Boeing lowers 2044 global air fleet outlook amid supply chain woes
NEW YORK: The global commercial aviation fleet will stand just under 50,000 planes in 2044, with most built over the next 20 years, according to a Boeing forecast released Saturday.
The global fleet will nearly double to 49,600, a bit below Boeing's prior annual outlook, the company said ahead of the giant Paris Air Show beginning Monday.
Emerging markets "with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks and sustained aviation investment" will represent more than 50 percent of the commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40 percent in 2024, Boeing said.
But the forecast also shows the effects of supply chain difficulties in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"The supply chain has probably had a small role in our slight reduction in deliveries over the next 20 years," Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said at a briefing on Tuesday.
The briefing came before Thursday's deadly Air India crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
Following the crash, which has killed at least 279 people, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and commercial plane chief Stephanie Pope canceled plans to attend.
The Boeing forecast projects annual passenger growth of 4.2 percent, above the 2.3 percent annual growth in GDP.
"New aircraft deliveries haven't been able to keep up with the demand," said Hulst, who estimates that problem has resulted in a "cumulative shortage" of some 1,500 to 2,000 planes.
But Hulst expects the cadence of deliveries to pick up between now and the end of the current decade.
Of the 43,600 new planes required between now and 2044, an estimated 21,100 will replace existing fleet and 22,500 will be needed to address rising demand in China and emerging markets.
These figures indicate an expected dramatic expansion of the global air fleet over four decades from 2004, when the fleet consisted of just 16,780 planes.
In a sign of how the aviation market has changed, the 10 biggest aviation companies in 2004 accounted for 45 percent of the global fleet and were dominated by companies from North American and Europe.
But today's top 10 account for just 30 percent of the market and are composed of a greater share of companies from Asia and the Middle East – a region that had no companies in the top 10 in the earlier period.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New Straits Times
4 hours ago
- New Straits Times
US trade war enters precarious 'Slow Grind' phase
US trade negotiations have transitioned from their opening act, with its many twists and turns, into a new, protracted chapter: the Slow Grind. It may be less turbulent than this past spring's drama, but no less worrying for investors. Now that the US and China have the framework for a trade agreement, attention may start to turn to the European Union, which appears next in line to strike a deal with the Trump administration. But the prospect of a swift resolution seems remote. Finding significant common ground to meaningfully reduce the EU's substantial goods surplus with the US, roughly US$200 billion annually, presents a formidable challenge, as major avenues appear blocked. The EU is highly unlikely to concede on agricultural market access given the region's strong and comprehensive policy for protecting local agriculture. Large-scale aircraft deals also seem improbable given the Airbus-Boeing rivalry. The contentious issue of pharmaceutical pricing will complicate any healthcare deals. While Europe could theoretically increase purchases of US defence equipment or relax "Buy European" policies in defence procurement, the political palatability of such moves is low. Consequently, the focus may inevitably shift towards the services sector, where the EU runs an approximately US$100 billion annual deficit with the US, driven largely by the operations of American technology giants. Here, a potential landing zone exists: the EU could conceivably ease some of its more burdensome technology regulations with limited immediate downside, offering a tangible, albeit partial, lever to address the overall trade imbalance. In fact, Section 899 in the Trump administration's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" — which threatens to increase taxes on entities from countries with "unfair foreign taxes" — appears to be aimed directly at digital taxes levied by EU countries on US technology companies. This suggests that this area could be a focal point in US-EU negotiations. US negotiations with the EU are also occurring against a markedly different backdrop than the one that prevailed in May during the earlier round of trade talks with China. Back then, the US was just emerging from a significant bout of financial market volatility and facing the risk of "empty shelves" if onerous tariffs on China remained in place, so both investors and business leaders were demanding urgent action. Importantly, EU exports to the US are predominantly industrial and luxury goods, not the daily consumables that directly impact the average American's pocketbook. Adding to this calmer backdrop, capital markets have shown signs of adapting to the current administration's seemingly unpredictable trade tactics. The S&P 500 index has rebounded 20 per cent since its post-Liberation Day low and is only around 2.0 per cent below its all-time high. One major risk, however, is that the US starts taking a harder line with Europe for fear of looking weak. Central to the US negotiation strategy is the perceived credibility of threats. Given the Trump administration's emphasis on the president's deal-making prowess, the US fundamentally cannot afford to be seen as backing down consistently, a scenario some critics have labelled "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO). Being perceived as unreliable with ultimatums would critically undermine the administration's negotiating power, not just with the EU, but globally. This need to maintain a credible hard line could add friction to the process, making concessions harder to make and progress slower to achieve. On the currency front, the euro may continue to appreciate against the US dollar — ending a more than decade-long trend of greenback strength — if wary European investors bring more capital back home. This could give the European Central Bank greater leeway to implement interest rate cuts, with less immediate concern about imported inflation. However, such euro strength has historically been negatively correlated with the performance of risk assets more broadly, adding another layer of complexity to the investment landscape. Further complicating the picture is the risk that the tentative deal just reached with China could unravel, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war within the US administration between China hawks and pragmatists. The frenetic pace of the trade war's opening chapter has given way to a more arduous phase. This "Slow Grind" promises to generate more uncertainty, testing the patience of markets and policymakers alike, with progress likely measured in inches rather than miles.
