How Trump shifted on Iran under pressure from Israel
By the end of last month, American spy agencies monitoring Israel's military activities and discussions among the country's political leadership had come to a striking conclusion: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was planning for an imminent attack on Iran's nuclear program, with or without the participation of the United States.
Netanyahu had spent more than a decade warning that an overwhelming military assault was necessary before Iran reached the point that it could quickly build a nuclear weapon. Yet he had always backed down after multiple American presidents, fearful of the consequences of another conflagration in the Middle East, told him the US would not assist in an attack.
But this time, the US intelligence assessment was that Netanyahu was preparing not just a limited strike on the nuclear facilities but a far more expansive attack that could imperil the Iranian regime itself – and that he was prepared to go it alone.
The intelligence left President Donald Trump facing difficult choices. He had become invested in a diplomatic push to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions and had already swatted down one attempt by Netanyahu, in April, to convince him that the time was right for a military assault on Iran. During a strained phone call in late May, Trump again warned the Israeli leader against a unilateral attack.
But over the last several weeks, it became increasingly apparent to Trump administration officials that they might not be able to stop Netanyahu this time, according to interviews with key players in the administration's deliberations over how to respond and others familiar with their thinking. At the same time, Trump was getting impatient with Iran.
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Contrary to Israeli claims, senior administration officials were unaware of any new intelligence showing that the Iranians were rushing to build a nuclear bomb. But seeing they would most likely not be able to deter Netanyahu and were no longer driving events, Trump's advisers weighed alternatives.
At one end of the spectrum was sitting back and doing nothing and then deciding on next steps once it became clear how much Iran had been weakened by the attack. At the other end was joining Israel in the military assault, possibly to the point of forcing regime change in Iran.
Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the US intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran to give immediate concessions at the negotiating table or face continued military onslaught.
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