State of Origin Game 1: where the 2025 series will be won and lost

The Guardian

26-05-2025

New South Wales' determined State of Origin victory in the Brisbane decider last season has earned their many returning players favouritism in this year's series, which kicks off on Wednesday at Suncorp Stadium.
The pressure will be on Billy Slater's Maroons to make the most of the home crowd in the opener, particularly after the pain of last season and with game two in Perth a potential decider in Sydney. In 2024, the Blues won the shield in a Brisbane decider for the first time since 2005, and 13 of those players return to the scene of the heist on Wednesday night.
The Blues boast the game's best half in Nathan Cleary and best forward in Payne Haas. They ofter continuity in a line-up battle-hardened by Origin experience, with a lone debutant, prop Max King, off the bench. The biggest obstacle around their continuity is the departure of Michael Maguire as coach, who took up the job at Brisbane and was replaced by Laurie Daley. The returning coach was conservative in his selections, naming the fewest number of debutants for a State of Origin opener in 31 years.
The Maroons face more questions. While Queensland benefit from the return from injury of game-breaker Cameron Munster at five-eighth, Slater has chosen to call up three debutants, including 20-year-old Robert Toia. His ability to adapt to the Origin level will be one of game's one deciding factors.
The most contentious selection for Daley – back in the Origin arena after seven years – was in the halves. Jarome Luai played all three games at five-eighth in last year's 2-1 series victory and had settled in well at the Wests Tigers this year, helping the wooden-spooners to five wins and putting them in contention for the top eight.
With Cleary a lock for Blues halfback despite the Panthers' struggles in 2025, Daley could have made an easy decision to stick with Luai and revive the connection that delivered four premierships to Penrith.
Daley instead went with Parramatta halfback Moses to play No 6 alongside Cleary. Moses was brilliant at No 7 in last year's series in the absence of Cleary, and has played five-eighth before. But after a foot injury earlier this year he has only played 320 minutes, and typically occupies the right side of the defensive line, the same position as Penrith's halfback.
Moses was asked on Monday how he will share the role of playmaker with Cleary. 'Every half has an ego, otherwise you wouldn't be in the position, to be honest,' he said. 'It's about putting it to the side and what's best for the team, and we're going to do that.'
Aged just 20, Roosters centre Toia has been named for the Maroons having played just 10 NRL matches. He will become the least-experienced starting player in Origin history on Wednesday, and faces one of the game's most daunting tasks.
The right centre will likely face up against Latrell Mitchell as a direct match-up on a NSW left side that is also set to include Moses, winger Brian To'o and backrower Angus Crichton, Toia's clubmate.
Though he has only recently landed on the national stage, Toia has been signed to the Roosters since he was 14 and has long been earmarked for success. Despite a rapid rise, his path has not been without adversity. The New Zealand-born centre has had to overcome two knee reconstructions, a serious back injury and broken jaw.
The compact, powerful Toia has already faced Mitchell once, in round five's Rabbitohs' victory. Mitchell was instrumental in that match, creating the winning try with a late three-man cutout pass that sailed pass Toia's head.
The surprising omission of Raiders' forward Corey Horsburgh has shone a microscope on Slater's rotation of forwards, which will include debutant Trent Loiero and Lindsay Collins.
The latter missed six weeks of football this season with a knee injury and is yet to play in a winning side for the Roosters in 2025. The former let his Storm teammates down with late indiscipline that cost them the Magic Round golden point clash against Horsburgh's Canberra. Slater has also handed a debut to Titans backrower Beau Fermor, whose inclusion provides cover in the centres.
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The Blues look honed for the yardage battle with strong ball-runners in fullback Dylan Edwards, and wingers To'o and Zac Lomax. The pressure will be on the unheralded Maroons forwards to limit the progress through the middle of these three, as well as the likes of Haas and Spencer Leniu who form an imposing New South Wales pack.
Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans have been selected in the Queensland halves, and they become the second-most experienced Maroons pairing behind only Jonathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer.
The selection was not automatic though, given Munster missed last season through injury and 36-year-old Cherry-Evans has been in headlines this season more for his contract situation than his good form.
Ben Hunt's ability to play hooker or in the halves would have given the Maroons' proven Origin versatility, but a hamstring tear opened the door for Dearden. The Cowboys co-captain performed ably at No 6 last season, and could feel aggrieved to be relegated to the bench.
On the flipside he looms as Slater's ace. He could act as an another ballplayer in the middle of the park, a reserve rake to Harry Grant, a genuine replacement option if Munster or Cherry-Evans go down or simply a incisive interchange targeting tired forwards with his running game.
Injury concerns for centre Stephen Crichton – who limped out of training on Monday – and Haas could yet throw a spanner in NSW plans. The prop brought his own quad injury into camp, but Daley has wanted to give him every opportunity to be fit in time for kickoff on Wednesday night.
Souths and former Kangaroos centre Campbell Graham and Storm forward Stefano Utoikamanu – capped once for the Blues in 2023 – are on standby if either player withdraws. Both are solid representative players, but neither provide the calibre of Crichton and Haas, each the game's best player in their respective positions.
Either coach will also be tempted to tweak their starting lineup with a late change in a bid to find an edge. Both forward packs selected provide a mix of impact and effort forwards, while Dearden and Blues' No 14 Connor Watson offer the versatility to tweak either team's balance.