When America joins Israel's war with Iran

Hindustan Times

4 hours ago

The US bombing of key Iranian nuclear facilities Sunday will have significant geopolitical implications for regional stability, global geopolitics, and India's immediate and medium-term interests. However, for now, it doesn't appear that the US-Israeli attack on Iran is likely to go all the way, making it improbable that Iran will be completely denuclearised or that the Islamic regime in Tehran will fall. A severely weakened Iranian regime is likely to respond with military and grey-zone tactics, increasing political and economic instability in the region. Moreover, neither Israel nor the US appear to have an endgame in mind in this war. The US-Israel attack will deepen divisions and sharpen existing global geopolitical fault lines (REUTERS)
There are at least six key implications of this ongoing war.
First, West Asia is likely to revert to a period of chaos, conflict, and uncertainty, at least for some time. Despite Iran's strained relations with many of its neighbours, the US decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and join Israel's military campaign will make it difficult for other regional powers to resume efforts to normalise relations with Tel Aviv. Iran and its regime may not be popular in the Sunni strongholds of West Asia, but neither is Israel, especially given its actions in Gaza and the ongoing humanitarian tragedy there. Russia and China are likely to increase their geopolitical influence in the region, and neither will miss opportunities to challenge Israel and the US, making the regional balance even more complex and unpredictable.
Second, the attack will deepen divisions and sharpen existing global geopolitical fault lines. While the US and Israel may achieve immediate military gains, many others will be dissatisfied: With their geopolitical standing threatened, they might seek to undermine the dominance established by the US-Israel alliance in the region. Many in the Global South are likely to condemn the unilateral actions and violations of international law by the US and Israel. Meanwhile, China will look to exploit the emerging regional fractures, while Moscow will seek to recover the influence it lost in West Asia — due to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and now, through the attack on Iran — and spot an opportunity in the post-war scene.
Interestingly, Europe has maintained a curious silence. However, it will inevitably ask why the US, which wanted its Nato partners to pay for their defence and abandoned Ukraine thus increasing Europe's insecurity, would resort to force in a distant country. Clearly, Trump has prioritised Israel over Nato allies; that rude reality won't be lost on Europe.
Third, the American and Israeli attacks on Iran lack legitimacy under international law, and as a result, these will further undermine the credibility of the United Nations and weaken the influence of international law worldwide. For America's western partners, this presents several dilemmas. It will test their commitment to international legal frameworks as condemning the attack risks alienating Trump further, and not condemning it risks being seen as tacit support for an illegal action. Moreover, if they do not condemn the US action, the moral ground to criticise Russia will be considerably weakened. It also undermines the geopolitical standing of key western States, which were actively engaged in negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister in Geneva to end the conflict. They face the risk of losing credibility considering how Trump went ahead and bombed Iran ignoring the talks.
Fourth, American engagement in the West Asian conflict could divert attention from Ukraine's ongoing war with Russia. The Iran war would be disastrous for Ukraine, especially as the US has been unable to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Russia's gains on the battlefield are growing and Moscow shows no enthusiasm to negotiate a ceasefire with Kyiv.
Fifth, the attempted denuclearisation of Iran will likely have the opposite effect internationally, prompting several other countries to consider developing their own nuclear weapons for after all those who possess nuclear weapons have little to fear. Rather than strengthening the global nuclear order, the US and Israel's military action to denuclearise Iran will end up weakening it, encouraging more States to pursue nuclear arms as insurance against potential threats. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, while Iran failed to reach the finish line; both faced significant consequences. Israel developed its nuclear programme secretly, North Korea built its nuclear weapons at great domestic cost, and India and Pakistan developed theirs despite sanctions and US pressure. The lessons are many, and will not be lost on nuclear aspirants around the world.
Finally, for India, the war in West Asia will likely unsettle the country's grand plans for broader engagement with the region. Energy prices are likely to spike, while heightened geopolitical divides will challenge India's ability to manage regional fault lines. If the war spreads or persists, it could also impact Indian nationals in the region and the remittances they send home. Moreover, the Iran conflict will, at least for the moment, stall India's regional plans for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the Chabahar port in Iran, projected as India's gateway to central Asia.
Happymon Jacob teaches India's foreign policy at Jawaharlal Nehru University and is the editor of INDIA'S WORLD magazine. The views expressed are personal