The Star
6 hours ago
- The Star
Boeing resumes China deliveries with 787-9 jet to Juneyao Airlines, Yicai reports
The interior of a British Airways Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner. Boeing has delivered a new 787-9 aircraft to China's Juneyao Airlines. - Samuel Ong/The Star BEIJING/HONG KONG: Boeing delivered a new 787-9 aircraft to China's Juneyao Airlines on Saturday (June 14), Chinese media outlet Yicai reported, as trade tensions between Beijing and Washington ease. The delivery comes two days after a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner with 242 people on board crashed in a fireball shortly after takeoff in western India. Boeing and Juneyao Airlines did not immediately reply to Reuters requests for comment on the Yicai report. The US aerospace giant had suspended new aircraft deliveries to China in April as President Donald Trump's tariff war escalated between the world's two largest economies. Boeing said at the end of May that deliveries would resume this month after the tariffs were temporarily scaled back for 90 days. China and the US concluded two days of negotiations in London on Tuesday to resolve key trade issues in the two superpowers' bruising tariff war, where negotiators from Washington and Beijing agreed on a framework covering tariff rates. On Monday, a new Boeing 737 MAX painted in the livery of Xiamen Airlines landed in China, adding to signs that the planemaker was resuming deliveries to China. The country represents about ten per cent of Boeing's commercial backlog and is an important and growing aviation market. Boeing had previously said customers in China would not take delivery of new planes due to the tariffs and that it was looking to resell potentially dozens of aircraft. - Reuters
New Straits Times
13 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Kelantan's 'Mini Dhaka' raises concerns over foreign business dominance, overcrowding
KOTA BARU: An area in Kelantan, often dubbed "Mini Dhaka" by locals due to its high concentration of Bangladeshi and Pakistani migrant workers, has come under scrutiny amid growing concerns over overcrowding and the proliferation of foreign-run businesses. The term, initially used to describe a cluster of densely populated rental homes, is now increasingly associated with parts of Jalan Dato' Pati and Jalan Doktor, where foreign nationals are said to be taking over local business premises. According to local sources, many of these foreign entrepreneurs, primarily from Bangladesh and Pakistan, began opening grocery shops and restaurants after marrying local women and settling in the state. The trend, they said, picked up pace after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country. "These areas are slowly transforming into a foreign commercial hub. They've opened shops, eateries and mini markets. On weekdays, it's relatively quiet, but come weekends, especially on Fridays, the place is packed," said a trader operating nearby. He added that most of the customers are fellow foreign workers, many of whom are employed as general labourers or plantation workers across Kelantan. "There's a noticeable shift. Local businesses are being edged out, and the clientele is mostly made up of foreign nationals," the trader said. Long-time residents and local business operators have voiced concerns over the impact on local commerce and social balance. Meanwhile, a spokesman from the local municipal council said the authorities are aware of the issue and are working with enforcement agencies to ensure proper documentation, business licensing and compliance with health regulations. He said regular inspections are being planned to monitor business operations in the affected areas. "The municipal council and relevant enforcement agencies are aware of public concerns, and action will be taken where necessary. "It is important to ensure business regulations are adhered to and that the community remains balanced and secure," he added. In January last year, four children were among nearly 300 undocumented foreigners detained during a special operation codenamed "Ops Kutip" in the town area. The operation, conducted in what is now referred to as Kelantan's "Mini Dhaka", was a joint effort involving the Immigration Department, police, and the Kota Baru Municipal Council.
