How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran's nuclear programme?
Israel's strikes on Iran have taken aim at its nuclear facilities, amid fears that the Islamic republic is seeking to develop nuclear weapons -- an accusation Tehran denies.
Experts told AFP that while the attacks might have caused some damage to Iran's nuclear programme, they are unlikely to have delivered a fatal blow.
- What is the extent of the damage? -
Israel's operation included strikes on Iran's underground uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, and a uranium conversion facility at Isfahan, according to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), citing information from Iranian officials.
IAEA said on Friday that a key, above-ground component of Iran's Natanz nuclear site had been destroyed, also citing Iranian officials.
There was "extensive" damage to the site's power supply, according to a report from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a US-based organisation specialising in nuclear proliferation, which analysed satellite images.
A loss of electricity to underground facilities can significantly damage the site's centrifuges, the machines used to enrich uranium, the ISIS institute said.
If backup power is lost, "at the least, the enrichment plant is rendered inoperable for the time being", it said.
Iran has said the damage to Fordow, south of Tehran, was minor.
But experts said it is impossible at this stage to determine the impact the strikes might have had on uranium stockpiles believed to be stored around the Isfahan site.
Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group's Iran project director, told AFP that if Iran managed to transfer significant quantities to "secret facilities," then "the game is lost for Israel".
- Can the programme be destroyed? -
While "Israel can damage Iran's nuclear programme... it is unlikely to be able to destroy it", Vaez said, arguing that Israel does not have the massively powerful bombs needed "to destroy the fortified, bunkered facilities in Natanz and Fordow".
Destroying those would require US military assistance, added Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association.
She also stressed that Israel's unprecedented attack cannot erase the expertise Iran had built up on nuclear weapons, despite killing nine Iranian nuclear scientists.
- What are the risks to the Iranian population? -
The IAEA has not detected any increase in radiation levels at the affected sites.
"There is very little risk that attacks on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities would result in a harmful radiation release," said Davenport.
But an attack on Bushehr, Iran's only nuclear power plant, could "have a serious impact on health and the environment", she added.
After Israel launched its strikes, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that nuclear facilities "must never be attacked" and that targeting Iranian sites could have "grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond".
- Is Iran close to developing a nuclear bomb? -
After the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from a landmark deal that sought to curb Tehran's nuclear activities, Iran has gradually retreated from some of its obligations, particularly on uranium enrichment.
As of mid-May, the country had an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes enriched to up to 60 percent -- just a short step from the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.
Iran theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.
Iran is the only non nuclear-armed state producing uranium to this level of enrichment, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.
While the IAEA has been critical of Iran's lack of cooperation with the UN body, it says that there is "no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme".
Tehran has consistently denied ambitions to develop nuclear warheads.
But Davenport warned the strikes could strengthen factions in Iran advocating for an atomic arsenal.
"Israel's strikes set Iran back technically, but politically the strikes are pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapons," she said.
anb/sr/djt/rmb
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hill
11 minutes ago
- The Hill
Iran, Israel exchange missiles, drone strikes in latest escalation
Iran and Israel have exchanged ballistic missiles and drone strikes in the latest escalation between the two longtime foes, continuing attacks as the international community hopes for the situation to de-escalate. In its barrage of strikes on Saturday, the Israeli military reportedly targeted Iran's major energy facilities and Tehran's expanding nuclear program. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed it had completed strikes on Iran's Ministry of Defense headquarters, the 'headquarters of the SPND nuclear project' and other targets, 'which advanced the Iranian regime's efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon and where the Iranian regime hid its nuclear archive.' Israeli military struck the Shahran depot, The New York Times reported, citing Iran's oil ministry. Israel also struck the Shahr Rey oil refinery, according to Iran's state media. 'According to initial reports, the fuel levels in both tanks were not high, and the situation is fully under control,' the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Saturday. IDF's drone hit the world's biggest natural gas field, South Pars, located in the Persian Gulf, according to Iran's state media. The ownership is shared between Iran and Qatar. Israeli air defense systems were intercepting Iranian missiles. The death toll from Iranian ballistic missiles and drone strikes in Israel went up to seven. Three women were killed in Western Galilee, Israel's northwest corner, after a rocket strike hit near a residential building, according to Magen David Adom, the Jewish State's national emergency service. In central Israel, one woman in her 60s passed away. The conflict started on Thursday night when Israel launched a heavy barrage of strikes on Iran, targeting the country's nuclear program and taking out several top Iranian generals. The Israeli attack also killed dozens of Iranian nuclear scientists. Iran retaliated by launching a series of ballistic missiles that were seen hitting major population centers, including Tel Aviv. The United States said that it was not involved in Israel's initial attack on Iran Thursday night, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The U.S. military was assisting Israel in shooting down missiles once Iran retaliated on Friday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a meeting with his security cabinet on Saturday as Jerusalem and Tehran exchanged strikes, according to a photo released by the Israeli government.
