Keir Starmer's welfare vote nightmare hides a bigger problem: Britain just can't go on like this
And many of the rebels don't have much to lose; they're more scared of their constituents and of Reform snapping at their heels than of Morgan McSweeney. Compare and contrast with the situation of Tony Blair in 1997 when it was all glad confident morning. He wasn't any more keen on getting to grips with individual backbenchers than Sir Keir is and was notorious for his proclivity for sofa government, but his administration had an undeniable vim and sense of direction; not least thanks to Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson. Sir Keir lacks almost every attribute of Tony Blair, other than them both being lawyers.
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The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Has any government crashed as quickly as this one? Yes, and it's not even close...
Almost one year into the Starmer administration and the question is already being asked: has a government ever crashed so quickly? There's no denying the dismal poll ratings in which Labour now regularly runs behind Reform UK, the disappointing election results, mixed signals on the economy, U-turns, disarray in the parliamentary party and talk of 'regime change' (in No 10, not Tehran). There is obvious cause for Labour supporters to be disheartened, but some reasons to be cheerful too… How bad is the decline? It's not as bad as it looks. On the basis that, at the last general election, Keir Starmer converted Boris Johnson's 2019 Commons majority of 81 into a Labour overall majority of 174, it was indeed a stunning, historic performance – the best 'conversion' for any party since the Second World War. However, such a picture flatters to deceive. It was all done with fabulously tepid public support. Labour's vote share was 33.7 per cent, less than any other winning party in modern times, with only about one in five of the electorate expressing positive support. Starmer 's personal ratings were also modest as he went into the general election, certainly by comparison with, say, Tony Blair's stellar image in 1997. It's true that Labour poll ratings on the eve of the 2024 election were over-optimistic, and it's a little hazardous to compare real results with polls. But the overall point remains; Labour were never as loved as we might falsely imagine or discern from the eccentricities of the British electoral system. But is it still bad? Yes, in terms of a government emerging from a general election with a comfortable majority and sinking so low within a year of that result. But if we extend our timescale a little, it's also true that almost every such government suffers 'mid-term blues'. Blair's prolonged honeymoon after 1997 is a notable exception, and some administrations have gone into apparently terminal decline within about two to three years, but have recovered. The most spectacular post-war example would be how the Suez crisis in the autumn of 1956 wrecked Anthony Eden's government after he'd won an easy victory over Labour in May 1955. In that case, a change of leader helped preserve Tory rule the next time round. Another precipitous decline in reputation and standing – actually faster than Starmer's – followed John Major's election win in April 1992. His majority was slight (21 seats overall) but he'd beaten Labour by a solid seven percentage points. However, on 16 September 1992, 'Black Wednesday', sterling was forcibly ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Tory party's reputation for economic competence was shredded with it. An impressive economic recovery followed, but with little beneficial effect on the divided Tories' poll ratings. Even at the time, it looked like the die was cast for Labour's triumph in 1997. Slightly exceptional must be Boris Johnson's squandering of the historic achievement he enjoyed in 2019. He made his own share of mistakes – overpromising, underdelivering, Partygate, sleaze and misleading parliament – but the effect of the Covid pandemic on the economy also had something to do with his mostly self-inflicted fall from grace. After all, his personal ratings peaked during the vaccine rollout in 2021, and he was gone a year or so later when party and public lost patience with him. Which prime minister got it right? Margaret Thatcher. Her government, elected in May 1979, had a decent mandate but fell into deep economic trouble and disarray by 1981 in the depths of recession. She was rescued by a divided opposition, economic recovery, the 'Falklands factor' and a certain steadiness of nerve. A landslide followed in 1983. What about Labour governments? They don't win that many elections. A close analogy would be Harold Wilson 's second administration; he was also elected with a landslide – a majority of 97, in 1966 – but by 1968, the pound had been devalued, his economic planning policy was dead, and the government's popularity had collapsed, with historically bad local election and by-election results. However, Wilson and his chancellor, Roy Jenkins, took Reeves-style tough decisions and went through the 'hard slog' of tax rises and spending cuts to stage a formidable recovery. They still had to sacrifice major legislation to backbench revolts (reform of the Lords and the trade unions respectively), but were not far off winning the 1970 general election. Instead, the victor was a Tory leader most had written off as hopelessly bad at the job. Any other comforts for Labour? Well, Starmer is only the third Labour leader to win a general election, and he's already been in office longer than Liz Truss, who breaks all records for political dive-bombing (albeit some distance past the previous general election). Starmer will probably surpass Alex Douglas-Home's 363 days in No 10 (1963-64), and if he makes it to the next general election, he'll beat Johnson, Callaghan, Heath and May for time in office. He might even win again to complete his 'decade of renewal'. A volatile electorate, the intervention of Reform UK and the Tories' extreme weakness might throw up all sorts of surprises. History proves that economic success can sometimes yield dramatic post-nadir electoral dividends. It might happen. If so, by 2033 or 2034, Starmer could look back on his current travails as mere 'noises off'. But not yet.
