How Israel's Air Force Compares as IDF Claims ‘Air Superiority' Over Iran

Miami Herald

7 hours ago

Israel has the upper hand in the skies over the Iranian capital of Tehran, the Israeli military has said, after Iran and Israel launched fresh strikes into the early hours of Monday.
"At this time, we can say that we have achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran's skies," Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, said on Monday.
Air superiority broadly refers to how freely one military can operate in the air without being significantly threatened by an enemy's air defenses and other aircraft.
Iran and Israel have been trading large-scale attacks since Israel launched its "preemptive" campaign to take out Tehran's nuclear, missile and other military sites early local time on Friday. Both sides have indicated they will continue to execute further drone and missile strikes, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's insistence they "make a deal."
Israel's operations to quickly establish air superiority-meaning they can use free-falling bombs rather than be limited to missiles launched far away from air defenses-have been "impressive," said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an influential British think tank.
Israel used its version of F-35 stealth jets to find air defense radars, while using other aircraft such as its F-16s and F-15s-equipped with long-range missiles and glide bombs-to destroy them, Bronk said.
William Freer, a research fellow for national security at the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy think tank, told Newsweek: "The Israeli Air Force-through a combination of excellent intelligence, stealth aircraft such as the F-35, and sophisticated strike weapons including air-launched ballistic missiles-has been able to establish air superiority in a matter of days; a remarkable feat."
This means Israel can fly other aircraft, such as F-15s and F-16s, "almost at will over Iran," Freer said. Flying at lower altitude can still be risky, he added.
Israel "has one of the most experienced and capable air forces of the world," said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with Dutch think tank, TNO. The Israeli air force has thoroughly trained personnel, modern aircraft, lots of support aircraft, as well as "ample stocks of advanced ammunition" and American logistics help, he told Newsweek.
The country has heavily invested in advanced technology, often in coordination with the U.S.
Israel's air force has a total of 340 operational aircraft of various types at its disposal, according to figures from the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which annually publishes a comprehensive rundown of the world's armed forces.
Israel's fleet of advanced, fifth-generation F-35i stealth fighter jets stands at 39, according to the IISS, along with 75 F-15s and just under an estimated 200 F-16s. Iranian state media claimed in recent days that Iran shot down up to three of Israel's F-35s, which Israel denied.
"With Iran being its primary opponent, Israeli planners have had decades to think about how they could deal with them and as we are seeing now, they are combining all the tools at their disposal," Mertens said.
Iran has "few technical answers to the combination of Israeli F-35i aircraft that can rapidly geolocate and conduct electronic warfare against SAMs [surface-to-air missile systems] while remaining hard to detect on radar, supported by F-16s and F-15s carrying precision-guided standoff weapons such as the Rampage air-launched ballistic missile," Bronk said.
Israel brought in its F-35i JETS nearly a decade ago to help get through air defenses, followed by the Rampage missile two years later "to increase its standoff distances from other aircraft," RUSI analysts commented on Monday.
Freer said that the Iranian air force "was already in a pitiful state before the current fighting began."
He added: "To all intents and purposes, Iran did not really have an air force."
Its aging collection comprises an estimated 265 aircraft fit for flying, including 138 fighters and more than 70 ground-attack aircraft, according to the IISS. Tehran's fleet is a mix of Soviet-era jets such as the MiG-29 and American-made aircraft dating back to before the 1979 revolution and the establishment of an Islamic republic in Iran.
Tehran has 15 F-5B jets, 54 of the F-5E and F-5F aircraft, plus a handful of F-14 Tomcats, the IISS figures indicate.
Iran's air force is "threadbare," Mertens said, adding: "I am very, very impressed that it has managed to keep its old American aircraft operational in the face of withering U.S. sanctions."
"But you cannot expect miracles from ancient aircraft, for in the air domain superior technology gives an overwhelming advantage," Mertens said.
"Iran's air force is a shadow of what it had been in the days of the Shah."
Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown in 1979 and died in 1980. His eldest son, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who lives in exile, has called for an end to the regime headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since the start of Israel's strikes last week.
The poor state of Iran's air force led it to rely almost exclusively on ground-based systems to both launch and intercept attacks, and that is where a second mission helped to secure air superiority.
