Turkey Balances Carbon Interests with Green Ambitions
Complicating Turkey's COP31 bid is Ankara's diplomatic distancing from the West in recent years, coupled with mounting democratic backsliding, underscored by the recent arrest of Erdoan's leading political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who maintains his jailing is politically motivated.
To secure COP31, Turkey is expected to engage in high-level dialogue seeking support from Western Europe, North America and New Zealand. According to Ümit ?ahin, a prominent Turkish climate expert and the coordinator of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Center, Turkey's ability to secure COP31 will require some adjustments to the government's present foreign political course.
'Turkey needs to move beyond seemingly logical reasons such as fossil fuels or carbon footprints and instead make a fully political intervention, which perhaps could be an argument that Turkey will further align itself with the West,' ?ahin said in a recent interview with Turkish news outlet T24. 'As long as these steps are not taken, EU support cannot be secured, and it seems very difficult for Turkey to win.'
Australia's COP31 bid has experienced a hiccup since the UN climate summit in Baku. According to a report published by the Australian Associated Press, some elements within the country's coalition government believe hosting a global summit would not be a wise expenditure of taxpayer funds. But Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen sought to tamp down speculation that Australia might back out. 'We are bidding to host COP31 in partnership with the Pacific because it is in Australia's national interest to bring down energy bills and emissions with reliable renewables while safeguarding our international relationships,' the AAP quoted Bowen as saying.
Perhaps surprisingly, Turkish civil society organizations – which have come under growing pressure from Erdo?an's regime in recent years, and are often at odds with the government's climate policies – generally are supportive of the government's COP31 bid.
Experts argue that hosting the summit could push Turkey toward adopting more decisive climate policies. ?ahin notes that securing COP31 could encourage Turkey to take more concrete steps, such as phasing out coal and enacting stronger environmental protections. Environmental organizations, including Greenpeace, also have voiced support for Turkey's bid, with Berkan Özyer, program director of Greenpeace Mediterranean, commenting that hosting COP31 could give Turkey's climate movement a much-needed boost by encouraging bolder decision-making.
Whether or not Turkey can win EU support for its bid could be the determining factor in the COP31 hosting competition. With the EU seeking to bolster its energy security — and Turkey well positioned to assist through the Southern Gas Corridor and renewed high-level dialogue — Ankara holds valuable cards. Yet, ongoing concerns over democratic backsliding cast a shadow over its credibility.
By Ata Turkoglu via Eurasianet.org
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