Cannabis or coal: shifting Senate a recipe for surprise

West Australian

30-04-2025

Weed smokers, anti-wokers and coal cokers could all have a seat at one of the nation's top tables as the Senate serves up a menu of unpredictable combinations.
As pundits posit over who will form government in the lower house, battle lines in the upper house could ultimately determine which policies become a reality.
More than half of the Senate is up for re-election on Saturday: six of the 12 senators in each state and two in each the ACT and Northern Territory.
The staggered terms bake in at least 12 senators for Labor, 14 for the coalition, five for the Greens and five others, who will serve with the 40 who triumph after the weekend vote.
The magic number to control the Senate is 39.
Senate races are split into two main lanes of three progressive and three conservative seats, election analyst Ben Raue said.
Mr Raue, who runs the Tallyroom election analysis website, predicts the Greens will keep their single Senate seat up for re-election in each state.
Right-wing minor parties such as One Nation and mining magnate Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots have the greatest shot in states where the coalition vote is too low for a third seat but the progressive vote isn't high enough for four.
"The only other plausible party that can win a seat is Legalise Cannabis, they have a decent brand name and primary vote," Mr Raue told AAP.
Victoria is the state to watch for the right-wing vote because it is where Mr Palmer's former United Australia Party won its only seat in 2022.
The field in Queensland was already crowded, with either One Nation's Malcolm Roberts or LNP defector Gerard Rennick and his People First party most likely to claim the third conservative seat, the analyst said.
Senator Rennick conceded it would be hard for him to retain his seat but said there needed to be a minor-party alternative to the coalition, which lacked conviction to uphold conservative values.
"Our ground game is as good as their ground game but One Nation has a better-known brand for all those booths you can't get to," he told AAP.
The Liberals are in danger of losing their third seat in South Australia or Western Australia to a minor party such as One Nation.
Firebrand senator Jacqui Lambie is likely to retain her Tasmanian seat, although that wasn't guaranteed, Mr Raue said.
South Australian Jacqui Lambie Network candidate Rex Patrick said he had a good chance at returning to the Senate, but the minor party didn't have the capacity to poll so the results wouldn't be known until election day.
"I don't think anyone could give an accurate prediction of the outcome," he said.
There was a chance Labor could take a third seat in Victoria or WA or a second in Queensland if there was a big enough bump in its vote, Mr Raue said.
But one party insider conceded that was unlikely and the last Senate seat would be a scrap between the coalition and a minor party.