Netanyahu has a chance to end Gaza war and cement his power

Telegraph

6 hours ago

As Tel Aviv emerged from the bomb shelters on Tuesday morning, there was a brief surge of hope – but it didn't last long.
'It's over,' said a well-to-do woman who had moved from her 16th-floor apartment a few miles away to the hotel where I am staying, for the sanctuary of its safe room.
The ceasefire meant life could return to normal, she said. She would return to her own apartment and start to travel again.
'Athens – it has the most beautiful hotel rooftops, with amazing wine,' she said.
We exchanged numbers and said we'd text each other if parties broke out later in the day. After 12 intense days of fighting, we agreed the ceasefire was likely to be celebrated.
You could call us – and Donald Trump – naive and you would be right, but it felt like a moment that Benjamin Netanyahu might exploit to wrap things up and run again.
Yes, four civilians had just been killed in Be'er Sheva and others in Tehran, but Mr Netanyahu's Israel was on the front foot. Hamas has been all but wiped out militarily, ditto Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Most important of all, Iran – the head of the octopus – has been crippled.
What better time, then, for the Israeli prime minister – known as 'Mr Iran' – to announce an end to the war in Gaza and bring the remaining 50 hostages home; to make the most of the 'Bibi bounce' and seek to renew his mandate with fresh elections?
'The 12-day war is over, with amazing military achievements and painful costs to the Israeli home front,' said Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is held hostage in Gaza.
He added: 'A general agreement to bring all the hostages home and end the [Gaza] war is the need of the hour – it is the Israeli interest.'
This sentiment is reflected nationally. Ever since Israel became directly involved in combatting Iran last April, Mr Netanyahu's popularity has been recovering, says Dahlia Scheindlin, the Israeli political analyst.
A recent poll by Agam Labs, a research group affiliated with Hebrew University, found that 70 per cent of the population in Israel (Jews and Arabs combined) supported Israel's attack on Iranian targets on June 13. Yet 75 per cent preferred to end the war in Gaza in exchange for the release of all hostages held by Hamas.
'For six months after Oct 7, neither the popularity of the governing coalition parties, nor Mr Netanyahu's suitability to be prime minister, seemed redeemable in the eyes of the Israeli public,' wrote Ms Scheindlin in Haaretz, the Left-leaning Israeli newspaper, last week.
She continued: 'Then Iran and Israel had their first-ever direct military confrontation – and Israelis viewed the outcome as a win. The combination bolstered Netanyahu's recovery.'
To be clear, there is no certainty that Mr Netanyahu would win if he called an election.
There are reports he and his inner circle are weighing up snap elections in light of his attack on Iran, according to Channel 12. He does not have to go to the polls until October next year if he so chooses.
But what he must decide soon is how best to consolidate his Iran advantage and minimise the nightmare that is Gaza – what Ms Scheindlin describes as Israel's 'dirty war'.
No one knows how to surf storm waves better than Mr Netanyahu, but it has felt in the past 48 hours since the strike on Fordow that an exit plan was coming together.
Yesterday, he promised there would be no 'war of attrition' with Iran (a widespread fear here), and that the war in Gaza might be nearing a conclusion.
'Peace through strength,' he said on the night of the US strikes. 'First comes strength, then comes peace.'
But in wrapping the war up, he faces two big obstacles.
First, the military establishment here is not convinced Iran has lost all its nuclear capability.
That sentiment was backed up by a preliminary classified US report that said the American bombing did not collapse Iran's underground buildings.
US officials told the New York Times the strikes had only set back Iran's nuclear programme by a few months and Iran could still make a bomb within half a year.
Second, Mr Netanyahu's Right-wing coalition partners would not be happy with any deal in Gaza short of its full annexation.
It was no doubt the former obstacle the prime minister had in mind last night when, just hours after a ceasefire deadline had been agreed with Mr Trump, he ordered the air force to make the most of the last few hours and launch one of the biggest bombing raids yet on Iran.
'They don't know what the f--- they're doing!'
To be fair, fighting almost always accelerates as ceasefire deadlines loom, but Mr Trump – a war romantic – did not see it that way, much less so the bombing that went beyond it.
Losing his temper with both parties on the White House lawn, he raged: 'Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen.
'I'm not happy with Israel… I'm not happy with Iran either. But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning, because of one rocket that didn't land.'
'You know what? We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f--- they're doing!'
Mr Netanyahu quickly attempted a reverse ferret, calling his fighter jets to return, ordering an outright ban on any of his ministers talking to the media, and having his office issue a statement suggesting his early morning call with the president had been cordial.
'President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel,' it read.
The trouble with all this as regards a triumphant end to the war and a dash for the polls (if indeed that was ever planned), is that it is no way to start.
As Israelis never tire of saying, this is a place that demands strength of its leaders, and Bibi has been very publicly slapped down.
By evening, the mood here was once again muted, and I suspect my friend with the apartment will be back in the hotel, close to a bomb shelter this evening. Certainly there have been no texts about celebrations.
It seems that Mr Netanyahu has squandered another opportunity to bring this near 19-month conflict to an end. This time, however, it seems more by mistake than design.