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
Michael Goodwin: Democrats with Trump Derangement Syndrome are undercutting Israel
One way to look at the first six months of Donald Trump's second term is that the wily president has managed to trick Democrats into fighting common sense and adopting bizarre and unpopular positions. Consider how he lured them into wildly protecting waste, fraud and abuse in the budget simply by having a plan to cut it. Then the president, by keeping a campaign promise, fooled his opponents into engaging in violent riots and trying to block his deportations of illegal immigrants, including those who had committed serious crimes here. And now comes Trump trick No. 3, which is unfolding before our eyes. Because the president's support for Israel is ironclad in its war with Iran, those infected by Trump Derangement Syndrome are reflexively pulling away from the Jewish nation. Already there are signs that Dems and their media handmaidens are moving toward condemning Israel for daring to protect itself from Iranian aggression. The left's budding resistance is camouflaged in squishy, both-sidesism mush. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries began by saying that 'Iran should never be allowed to become nuclear capable,' but quickly called for 'a reduction in hostilities.' 'I'm hopeful that cooler heads will prevail in the Middle East and the situation is de-escalated,' Jeffries told MSNBC. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the doofus Dems thought was veep-ready, addressed the initial Israeli strike by bemoaning that America is no longer a 'neutral arbitrator' and added: 'Who is the voice in the world that can negotiate some type of agreement and hold the moral authority? It might be the Chinese.' His fellow Minnesotan, Rep. Ilhan Omar, chimed in with her usual antisemitic dog-whistles. 'Israel knows America will do whatever they want and feels confident about their ability to get into war and have the American government back them up,' she posted. She also insisted Americans should be ready to 'either see their tax dollars being spent on weapons supplies to Israel or be dragged into war with Iran.' Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy plowed similar ground when he bizarrely insisted Israel's attack 'was clearly intended to scuttle the Trump Administration's negotiations with Iran, and risks a regional war that will likely be catastrophic for America.' Amid all the crazy talk on the left, there are a few voices of sanity. One is Sen. John Fetterman, with the Pennsylvania Dem telling Jewish Insider he was shocked by his party pals' views. 'It was just astonishing to see colleagues criticizing these things. It's like, do you think you can negotiate with that regime? Do you think you want to run that scenario and allow them to acquire 1,000 pounds of weapons-grade uranium?' 'I can't understand, I can't even begin to understand that,' Fetterman said. Exceptions to the rule In the same vein, Bronx Congressman Ritchie Torres scoffed at an article in The Economist that doubts Iran was actually racing toward a nuke. Noting that the mullahs expanded their stockpile of 60% enriched uranium by 50% — a level far beyond any plausible civilian use, Torres writes on X that 'To cast doubt on Iran's nuclear ambitions at this point requires not just skepticism, but a willful suspension of one's functioning cerebral cortex.' Unfortunately, Fetterman and Torres are exceptions. For the vast majority of Dems, including those with press passes, the rule that Trump must be relentlessly resisted is forcing them into a corner that looks and sounds like a political loony bin. It's not a new phenomenon, but the shocking thing is that neither his second election nor the seriousness of America's problems at home and abroad have cured their derangement. Instead of being selective in their opposition to Trump, they are embracing their madness across the board with increasing intensity. Whatever he's for, they instantly and mindlessly are against. The Iran nuke issue is an especially strange example. As Fetterman and Torres note, the criticism of Israel ignores the crucial point: Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon, has hidden its enrichment facilities for years and lied to UN inspectors. On its face, that would be troubling enough. But the most egregious element is that Iran has pledged not only to develop a nuke — but to use it on Israel. Keep up with today's most important news Stay up on the very latest with Evening Update. Thanks for signing up! Enter your email address Please provide a valid email address. By clicking above you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Never miss a story. Check out more newsletters An enemy of the US The quivering Dems presumably are saving their full support of Israel for the day after it gets nuked. Then they'll wail and somehow blame Trump. Fortunately, the Jewish state is not in the mood for suicide and so it struck first, hitting enrichment facilities, degrading weapons systems and taking out the military leadership along with top scientists. The refusal of so many on the left to join Trump and back Israel wholeheartedly is all the more absurd when you remember that Iran pledges that after it destroys Israel, which it calls 'the little satan,' it will go after the US, the 'great satan.' That means Israel is attacking a sworn enemy of America, and displaying why it is one of our best and most important allies. Yet still most Dems can't see the moral imperative and national interest in Israel's action. Nor do they understand how the horrible events of Oct. 7 affect Israeli decisionmakers. That was the deadliest day for Jews since the end of the Holocaust, and it would be unforgivable if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others did nothing to stop Iran's race for nukes. Imagine if one of the ballistic missiles that hit Tel Aviv Saturday was carrying a nuclear warhead. That's the nightmare scenario, and it is reason enough to justify the Israeli strikes. Trump gets that, which is why he and Netanyahu adopted a good cop, bad cop routine. The president sincerely wanted Iran to voluntarily give up its nuclear ambitions and tried to make it happen through two months of direct negotiations. At the same time, he warned repeatedly there would be hell to pay if the Ayatollah said no. How much hell now depends on whether the Supreme Leader faces reality and tries to save himself and his regime by making a deal. If he doesn't, it's entirely possible the US, with its unique 30,000-pound buster bombs, will join Israel in obliterating the nuclear sites. Trump's calibrated, forceful stance is a welcome break with Joe Biden's many missteps after the Hamas attack in 2023. Initially, he was completely in Israel's corner, but, faced with criticism from within his party in an election year, Biden began threatening to withhold munitions unless Israel agreed to limit its responses. He even had Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend Israel's military cabinet meetings to decide which Gaza targets Israel could hit. All the while, Biden, who had lifted some of Trump's oil and banking sanctions on Iran, tried to sweet-talk the regime into another weak nuclear pact. Instead, Iran shifted much of the money to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis and kept working on developing the bomb. Thankfully, for both Israel and America, those days of Oval Office weakness are over.
New York Post
2 hours ago
- New York Post
HUGE explosions in Tel Aviv as Iranian missiles rip through city
The Israel-Iran conflict continues as viral footage on social media purports to show Iranian missiles breaking through Israel's Iron Dome air defense system. Not long after the viral clips started gaining traction on X, videos began surfacing of buildings that had been decimated.
