After U.S. Strikes, Iran's Resolve to Build a Nuclear Weapon Could Harden

New York Times

3 days ago

The American strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran is likely to upend the country's thinking on whether to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Before the strikes, which hit early Sunday in Iran, U.S. intelligence had assessed that Iran had not made the decision to build a nuclear weapon, although its large stockpile of refined uranium put a bomb within its reach, senior officials said.
Even after more than a week of Israeli strikes on Iran, senior intelligence officials said that a 2003 religious ruling by Iran's supreme leader prohibiting the development of a nuclear weapon still held.
But U.S. intelligence determined that such a prohibition would likely change if the United States entered the war and struck Fordo, Iran's most secure nuclear facility, or if Israel killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The United States struck Fordo and two other nuclear sites, at Natanz and Isfahan.
'The sad truth here is that by striking Iran, the U.S. has made it much more likely that Iran will want to obtain nuclear weapons,' said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a restrained foreign policy.
She added: 'Even if the raids knocked out all of Iran's nuclear facilities — a big if — Iran will now be more motivated than ever to rebuild their capabilities and pursue not just uranium enrichment but actual weaponization.'
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