Ishiba faces political and diplomatic quandary ahead of WWII anniversary
As the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II draws closer, speculation has grown over the government's potential release of a statement regarding the war on Aug. 15 — the day when, in 1945, Emperor Hirohito announced Japan's unconditional surrender in the conflict.
Questioned in parliament about the objective of a potential statement Monday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba avoided making any clear commitment.
'Instead of talking about my understanding of history, we should think about the nature of civilian control, learn the lessons of the prewar era and consider what is possible under our Constitution,' Ishiba said.
Early media reports suggest Ishiba is expected to issue a message in a personal capacity, instead of an official statement formally rubber-stamped by the Cabinet. Previous administrations issued official statements in 1995, 2005, and 2015 to mark the 50th, 60th and 70th anniversaries of the capitulation, respectively.
Ishiba's uniquely reflective stance on the circumstances behind Japan's entry into the war had fueled speculation the government would follow the steps of previous administrations and put out a formal statement.
On a March visit to the island of Iwo Jima — the theater of a fierce battle between Japan and the United States during the war — Ishiba dwelled on the importance of making sure such atrocities never happen again, especially amid fading collective memory.
'I want to think about what we can do now and what we have to consider to establish peace firmly, and to make Japan's independence and peace secure,' Ishiba told reporters on the island.
Earlier this year, Ishiba was repeatedly questioned by reporters and opposition parties alike over the statement.
A self-proclaimed geek of all things history and military, as well as a prolific essayist on defense matters, Ishiba has spent a long time musing over the war in his almost 40-year career in politics.
He often quotes his political mentor, former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, who led the country from 1972 to 1974 and, in Ishiba's own words, once said: 'As long as the people who were in that war sit at the center of this country, we will be fine. But I'm afraid of the time when those people will be gone. That's why you all have to study a lot.'
The quote also appears in Ishiba's latest book — the title of which loosely translates as 'A Conservative Politician: My Policies, My Fate' — published last August shortly before he rose to the country's leadership. In the book, experience of the war was framed as the cornerstone of Tanaka the politician.
In the same volume, making an apparent reference to Japan's disastrous experience in the conflict, Ishiba meditates on how even nations can make mistakes and ultimately 'betray their people.'
In March in a parliamentary debate with Nippon Ishin no Kai's Naoki Inose, a writer-turned-politician, Ishiba sang the praises of one of Inose's most famous works, "Showa 16-nen Natsu no Haisen," or "The War Defeat of Summer 1941."
The essay is a nonfiction account of a group of elite bureaucrats who, in the summer of 1941, predicted Japan would have no chance in a potential war against the United States. Months later, Japan would attack Pearl Harbor, sparking a catastrophic clash with Washington.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya (left) and other attendees offer flowers during a ceremony to pay respects to unidentified war dead from World War II at the Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery in Tokyo on May 26. |
AFP-JIJI
'The value of that work is immortal,' Ishiba told Inose, adding he recommends it to anyone interested in security.
A closer look at the fruit of Ishiba's vast reflection over World War II suggests the prime minister has given more thought to its endogenous conditions, rather than the outward expansion of the now-defunct Imperial Japanese Army and the invasion of the Asian continent.
Still, opposition to any form of official reflection on the anniversary remains fierce.
Last month, in a meeting with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, LDP Upper House lawmaker Shigeharu Aoyama urged the government to refrain from issuing a statement.
'There's a country in Japan's proximity seeking to use reflection on the war to make diplomatic gains,' said Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Tsuneo Kitamura as he questioned Ishiba Monday, in a not-so-veiled reference to China. 'We should refrain from any action that would give this country an opportunity to take advantage of us.'
Kitamura went on to voice his support for the statement issued by the government of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the end of the war in 2015. That statement was ratified by Ishiba, himself, as a member of the Abe government.
The Abe statement refers to the apologies for the crimes committed by Japan in the war expressed by past governments, saying they'll remain 'unshakable into the future.'
However, it also famously said Japan should stop apologizing.
'We must not let our children, grandchildren and even further generations to come, who have nothing to do with that war, be predestined to apologize,' reads Abe's statement.
In a memoir published after his death, Abe justified this passage with the urgency to rectify what he called "the mistakes' of what is known as the Murayama statement — a document released by former socialist Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama in 1995, the 50th anniversary of the war.
'The issue with the Murayama Statement is that it apologizes on the premise that Japan committed a crime from a standpoint of good and evil. The state of the world at that time is completely overlooked,' Abe said in the memoir.
The Murayama Statement stands as a formal apology directed at Japan's neighbors. In the document, Murayama expressed his deep remorse for Japan's behavior in those years.
'Through its colonial rule and aggression, [Japan] caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries, particularly to those of Asian nations.'
As the first public expression of apologies over Japan's colonial past, the Murayama statement is seen as a milestone in Japan's history.
Thirty years later, and less than two months ahead of an Upper House election seen as unfavorable to his LDP, Ishiba faces a dilemma.
Any message could exacerbate the mistrust of the conservative wing of the LDP and further alienate right-leaning voters already wary of Ishiba.
Failure to issue a statement, on the other hand, could prompt reactions from Japan's neighbors, namely China and South Korea — where, despite a recent tone-down in rhetoric, Tuesday's presidential election frontrunner Lee Jae-myung is known for his anti-Japan positions .
Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner, is also pushing for a formal pronouncement, in light of the current state of peace in the world.
While difficult to predict at this stage, an electoral setback in the Upper House election could potentially force the prime minister to step down. Should that happen, it would fall to the next administration to address the issue — with the risk that any message may lose its significance or be diluted.
Speaking at a party convention in March, Ishiba said, 'Once again, we shall learn from history with humility and realize that our peace was built on the noble sacrifice of many people.'
Will Ishiba follow through on his reflection or, yet again, will he need to bow down to internal pressure?
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