Draft pick watch: Why Bruins must prioritize first-round lottery odds

Yahoo

29-03-2025

Draft pick watch: Why Bruins must prioritize first-round lottery odds originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The smartest path for the Boston Bruins to take for the remainder of the 2024-25 NHL regular season is prioritizing their first-round pick.
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The Bruins entered Tuesday with the ninth-worst record in the league based on points percentage after losing 3-2 in overtime to the Buffalo Sabres on Monday night at TD Garden. The last time the Bruins' own first-round pick was in the top 10 was 2007 when they selected center Zach Hamill at No. 8 overall.
But that's where the Bruins find themselves with 14 games left in what has been a very disappointing season for the Original Six franchise.
The B's are still mathematically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but their chances of securing a postseason berth for the ninth straight year are incredibly small. Boston trails the Toronto Maple Leafs by 14 points for third place in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins trail the Ottawa Senators by eight points for the first wild card spot and the New York Rangers by three points for the second wild card spot.
MoneyPuck's analytics model gives the Bruins only a 0.7 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Boston is 2-2-1 after dealing away several veteran players, including captain Brad Marchand, before the March 7 trade deadline.
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It's time for the Bruins to play for the future.
What would this look like? Well, calling up some of the organization's top prospects from the AHL's Providence Bruins would be a good start. Give these young players a chance to prove themselves at the NHL level. It's important for prospects such as Fabian Lysell, Georgii Merkulov and Matthew Poitras to get reps against the best competition. The B's need to learn what they have in these players, regardless of whether they're part of the long-term solution or potential trade chips.
After the Bruins' final regular season game on April 15, the next date for fans to circle on their calendar is the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery. An official date for the lottery hasn't yet been announced by the league, but it typically takes place in May.
If the season ended today, the Bruins would have the following odds to land one of these picks in the draft lottery (via Tankathon):
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No. 1 overall : 5.0 percent
No. 2 : 5.2 percent
No. 3 : 0.2 percent
No. 9 : 64.4 percent
No. 10 : 23.5 percent
No. 11: 1.7 percent
The Bruins could jump as high as No. 1 overall, but they could also fall as far as No. 11. The most likely outcome is staying put at No. 9.
One draft lottery rule to remember is that teams can only jump 10 spots at most in the lottery. This means the top 11 teams in the lottery are able to get the No. 1 pick. Teams No. 12 through No. 16 cannot win the lottery. So it's important for the Bruins, if they miss the playoffs, to be among the 11-worst teams and keep their chances — even if they are very small — of winning the lottery alive.
The 2025 draft class is loaded with good centers. In fact, six or seven of the top 15 prospects in the class are centers, which is good news for the Bruins because they really need an infusion of high-end talent at that position.
The Bruins could still hang around in the playoff race. They have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule. But this team isn't a contender. The difference between the No. 8 or No. 9 pick and the No. 11 or No. 12 pick is significant. The time has come for the B's to prioritize draft positioning over the final few weeks of the season.
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