Who will avoid relegation from the Championship?

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17-04-2025

Plymouth striker Ryan Hardie, Luton striker Carlton Morris, Cardiff City striker Yousef Salech and Derby defender Matt Clarke and their team-mates are set for a fraught final two weeks of the season [Getty Images/Rex Features]
As the Championship season heads into the last four games, the battle to avoid relegation looks set to go down to the final day.
With eight teams still realistically in danger of the drop, BBC Sport looks at how the second tier relegation battle is shaping up and what chances statisticians Opta give each team of dropping down to League One.
[Opta]
24) Plymouth Argyle
How has it come to this?
Argyle only avoided relegation back to League One in their first season back at this level thanks to a final-day win last May.
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It was something of a surprise then when they turned to England and Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney in the summer, given his struggles in this division with Birmingham City.
Things started terribly with a 4-0 thrashing at Sheffield Wednesday on the opening day but a dramatic 3-2 win over promotion-chasing Sunderland on 14 September got them up and running.
They struggled badly away from Home Park though, including a 5-0 loss at fellow strugglers Cardiff and a 6-1 demolition at Norwich, and Rooney left by mutual consent on 31 December with the Pilgrims bottom.
Former Cercle Brugge boss Miron Muslic arrived in January and oversaw their first win in 16 league games with a 2-1 victory over West Brom.
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A famous FA Cup success over Premier League leaders Liverpool boosted hopes and morale further but a run of five matches without victory left things looking bleak.
However, Saturday's 2-1 comeback at home to promotion-chasing Sheffield United was a third win in six and they are once again in contention.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Middlesbrough (Away)
Monday, 21 April - Coventry City (Home)
Saturday, 26 April - Preston (A)
Saturday, 3 May - Leeds United (H)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 95.48%
'Argyle have a knack of doing well in tough games'
Every time Plymouth appear to be dead and buried, they go and do something to keep Pilgrims fans believing they might just claw their way out of the relegation mire.
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There is no doubt Argyle's run-in is challenging, but if they have taught us anything in the past few weeks, it's that they seem to have a knack of doing well in the tough games and losing the easier-looking ones.
So maybe, just maybe, they can get out of trouble.
Argyle managed to stay up on the last day of last season - you feel that if they do survive this time around, it may well be on the final day again.
Read the full analysis on Plymouth's Championship survival hopes.
Plymouth defender Victor Palsson celebrates after his side's vital 2-1 win over promotion-chasing Sheffield United on Saturday [Rex Features]
23) Luton Town
How has it come to this?
After putting up a creditable fight in the Premier League last season, few Hatters fans would have thought this season would have seen them battling relegation once again.
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Things didn't start well though when they were beaten 4-1 at home by fellow relegated side Burnley on the opening weekend and they have not been above 15th all season.
Boss Rob Edwards was given time to turn things around having led them to the top flight for the first time in over 30 years in 2023 but he eventually left in January after a run of four successive losses.
Matt Bloomfield came in from Wycombe and although they have lost just six of his 16 games in charge they have not been out of the relegation zone since 18 January.
They slipped to a damaging 1-0 home reverse by mid-table Blackburn on Saturday and Friday's trip to fellow strugglers Derby now looks pivotal before three games against play-off chasers.
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The stats are not in their favour, with Opta giving them a near 90% chance of becoming the first team since Sunderland in 2017 to suffer successive relegations from the Premier League to League One.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Derby County (A)
Monday, 21 April - Bristol City (H)
Saturday, 26 April - Coventry (H)
Saturday, 3 May - West Bromwich Albion (A)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 88.64%
'Not a lot of optimism Luton can survive'
There may be four games to go but, in truth, the inquest is already under way for many Luton fans.
With the remaining home games being against play-off chasing Bristol City and Coventry, there is not a lot of optimism around.
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Supporters are already questioning why there wasn't more recruitment last summer and whether the club kept faith with Edwards for too long.
Luton stayed in the Championship on the last day in 2020. To do so again would be a greater escape.
Read the full analysis on Luton's Championship survival hopes.
22) Cardiff City
How has it come to this?
It's been a season of struggle in South Wales after a dismal start.
Erol Bulut was sacked on 22 September after the Bluebirds picked up just one point and scored one goal in their opening six league games for their worst opening to a campaign in 94 years.
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Coach Omer Riza took over as caretaker before being given the job until the end of the season in December.
