclone.
The system has been tracked since June 26, first as a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center watching three tropical waves in the Atlantic.
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There's been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season. While in the short term no tropical development is expected by forecasters − partly due to a wall of Saharan dust blowing by Florida − that could change soon.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Barry.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 p.m., June 28.
At 8 p.m., the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 94.7 West.
The depression was moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday.
Location: About 210 miles east southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico and about 100 miles east northeast of Veracruz, Mexico
Moving: West-northwest at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding.
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon.
Tropical waves
Tropical wave 1: The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W, and extends southward from the western Cabo Verde Islands, moving west.
Tropical wave 2: An east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 50W from 13N southward, moving west at 12 to 17 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A well-defined tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is analyzed along 62W/63W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 12 to 17 mph.
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time.
However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend.
'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.'
'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home.
"There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern.
'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week."
'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said.
Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1.
"The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said.
Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season.
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea: AN-dree uh
Barry: BAIR-ree
Chantal: shahn-TAHL
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
"We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said.
'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July.
'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.'
'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas.
'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.'
'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.'
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Center tracks Tropical Depression near Mexico. See tracker