March Madness Most Outstanding Player odds, picks before Final Four: Cooper Flagg is the one to beat

New York Times

03-04-2025

The Most Outstanding Player award appears to be Cooper Flagg's to lose. At nearly-even +105 odds to win it, Flagg is also the presumptive national player of the year and likely No. 1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft.
If Duke wins — and the Blue Devils are -110 on BetMGM to claim the title — it's hard to imagine anyone else getting the honor.
Advertisement
Of course, it's possible, though unlikely, that a player on a losing team takes home the MOP crown.
In men's tournament history, a player on a non-title squad has won Most Outstanding Player just 11 times. Four of those times, the player was on a team that didn't even make the championship game: Hal Lear of third-place Temple in 1956, Art Heyman of third-place Duke in 1963, Bill Bradley of third-place Princeton in 1965 and Jerry Chambers of fourth(!)-place Utah in 1966.
Howard Porter is the lone player whose MOP award, with Villanova in 1971, was vacated because of an eligibility issue. Villanova was the runner-up to UCLA that year, so he would be the 12th on the list of non-winning MOPs if his award stood.
Houston's Akeem Olajuwon (later changed to Hakeem) was the most recent player to win MOP on the losing squad — way back in 1983.
Fun fact: In the history of the women's tournament, only one player has ever received MOP honors without being on the championship team. That player? None other than Dawn Staley. Staley was named Most Outstanding Player in 1991 when she took her Virginia Cavaliers to the championship game, where they lost to Tennessee. This year, it took sportsbooks longer to release odds for the women's MOP than the men's. But on Thursday, BetMGM posted Paige Bueckers as the -150 favorite, well ahead of the second and third favorites, South Carolina's Chloe Kitts (+850) and Texas' Madison Booker (+900).
On the men's side, Flagg is, and has been, the betting favorite for Most Outstanding Player. The next on the odds board is Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. (+375) and Auburn's Johni Broome (+700). Two Houston players are next, LJ Cryer (+1000) and Milos Uzan (+1200), and then it's back to Duke with Kon Knueppel (+2000).
We rounded up a few staff picks before the men's Final Four tips. But first, here is the full odds board from BetMGM.
Dan Santaromita: Cooper Flagg (+105). Before the tournament, I picked Auburn, but Duke has looked the most impressive, and Flagg has shown why NBA teams are tripping over each other to get him. He's the best player on the best team. Keep it simple.
Advertisement
Jess Bryant: Cooper Flagg (+105). The way I see it, if Duke beats Houston, Flagg wins over Johni Broome and Walter Clayton Jr. The most likely scenario (and the sportsbooks have it this way) is that Duke and Florida meet in the Finals, putting Clayton and Flagg head-to-head for the award. When Flagg's on the court, the prolific freshman and assumed first pick in the NBA draft is the best player there. He's a generational talent, and that's not true of anyone else in the running for the award. His lowest scoring total (14) came against Mount St. Mary's when he only played 22 minutes. Against Arizona in the Sweet 16, he put up 30 points, six rebounds, seven assists, a steal, three blocks and one turnover in 37 minutes. Every team that plays Duke knows they have to contain Flagg, and they can't. Auburn or Florida won't be able to handle him either, and Flagg will be the unanimous winner of the Most Outstanding Player award.
Brandon Funston: Walter Clayton Jr. (+375). As Florida's floor general, Clayton is the straw that stirs the Gatorade. He's the leading scorer in the tourney heading into the Final Four, and he's delivered defining clutch moments — like scoring 13 points down the stretch in the Elite Eight against Texas Tech to dig Florida out of a double-digit deficit. I have Florida winning it all, and if that comes to fruition, Clayton is the obvious MOP pick.
Hannah Vanbiber: LJ Cryer (+1000). I like to make one bet with my head and one bet with my heart. Cooper Flagg is the smart bet here, and most of us were on Flagg's odds when they opened at 3-to-1. But with my heart: I'm rooting for Houston and would love to see LJ Cryer get the award. In the words of The Athletic's Lindsay Schnell, 'Cryer might be 6-1, but all he does is win and hit big shots. He is the best 3-point shooter in San Antonio, connecting on 41.85 percent of his attempts.' He's absolutely a long shot, but in a one-and-done tournament, anything is possible!
Advertisement
Mike Hume: Johni Broome (+700). Walter Clayton Jr. (+375). I'm tempted to take Johni Broome here at +700 (as of Wednesday afternoon) for the value. After going full Willis Reed and returning to the Tigers' Elite Eight win after injuries to his left leg and right elbow, there's a narrative factor that would make sports writers swoon. Given that they comprise the voting panel for the award (alongside sportscasters), I have no problem seeing how that could happen. However, Auburn would need to get by Florida first, and the Tigers lost by 9 (at home) to the Gators in their only meeting this season. If Broome is at all limited by being banged-up (at least shoots left-handed), I don't see Auburn prevailing. Still, Broome is my 'sportswriter would kill to write this story' pick.
But my head favors Florida's Walter Clayton at +375. He provides the best combination of team talent and a player who has been the clear alpha during this tournament run.
Vik Chokshi: Walter Clayton Jr. (+375). I'm absolutely in love with Walter Clayton Jr. right now! He's giving me Steph Curry at Davidson vibes at multiple points during this tournament, and especially after his late-game heroics in the Elite Eight. I also love how he started his college career as a 0-star recruit. What a player! What a story!
This kid is so much fun to watch! https://t.co/NOFM5hajxE
— Vik Chokshi (@docksquad33) March 30, 2025
I picked Florida to win it all before the tournament began, and I'm sticking with it here, despite Duke playing like a well-oiled machine right now. This is also a way to get a little more bang for your buck, as Florida currently sits at +300 to win the title. If the Gators cut down the nets, Clayton will be nearly guaranteed the MOP hardware, so you'd win a couple more bucks at +375. Hey, every dollar counts when it comes to betting!
If you are into long-shot bets, take a look at LJ Cryer at +1000. The Athletic's Joe Rexrode made a nice case for Houston potentially being Duke's kryptonite. If the Cougars upset the Blue Devils, Cryer's MOP odds will shift drastically.
(Photo of Cooper Flagg: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)