Reports from Israel say the country's notorious Mossad spy agency built a hidden drone base inside Iranian territory. The uncrewed vehicles were then used to attack ballistic missile launchers. Israel reportedly smuggled weapons into Iran that then took out air defenses-paving the way for Israeli warplanes-while commandos targeted anti-aircraft sites in central Iran.
Israel's success in its opening strikes "builds on and almost certainly exploited the damage already done" to vital Iranian long-range air defenses last fall, Bronk said.
Iran launched two major attacks on Israel in 2024, the first in April when Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones in its first ever direct attack on Israel from its soil. A second aerial barrage headed for Israel in October, 2024.
Israel targeted part of a Russian-made S-300 air defense system around the central Iranian city of Isfahan in April. Wider attacks in October then destroyed the remaining S-300s at Iran's disposal, Israel said.
This left Iran "vulnerable" to additional strikes and to Israeli F-35s, said Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at the Atlantic Council. It will be unable to replace these losses in the short-term, he told Newsweek.
Israel also targeted air defenses in Syria at the end of last year after the country's regime, led by former leader Bashar al-Assad, collapsed.
While these operations set the stage for the Israeli campaign last week, some of Iran's air defenses are still in play, meaning Israel's pilots have to fly along specifics routes, an unnamed Israeli defense official told The New York Times. Israel leans on real-time intelligence to keep track of potential threats to its jets, the official said.
An IDF spokesperson said on Monday Israel had established a "safer route" for the aircraft to use in targeting Iran. The IDF declined to provide additional information, but reiterated the Israeli military had established "aerial control over Tehran from the western direction."
Defrin said on Monday Israel's extensive overnight strikes in central Iran had homed in on Iranian air defenses before striking other targets, such as command centers, with "dozens of aircraft simultaneously."
Some of Iran's jets and air defenses are originally Russian or Soviet designs. But the Middle East military situation is hard to compare with that in Ukraine.
Russia itself has a vast air force, despite more than three years of full-scale war in Ukraine. General Christopher Cavoli, the head of the United States' European forces, said in April last year Russia had lost roughly 10 percent of its fleet at that point in the war.
But despite this, Moscow has failed to assert convincing air superiority over Ukraine and its much smaller air force, analysts and Western intelligence says.
If Russia had destroyed Ukraine's defenses at the start of its invasion, "the fighting in Ukraine could have gone very differently," Freer said.
As of the start of 2025, Moscow had an estimated 1,224 operational aircraft under its aerospace forces, according to the IISS.
This includes fighter aircraft such as its MiG-29s and MiG-31s, as well as fighter-bombers such as the Su-27 and Su-34. Russia also had 127 bombers, such as those used by its long-range aviation forces.
Ukraine said earlier this month it had attacked more than 40 of Russia's expensive, hard-to-replace warplanes, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers. Kyiv said it had hit more than a third of Moscow's strategic cruise missile carriers in a coordinated, meticulously planned operation.
"In theory, the Russians had all the advantages," with a better, bigger fleet and time to plan, plus technological know-how and intelligence on Ukraine's defenses, said Mertens. But Moscow's pilots lack training, large numbers of stealth aircraft and advanced anti-radiation missiles, he said.
Russia's Su-57, its fifth generation stealth fighter aircraft, has seen little action in Ukraine. Kyiv said last June it had targeted one of the scarce but advanced aircraft hundreds of miles from Ukrainian soil.
Even so, Ukraine's air force was hit heavily in the first days and weeks of the war, and has "no chance to deal the Russians a knockout blow," Mertens said.
Ukraine itself had a Soviet fleet of roughly 124 combat-capable aircraft when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in early 2022, according to IISS figures.
Ukraine now has just 66 aircraft fit for flying, the IISS said earlier this year. The think tank estimated Kyiv had roughly 21 of its Soviet-era Su-27 in operation, and another 10 Su-25, plus 5 Su-24M jets.
Ukraine's air force had 7 combat-capable F-16 fighter jets, the IISS said, and it has received further F-16 deliveries since.
Kyiv had clamored for F-16s for many, many months before the Western-made jets were first used by Ukraine in late summer 2024.
Ukraine quickly put the jets into defensive roles, but F-16s have not typically made dramatic headlines. An attractive target for Russia, the few F-16s Ukraine operates likely came too late to make a real difference to Ukraine's war effort.
At least two Ukrainian pilots have died operating F-16s since last summer.
But even with the F-16s, "the Russians still have the numbers and their well-integrated massive SBAMD [surface-based air & missile defenses] on their side," Mertens said.
But it remains to be seen whether Russia has enough weaponry to upgrade Iran's air force, or even if it has the will to do so.
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