Temperatures in Britain Could Set Records This Week

New York Times

30-04-2025

Britons have basked in a burst of summerlike weather this week as temperatures have surged beyond the seasonal average — and they may soon break records. Forecasters say Thursday may be Britain's warmest May 1, with highs expected to reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
The heat has been driven by two key factors: a large area of high pressure that has settled over Britain, causing descending air that warms as it sinks, and continuous sunshine, fueling daytime heating.
Aidan McGivern, a meteorologist at the Met Office, the nation's weather service, explained that this has been a familiar pattern over the last few months.
'The sun this time of the year is as strong as it is in August,' he said. 'We're not importing this air from anywhere else — this is homegrown warmth.'
London recorded Britain's highest temperature of the year on Monday, only for that to be beaten on Tuesday. The mercury is expected to rise further on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight temperatures have been above average too, with parts of Scotland experiencing their warmest April night on record.
The peak of the heat is expected on Thursday, just as voters in England head to the polls for local elections. Temperatures in southern England could reach 84.2 Fahrenheit (29 Celsius), which would be a record for May 1. The current record was set in 1990 in Lossiemouth, Scotland, which hit 81.3 Fahrenheit (27.4 Celsius).
If temperatures rise a bit higher, it could also become the earliest date in the year that Britain has hit 86 Fahrenheit (30 Celsius), based on Met Office data going back to 1860.
'The most likely temperature we're expecting is 29 Celsius,' Mr. McGivern said. 'But there's a possibility — a smaller chance of 10 to 20 percent — of 30 Celsius.'
Typical highs for Britain in late April are around 54 Fahrenheit in northern areas and 61 in the south. But despite the stretch of warm days, this may not officially count as a heat wave.
To qualify as a heat wave in Britain, temperatures must meet or exceed a specific threshold for at least three consecutive days. This threshold varies by region, from 77 Fahrenheit (25 Celsius) in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern and western England, to 82.4 Fahrenheit (28 Celsius) in southeast England.
While many will enjoy the summerlike weather, it's also bringing risks. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and the Scottish Wildfire Forum have issued warnings of a very high to extreme wildfire risk across parts of Scotland.
'There are currently vast areas that are tinder-dry and vulnerable, which provides all the ingredients for fire to take hold and spread,' said Michael Humphreys, an area commander with the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service.
Although spring wildfires are not unusual in Britain, 2025 has already been a record-breaking year for them. More than 29,200 hectares, or 72,000 acres, have burned so far this year, according to the Global Wildfire Information System, surpassing the previous record of 28,100 hectares in all of 2019.
Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to ease slightly starting on Friday, with highs likely dipping to around 77 Fahrenheit (25 Celsius), though the warm conditions could continue in the southeast of England. There's also a growing chance of thunderstorms, particularly in the south and southwest, late Thursday and into the night.
Over the weekend cooler conditions are likely to filter in from the north, bringing temperatures closer to normal.