A 7-0 thumping at leaders Leeds in early February aside, they have been competitive in most games - their 18 defeats is the same number as Blackburn, who are 10th.
However, they've won a joint division low of nine games all season and Saturday's late 1-0 home defeat by fellow strugglers Stoke will have stung.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Sheffield United (A)
Monday, 21 April - Oxford United (H)
Saturday, 26 April - West Brom (H)
Saturday, 3 May - Norwich City (A)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 68.88%
'This might be one crisis too far'
It's been 22 years since Cardiff City last played in the third tier but, after two narrow escapes in the previous three seasons, there's a growing sense around the club that this might be one crisis too far.
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Their fate is now out of their own hands and the odds are stacked against the Bluebirds.
Riza has been under pressure for months but, with time running out, club owner Vincent Tan is thought to be reluctant to make a second managerial change of the season.
Even if Riza does leave, though, many believe Cardiff's most significant issues lie with Tan and the board, who have been the subject of angry fan protests.
All is not lost quite yet but, having played with fire for a number of years now, Cardiff's luck might be about to finally run out.
Read the full analysis on Cardiff's Championship survival hopes.
Cardiff City have won just twice since a 2-1 victory over fellow strugglers Derby on 25 January [Getty Images]
21) Derby County
How has it come to this?
Three wins from their first five league games marked a very solid start after promotion back to the Championship last season.
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Paul Warne's men looked set fair for a season of mid-table consolidation after a 2-1 home win over West Brom on Boxing Day left them on 27 points from their opening 23 games of the season.
The wheels then totally fell off.
A run of seven successive league losses cost Warne his job and saw them tumble down into the bottom three.
Former midfielder John Eustace was recruited from Blackburn but saw his new side hammered 4-0 at QPR in his first game on 14 February.
They dropped to the bottom of the table with a 1-0 defeat at Middlesbrough on 1 March but from nowhere then won their subsequent four matches to climb up to 20th.
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Things would have looked a lot better but for Portsmouth's injury-time leveller on Saturday but their fate is in their own hands and their final four games includes meetings with three relegation rivals.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Luton (H)
Monday, 21 April - West Brom (A)
Saturday, 26 April - Hull City (A)
Saturday, 3 May - Stoke City (H)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 29.16%
'The job is far from done despite brilliant work'
As they get ready for a season-defining Easter weekend, there is no bigger game than Luton this Friday for the Rams, with many comparing it to the importance of last season's promotion-shaping win at home against Bolton Wanderers in League One.
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Derby have shown a resurgence since the arrival of Eustace, losing just one of their past seven games, but three points is what they'll need on Friday lunchtime to put some daylight between themselves and the Hatters.
This Derby team under Eustace has developed a steely structure that has been able to keep the club heading in the right direction, but the job is far from done despite their brilliant work to turn this around.
Read the full analysis on Derby's Championship survival hopes.
20) Hull City
How has it come to this?
Despite only just missing out on a play-off place last season, owner Acun Ilicali decided to sack boss Liam Rosenior last May and brought in Tim Walter as his successor.
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It would be an understatement to say it didn't work out.
Walter's tactics didn't work and nor, unsurprisingly, did an offer to meet up with disgruntled fans.
The German was sacked on 27 November, one day after a 2-0 defeat by Sheffield Wednesday and less than 24 hours after Ilicali had said he would give the German more time regardless of their result against the Owls.
Ruben Selles arrived from financially-troubled Reading and helped them end a 13-match wait for a league win with a 2-1 home success over Swansea on 21 December.
The Tigers have been a real Jekyll and Hyde outfit all season. They have won a division low four times in front of their own supporters all season, while only seven teams have taken more points away from home.
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What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Swansea (A)
Monday, 21 April - Preston (H)
Saturday, 26 April - Derby (H)
Saturday, 3 May - Portsmouth (A)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 6.80%
'Cautious optimism Hull will just about survive'
Consistently inconsistent is the best way to describe a side who haven't won back-to-back games since October under then-head coach Tim Walter, so attempting to predict how Hull City will finish is like trying to plait fog.
Depending on what time of day you ask Tigers fans, I sense there's a cautious optimism that they will be OK and will just… emphasis on just… survive - if not from their own doing but what others may not do.
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However, they shouldn't be leaving anything to chance, although I don't believe anybody inside the inner sanctum of the club will be doing that.
Read the full analysis on Hull's Championship survival hopes.