The Guardian
4 hours ago
- The Guardian
Review calls for £10m overhaul of the Office for National Statistics
The UK's main statistics body needs a £10m overhaul and its top role split in two after a series of management failings and errors that have plagued the organisation for several years, a scathing report has found. The Devereux Review on performance and culture of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found 'deep-seated' issues that called for radical measures and warned of the likelihood that past statistics would need to retrospectively revised. Sir Robert Devereux, a retired career civil servant, said the role of national statistician should be split in two, creating a new role of ONS permanent secretary to oversee a wide-ranging reorganisation, alongside the national statistician, who assumes responsibility for the accuracy of published data. 'This new permanent secretary position could be handed to someone with a track record of leading and turning around an operational business,' Devereux said. He added: 'I suggest temporary separation since, with more effort to develop evident talent within the government statistical service, I think it might well be possible to recombine the roles in due course, once the organisation's core business is back on a more stable footing.' The role of national statistician is vacant after Prof Sir Ian Diamond retired due to ill health during the review. Among the searing criticisms in the review, Devereux said there was 'a weak system of planning and budgeting' and a reluctance at senior levels to hear and act on difficult news. The review said there was a 'reluctance on the part of some to take at face value the warnings which have been raised, apparently preferring instead to categorise those making the warnings as lacking in accountability'. Officials at the Bank of England and the Treasury, MPs and City analysts have criticised the ONS's operations after its surveys were hit by falling participation rates among businesses and the public during the pandemic, leading to questions about the validity of its data. The ONS, which is based in Newport, south Wales, has sought to increase the rate of responses to its surveys, but with only limited success. In particular, its labour market data showing the level of employment in the UK economy have been heavily revised in recent years. The consumer prices index and the retail prices index were recently found to be incorrect after an error by a government agency supplying the ONS with data pushed the headline rate up by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% in April. The ONS refused to amend the figure, arguing that investors who bought inflation-linked financial products would claim compensation. Acting national statistician Emma Rourke said the report marked 'a turning point for the ONS as we commit to implement the recommendations and reset towards a culture that embraces feedback and challenge'. The ONS has also published a £10m plan to improve the accuracy of its economic and population statistics. It said that improving the accuracy of ONS statistics will take collective effort. 'In some cases, this may mean revising published figures or historical series. That is not a sign of failure, but of a statistical system willing to evolve, led by evidence, and open about how it improves. 'We will work closely with users to ensure revisions and breaks in series are well managed, with support provided to users.' Devereux said senior managers had become focused on delivering new IT systems, diverting resources from existing system upgrades. 'There has been a commendable interest in both new approaches to statistics (including the use of administrative data) and ensuring the relevance of ONS activity to wider political debate. Unfortunately, this has had the (unintended) effect of de-prioritising the less exciting, but nonetheless crucial, task of delivering core economic statistics of sufficient quality to guide decision making,' he said. For instance, problems with trade data 'reflected known concerns' about flaws in the computer system used to compile the figures, but nothing was done about it until an error occurred. The producer price index, which measures the cost of raw materials and components used in industry, was flawed after staff stuck with old coding methods, reducing their ability to spot errors, said Devereux. In 2020, the ONS shifted publication of economic statistics from 9.30am to 7am. Concerns that this put added pressure on staff to verify and comment on data outside office hours sparked a review by the statistics regulator. The review found a move back to 9.30am would not be possible due in part to the weakness of the IT systems.
