Mirtle: The NHL playoffs and identifying one burning question for every series

New York Times

29-04-2025

Tuesday marks Day 11 of the NHL playoffs, and thanks to the Ottawa Senators' dramatic overtime win in Game 4 on the weekend, all 16 teams are still alive.
Not only that, but every Western Conference series is guaranteed to go to at least six games, which almost ensures we're likely to get extra Round 1 drama through the weekend.
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There are eight Game 7s scheduled for Saturday and Sunday, so don't make any big plans with the in-laws. My guess is that, with the level of parity in this year's postseason at one of its highest points ever, we end up getting at least three or four series that go the distance.
With every series now past the four-game mark and seven massive Game 5s coming on Tuesday and Wednesday, I thought it would be a fitting time to take a spin around the NHL and highlight some of the biggest talking points.
Let's start in the East.
(1) Capitals lead (8) Canadiens 3-1
I get the sense that the young upstarts in Montreal are many hockey fans' favorite bandwagon club this year. I've received a ton of text messages from family and friends lauding the play of their kids up against a veteran-laden contender through four games.
But losing Sam Montembeault — who quietly had an outstanding season with the third-best goals saved above expected in the league — to injury in Game 3 felt like a bit of a death blow to their chances of an upset, even if Czech rookie Jakub Dobes was one of their feel-good stories this season. Expecting the 23-year-old to carry them to three straight W's against the East's top team seems unlikely.
And if shutdown defender Alexandre Carrier is knocked out for any length of time by this crushing Tom Wilson hit from Game 4, that's going to be almost impossible to compensate for, given how many tough minutes he plays at even strength and on PK1.
Full credit to Washington for not taking its opponent lightly, as this one has been a battle so far. But you might want to tune in for the next game, given how exciting this series has been and the fact the odds are piling up against one of hockey's best stories of the season.
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No matter how it turns out, this feels like just the beginning for this Canadiens team.
(2) Maple Leafs lead (6) Senators 3-1
In no other market in the NHL would a team that took a 3-0 lead in a series, losing Game 4, be talked about like it is right now in Toronto. But that's the issue when the Maple Leafs have blown so many series over the past 12 years, losing elimination games again and again with this core group of players.
It's not quite that there's panic, not after one loss. But there's the anticipation that panic is not all that far away, if that makes sense.
The Leafs certainly look like a different team than years past, with a new coach in Craig Berube, a revamped no-nonsense style of play, and the addition of hardened veterans such as Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Scott Laughton. Toronto finished with the league's fourth-best record on the strength of great goaltending, a dominant power play and blocking a metric ton of shots, strengths that have certainly powered them so far in this series.
But you have to give Ottawa credit, too. Despite their inexperience, the Senators have earned full underdog value in pushing the last three games to overtime. Defenseman Jake Sanderson is looking like a budding star, for one, and their checkers have managed to limit Toronto to seven even-strength goals after a terrible showing in Game 1.
The Leafs have both the experience and talent advantage here, so they should be able to put this team away with three more chances to do so. Until they do, however, the narrative is only going to grow that they can't get it done when it counts.
Winning Game 5 on Tuesday at home would quiet a lot of doubters. (Until Round 2 anyway.)
(5) Panthers lead (3) Lightning 3-1
The Lightning were the highest-scoring team in the NHL this season, with 3.56 goals per game and a 26 percent power play, carried by the fact they had four 35-plus goal scorers.
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After dropping Monday's Game 4 by a score of 4-2 — allowing three goals unanswered late in the third period — Tampa has scored just nine times all postseason. The man advantage has been a big part of the problem, converting just once on 15 opportunities, but Florida's stifling defensive game has come through at even strength, too, and 36-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky has outplayed Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal.
The biggest storyline in the series, however, has been all of the ugly hits and bad blood between the two state rivals. Game 4 featured yet another one when Aaron Ekblad took out Brandon Hagel with a forearm to the face. With Hagel not able to return to the game, that made offense even harder to come by for what's been a surprisingly punchless Tampa team.
There very well could be another suspension coming in this series, either for Ekblad's hit, one by Niko Mikkola later in the game that led to an ejection, or perhaps even both. Their possible absences — and potentially Hagel's — loom large for Game 5.
The Panthers have always been a brutal team to play in the postseason, earning the nickname 'The Butchers' for good reason, but the trade deadline addition of Seth Jones has made them even more formidable on the back end. He's leading the team with more than 25 minutes played per game and hasn't been on the ice for a single five-on-five goal against all series.
With Matthew Tkachuk limited by injury (and playing sparingly in this series) and Ekblad missing 20 games due to suspension (including the first two of this series), many were picking against a third consecutive long playoff run for the defending champs.
So far, however, they look like contenders, yet again.
(4) Hurricanes lead (7) Devils 3-1
The Devils are dealing with a lot of tough injuries here — including Jack Hughes and now three key defensemen — and those absences are one key reason the Hurricanes appear set to breeze through this series fairly quickly.
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Carolina's just a lot deeper than New Jersey, and that's exacerbated by who's missing from the lineup.
Jaccob Slavin's one-man effort goal in Game 4 is a good example of how poorly that series has been going for New Jersey, which has been outscored 14-7.