19) Portsmouth
How has it come to this?
Promoted back to the Championship after 12 years away as League One winners last season, it took Pompey some time to get going this campaign... well, quite some time in fact.
They claimed their first win at the 10th time of asking with a 2-1 victory at Queens Park Rangers.
That success in London has been one of just two away wins to date, the second worst road record in the league.
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Despite their travails Pompey are the only team in the bottom eight of the Championship not to have changed manager this season.
John Mousinho has seen his men claim 10 wins at Fratton Park and, four points clear with four games left to play, one more might well be enough to secure a second season of Championship football.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Norwich (A)
Monday, 21 April - Watford (H)
Saturday, 26 April - Sheffield Wednesday (A)
Saturday, 3 May - Hull City (H)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 5.58%
Hull City and Portsmouth played out a 1-1 draw in the first meeting between the two this season in November and meet on the final day when both will be hoping to have survival secured [Rex Features]
'Staying up would mark a good season for Pompey'
If Portsmouth do stay up, it will be almost entirely down to their results at Fratton Park.
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Back in November when Pompey were rooted to the bottom of the table, they would have bitten your arm off to be in this position.
A few struggles and some unfortunate results have led to a couple of jitters but the Blues should have enough to see the job through.
The sole objective all season has been staying up - 21st or higher marks a good first season back in the second tier.
Read the full analysis on Portsmouth's Championship survival hopes.
18) Stoke City
How has it come to this?
The only team in the Championship to have changed manager twice this season, this has been a lacklustre campaign for the Potters.
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Steven Schumacher was sacked in September after just nine months in charge and replaced by former Huddersfield and Norwich assistant Narcis Pelach.
Three months and three wins from 19 games later and the Catalonian was also gone.
Mark Robins came in as his replacement in January and the experienced head has steadied the ship.
Saturday's late 1-0 win at fellow strugglers Cardiff was huge and, unbeaten in four, they are now well placed to avoid slipping into the third tier for the first time since 2002.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
Monday, 21 April - Leeds United (A)
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Friday, 25 April - Sheffield United (H)
Saturday, 3 May - Derby (A)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 3.08%
'Potters will be confident of staying up'
Mark Robins has helped to keep Stoke City out of the relegation zone since taking over in January [Getty Images]
Since Robins joined at the turn of the year, improvement has come steadily in increments and coincided with the return to fitness of a number of key players.
The past eight games have yielded 12 points, better performances and just two defeats at Coventry and Millwall that probably could have gone another way.
The Potters will be confident they can get a positive result at home to Sheffield Wednesday where a win would take them up to 50 points and almost certainly guarantee a place in the second tier for next season.
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Even a draw would leave the teams below them with an awful lot to do to overhaul them.
Read the full analysis on Stoke's Championship survival hopes.
17) Oxford United
How has it come to this?
Promoted back to this level for the first time this century thanks to a play-off final win over Bolton, the U's made a good start with three wins in their first five league games.
They then won just one of their following 16 games as reality bit but it was still something of a surprise when boss, and Yellows fan, Des Buckingham was sacked in December.
Experienced Championship campaigner Gary Rowett came in as his replacement and initially oversaw a brilliant turnaround in fortunes.
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A run of five wins and four draws from his first nine league games had United looking set to cruise to a mid-table finish.
A damaging run of nine without victory (the first two games of which were the final two of the initial unbeaten run) had dragged them right back into trouble but 1-0 wins at home to Watford and Sheffield United, and at Sheffield Wednesday means they are now six points clear of trouble and should be fine.
What's left?
Friday, 18 April - Leeds (H)
Monday, 21 April - Cardiff (A)
Saturday, 26 April - Sunderland (H)
Saturday, 3 May - Swansea City (A)
Opta Analyst chances of being relegated: 2.32%
'Oxford are on the brink of survival'
Some Oxford fans may privately be annoyed that I've even been asked to write this (there's no mention of Preston or QPR who have only a point or two more than United), but you would struggle to find one who would admit it.
The U's success - and staying up would be a big achievement - has been built on taking nothing for granted. It was key when they picked up valuable wins in the early weeks of the season and remains true at the end.
Rowett has done exactly what he was recruited to do.
His side are on the brink of confirming survival and even allowing themselves a moment of satisfaction before the inevitable "second-season syndrome" worries kick in.
It would be a nice problem to have.
Read the full analysis on Oxford's Championship survival hopes.