The National
4 hours ago
- The National
Question Time called out as Reform councillor on St Andrews panel
Thomas Kerr, a Glasgow councillor who defected from the Tories, is due to take part in the flagship debate programme on Thursday night from St Andrews. All of Reform UK's Scottish politicians are defectors from the Tories or Scottish Labour. They have not won an election north of the Border. Kerr will join Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Tory MP Andrew Bowie and broadcaster Lesley Riddoch on the programme. READ MORE: Patrick Harvie and Angus Robertson face-off over Israel divestment A number of social media users pointed out that both the Scottish Greens and Scottish LibDems have more elected representatives than Reform, but are not as frequently platformed by the broadcaster. Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said: 'Reform and the politics they represent are a direct threat to Scotland. We all saw what they were really about during the Hamilton by-election – where they ran a campaign of hate-fuelled prejudice and misinformation, showing themselves to be a racist, far-right party. 'Long before his rise in the opinion polls, the BBC gave Nigel Farage an extraordinarily high profile, as one of the most regular faces at the Question Time table. Now, they are doing the same in Scotland where his latest political vehicle has never had so much as a local councillor elected. 'It is frankly bizarre that the BBC has chosen to platform a representative of a party with zero electoral track record, and a party whose politics have been shown to be dishonest, divisive and dangerous.' Tomorrow, Question Time is in St Andrews Joining Fiona are Anas Sarwar, Andrew Bowie, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Thomas Kerr, and Lesley Riddoch 9pm on the @BBCNews channel, @BBCiPlayer and @BBCSounds, or @BBCOne at 10:40pm Apply now: — BBC Question Time (@bbcquestiontime) June 25, 2025 A spokesperson for the BBC said: 'Question Time is a national programme which must be relevant to audiences across the UK and reflect a wide range of political views. "We continue to seek a range of views when Question Time comes to Scotland and across this series, our panels have had representation from the various political parties, including the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats. 'We also take account of the most recent electoral performance and electoral movement since the election. "Reform have consistently polled strongly all across the UK and in a recent Scottish Parliamentary by-election (Hamilton, Rutherglen and Stonehouse), Reform polled 26% of the vote, and finished third, behind Labour and SNP.' Kerr's inclusion on the programme sparked a strong reaction online. SNP MSP James Dornan said: 'Once again we see the once unknown Tory councillor Thomas Kerr on BBC. I have no doubt at all that him deserting that sinking ship to join Reform had absolutely nothing to do with it of course.' Scottish Greens Glasgow councillor Jon Molyneux added: 'Thomas Kerr has more time for TV cameras than he does for his constituents. He's not contributed to a council meeting for six months. 'Too much like hard work or running scared? He should do the job taxpayers pay him for and open up his snake oil to proper scrutiny.' READ MORE: SNP MPs join Labour rebels in bid to kill off benefit cuts On social media user said: 'When was the last time, BBC Question Time had a 'councillor' from a political party? They are so desperate to platform Reform.' Another added: 'Reform, again. No elected representatives in Scotland, but let's promote them anyway at the expense of the other parties who do have elected politicians.' One said simply: 'Again where are the Liberal Democrats or the Greens, Might as well just call it the Reform show #bbcbias.' It comes as a new MRP poll from YouGov, released on Thursday morning, predicted Reform winning three Westminster seats in Scotland.