Jaccob Slavin – Carolina Hurricanes (1)* pic.twitter.com/VJ8hbvbOVu
— NHL Goal Videos (@NHLGoalVideos) April 27, 2025
Timo Meier's controversial goal-mouth collision with Canes netminder Freddie Andersen in Game 4, however, has cast a new light on the series. Carolina's biggest weakness and question mark coming into the playoffs was going to be its goalies, given Andersen's age and health issues, and Pyotr Kochetkov's consistency problems.
Kochetkov played well in relief in Game 4, and he's had stretches of strong play in the past. But assuming they're able to get past the Devils, Carolina potentially not having Andersen is going to be a massive question mark for Round 2 (and beyond) for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations.
(1) Jets tied with (8) Blues 2-2
The Hart Trophy nominations will be released on Thursday, and Jets netminder Hellebuyck is almost certainly going to be there. He very well could end up being only the second goalie to be named league MVP in the last 23 years.
But his struggles in the postseason have become not only the story of this series but of the NHL playoffs as a whole. Hellebuyck has an impossibly low .817 save percentage after getting chased in back-to-back games and has allowed a league-high seven goals more than expected in only four games.
His play this season was the No. 1 reason the Jets won the Presidents' Trophy and entered the postseason as one of the favorites to win it all. If he can't find his form, a Blues team that was the hottest club in the NHL after the 4 Nations break is going to pull off a huge upset.
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The Blues were the league's best offensive team down the stretch — scoring a ridiculous 3.8 goals per game with a nearly 30 percent success rate on the power play over the final third of the season — so this isn't completely out of nowhere. But Winnipeg leads the NHL in limiting scoring chances and high-danger chances against and just needs a few more saves to get back on track.
(2) Golden Knights tied with (7) Wild 2-2
Given the way the Wild limped into the postseason, going 18-18-3 in the second half of the year, it's understandable that few picked them to win in Round 1 against a Golden Knights team that finished with 110 points.
But Minnesota was decimated by injuries in the second half, missing team MVP Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin for the majority of those second-half games, a huge part of why their record fell off the way it did.
At midseason, the Wild were actually on pace for 111 points, right there with Vegas, and it's that team that appears to have shown up in this series. Kaprizov has been a buzz saw, putting up four goals and eight points in 23 minutes a night through four games. And Matt Boldy continues to emerge as one of the league's top young stars, after a similarly impressive showing at the 4 Nations for Team USA.
Vegas has carried the balance of play in the series at five-on-five, thanks to a deeper cast of forwards, but if Filip Gustavsson continues to outplay Adin Hill to this extent, Minnesota has a great shot at pulling off the upset. But I'm not sure that with the Wild finally healthy, it should even count as one.
The West is certainly as competitive as it's ever been this year, one through eight.
(3) Stars lead (5) Avalanche 3-2
This series has been about as evenly matched as could be, with the two teams trading punches and counterpunches game to game. One night might be a defensive battle (Game 3) or an offensive explosion from one team (Avs in Game 4). The next might be a bit of fireworks from the other (Stars in Game 5).
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It's been so back and forth that any additional edge either team could get in games 6 and 7 could be huge, and it just so happens the Stars might have their franchise defenseman getting healthy just in time to help late in the series. Heiskanen has been skating and traveling with the team in the playoffs, indicating that his three-month recovery from knee surgery may be about over.
Thomas Harley has been terrific in logging nearly 30 minutes a game on the back end to lead all NHL players in the postseason so far, but the Avalanche have been on the right side in terms of puck possession and scoring chances at even strength for long stretches of the series, which could give them the edge at home in Game 6. If Heiskanen's healthy, that could tip the series balance more in Dallas' favor.
(4) Kings tied with (6) Oilers 2-2
This series has had a bit of a split personality, with two games in one.
There's the game when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are on the ice, inflicting their will on the result, shift after shift. And then there's the game when they're not, when the Kings go to work putting a pile of pucks on the Oilers' beleaguered, overmatched goalies.
The numbers tell a pretty incredible story. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are controlling 69 percent of chances at even strength. With Draisaitl out there, that jumps to 76 percent.
With them out there together for the 45 minutes they've teamed up, they've had a ridiculous 85 percent of the expected goals, basically having their way with a Kings team that was one of the top defensive clubs in the NHL all season. Add in a power play that's clicking at 40 percent, and it's no wonder the two Oilers stars have nine points through four games to lead the league.
Without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, however, it's the Oilers that get filled in (44 percent expected goals share). Minus Bouchard, too, and things get even more dire, closer to 60-40 in L.A.'s favor.
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That's been the story every time these two teams have matched up in the playoffs, with the McDavid and Draisaitl Show taking over, and it's the biggest reason the Kings are 0-3 in these meetings. But this is a better L.A. team, in goal and defensive depth. And Edmonton, without Mattias Ekholm on the back end and with its goalies struggling, is leakier than ever before.
Whether those shifts will allow the Kings to hold off two of the best players of this generation makes the final three games of this series must-see TV.
Because you know this one isn't ending in six.
(Top photos of Connor Hellebuyck, Kirill Kaprizov and Connor McDavid: Sam Hodde, Luke Schmidt and Andy Devlin / Getty Images)