The great gamble: Israel's 'pre-emptive' strike on Iran
Israel's "pre-emptive" strike on Iran is one of the greatest foreign policy gambles of modern times.
The audacious attacks by Benjamin Netanyahu are an attempt to stop Iran's nuclear programme in its tracks - but they also may hasten it.
Iran now has very little to lose by re-doubling its efforts, deep below the mountains of Fordow, to enrich enough uranium to acquire a viable nuclear bomb - the so-called "breakout point".
That would require uranium of 90% purity, and in tunnels half a mile from the surface, Iran has thousands of centrifuges poised to spin into action.
Iran has held off going above 60% enrichment so far and was in the middle of negotiating a new agreement with the United States.
President Trump has repeatedly criticised the old one (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limited enrichment to 3.67%, brokered under the Obama administration, boasting he could get a much better deal. Now that diplomatic track lies in tatters.
What is alarming is not only the way this has shredded international law and sets a dangerous precedent for any future negotiations, but the risk it may also actually propel Iran towards the bomb. It's also notable that Trump has appeared impotent to stop Israel's unilateral action.
A new era of impunity appears to be emerging from this chaos, as Netanyahu seeks to neuter Iran's nuclear ambitions once and for all, with or without the consent of the White House.
The problem for Israel, and the rest of the world, is that while the Iranian nuclear programme may have been set back, destroying it forever may be impossible, without either US involvement, including powerful American B2 bombers or achieving Iranian regime change.
Perhaps, because of that difficult battlefield assessment, Netanyahu is trying both to persuade the US of the case for American involvement, while simultaneously talking about removing theocracy from Iran.
Suddenly, this is an existential war for both sides, and one America may find it difficult to "sit out".
Israel sees Iran's progress towards becoming a nuclear power as a direct threat, because Iran has repeatedly talked about wiping it off the map.
Iran, on the other hand, sees Israel's attack not just as an attempt to destroy key facilities, but as an effort to overthrow the entire Iranian system of government.
Both are now locked in a deadly struggle, with the possible outcomes likely to reshape the region. If Iran does rush to get the bomb, Saudi Arabia will surely follow.
However, if the Iranian regime is overthrown, why wouldn't despotic regimes around the world conclude that a nuclear deterrent isn't just aspirational, it's now critical?
Sudan, Venezuela, and Turkey might all suddenly rush to do the same.
The dominoes of world politics are falling with alarming speed, and no one yet knows where this will end.
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South Wales Argus
29 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Israel's military claims ‘aerial superiority' over Iran's capital
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Leader Live
29 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Israel's military claims ‘aerial superiority' over Iran's capital
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STV News
38 minutes ago
- STV News
Iran launches new wave of strikes against Israel as conflict intensifies
Iran launched a new wave of strikes in the early hours of Monday, triggering air raid sirens across Israel as authorities reported at least four had been killed and dozens wounded. Tehran said it had launched 100 missiles and promised further strikes against Israel on the fourth day of the conflict between the two nations, which shows no sign of slowing down. In response to the strikes, the defence minister of Israel, Israel Katz, posted on X: 'Residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon.' The attacks raised Israel's total death toll to at least 18, and in response, the Israeli military said fighter jets had struck ten command centres in Tehran belonging to Iran's Quds Force, an elite arm of its Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran. The Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv. / Credit: AP On Sunday evening, Israel confirmed it had also killed the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) intelligence unit, Mohammad Kazemi, along with two other generals. Israel has killed numerous high-ranking Iranian military officials in recent days as a key part of its plan to weaken Tehran's ability to make a nuclear weapon. In an indication of how far Israel was prepared to go in its latest offensive, a US official told the Associated Press that President Donald Trump in recent days vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Firefighters work to extinguish a blaze after a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv. / Credit: AP The Israeli Magen David Adom (MDA) emergency service reported on Monday that two women and two men – all in their 70s – were killed in the wave of missile attacks that struck four sites in central Israel. 'We clearly see that our civilians are being targeted,' said Israeli police spokesman Dean Elsdunne outside the bombed-out building in Petah Tikva. 'And this is just one scene, we have other sites like this near the coast, in the south.' The MDA added that paramedics had evacuated another 87 wounded people to hospitals, including a 30-year-old woman in serious condition, while rescuers were still searching for residents trapped beneath the rubble of their homes. 'When we arrived at the scene of the rocket strike, we saw massive destruction,' said Dr Gal Rosen, a paramedic with MDA who said he had rescued a four-day-old baby as fires blazed from the building. The strikes on Monday also caused minor damage to the US Consulate in Tel Aviv, with the ambassador saying the building would remain closed for the rest of the day as a result. During an earlier barrage of Iranian missiles on central Israel on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran will stop its strikes if Israel does the same. The Iranian Health Ministry said late on Sunday that 224 people have been killed since Israel's attacks began. But after a day of intensive Israeli aerial attacks that extended targets beyond military installations to hit oil refineries and government buildings, the Revolutionary Guard struck a hard line on Monday, vowing that further rounds of strikes would be 'more forceful, severe, precise and destructive than previous ones.' The ongoing conflict is likely to dominate the G7 being held in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with it being understood that Donald Trump had given his tacit approval for Israel to launch the strikes against Iran. The other members of the group have all urged caution, but Europe and North America have mostly backed Israel's justification for its actions. Israel argues that its assault on Iran's top military leaders, uranium enrichment sites and nuclear scientists was necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran has always insisted its nuclear programme is peaceful, and the US and others have assessed that Tehran has not pursued a nuclear weapon since 2003. But Iran has enriched ever-larger stockpiles of uranium to near weapons-grade levels in recent years and was believed to have the capacity to develop multiple weapons within months if it chose to do so. EU foreign ministers are also due to meet at an emergency summit on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing conflict. Get all the latest news from around the country Follow STV News Scan the QR code on your mobile device for all the latest news from around the country
