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Politico

19-03-2025

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In today's edition:
→ A fresh approach to Washington.
→ Pre-election federal nominations heat up.
→ Why a pair of navy vessels are docked for the foreseeable future.
THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING
TONE SHIFT — We detect a softer approach to a belligerent Washington from two of Canada's loudest DONALD TRUMP critics.
As Trump ratcheted up 51st state rhetoric and threatened layers of tariffs earlier this month, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD channeled coast-to-coast-to-coast anger with blistering responses that blanketed American cable news.
As MARK CARNEY campaigned for his party's leadership — and the keys to the Prime Minister's Office — he let loose a similarly sharp tongue.
— That was then: The day before punishing across-the-board tariffs were set to come into effect, Ford unleashed on his American opponents.
'If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything, including cut off their energy with a smile on my face,' Ford told reporters. 'They rely on our energy, they need to feel the pain. They want to come at us hard, we're going to come back twice as hard.'
→ This is now: Speaking Tuesday, following last week's Washington meeting with Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK, Ford tested out fresh spin on the U.S. file.
'I'd kind of flip this around. What a compliment. We'll never be a 51st state. Canada's not for sale. But isn't it nice that someone thinks we have the greatest country in the world and they want access? My simple answer to that is, you want access? Let's build an Am-Can fortress.'
— Further reading: The Toronto Star's ROBERT BENZIE on Ford's new approach.
— That was then, part deux: When Carney won the Liberal leadership, he warned of 'dark days brought on by a country we can no longer trust.' Trump, he said, 'thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer.'
→ This is now: At a brief stop in Iqaluit on Tuesday, Carney took questions from reporters. The New York Times' MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF asked the prime minister if he shared JUSTIN TRUDEAU's view that Trump really does want to absorb Canada.
Here was his full, chunky response:
'First and foremost, I think what President Trump wants — he wants several things. One is he wants to end the fentanyl crisis in the United States. I respect that. He wants good high-paying jobs in America. He wants more investment in America. He wants repatriation of many American industries and firms to the United States. And I fully respect that. I think he will respect that as prime minister of Canada, I want to end the fentanyl crisis in Canada. I want to grow good high-paying jobs in Canada. And of course I want to protect, with my colleagues, and reaffirm and reinforce our sovereignty of all of Canada.'
→ Follow-up: Stevis-Gridneff asked if that all added up to a rhetorical softening. Carney replied: 'I wouldn't necessarily have that characterization.'
— What's next: Out with the bad cops, in with the good?
INFLATION — Statistics Canada's monthly consumer price index (CPI) data drop got economists' attention. February prices were up 2.6 percent over the same month in 2024 — still within the Bank of Canada's target range, but nearing the upper bound of 3 percent.
StatsCan credited the mid-month end of the federal tax holiday — remember that? — for 'notable upward pressure to prices.' Taxes paid are, in fact, included in the CPI. Higher restaurant tabs contributed more than anything else to the all-items CPI's 'acceleration.'
— What, me worry? Our handy 2025 Mega-Calendar reminds us the federal stats agency's next inflation data will drop April 15 — likely smackdab in the middle of a campaign, just a day before the Bank of Canada's April 16 interest rate announcement.
Speculation is already underway. The Toronto Star's JOSH RUBIN wonders if StatsCan's findings are complicating TIFF MACKLEM's near-future plans for rates.
— Factors to watch: RBC economists ABBEY XU and CLAIRE FAN point out February's CPI wasn't yet reacting to cross-border tariffs. But they also note the zeroed-out consumer carbon price will reduce energy-related prices, starting in April — the same time households receive their final carbon rebate checks.
Yes, those will also turn up mid-campaign.
PREMIERS — Prime Minister CARNEY promised on the leadership campaign trail to host a premiers' meeting ASAP after his swearing-in.
— The pledge: 'My government will immediately convene a First Ministers' meeting to work with provinces and territories to identify national investment priorities to be fast-tracked and to remove interprovincial trade barriers so Canadians can trade freely. These discussions should start from the principles of barrier-free trade, mutual recognition of standards and substituted compliance with regulations.'
— Coming soon: Multiple outlets are reporting a virtual FMM will go down this Friday — just two days before a possible election call. The Globe's STEPHANIE LEVITZ reported earlier this week that the meeting will — no surprise here — focus on Canada-U.S. trade.
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will meet at 1 p.m. with the Canada-U.S. relations council appointed by JUSTIN TRUDEAU. At 3 p.m., he'll meet with the Cabinet committee on the same file.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in Sudbury, Ontario, where he will hold a 9:30 a.m. press conference before headlining a 6:30 p.m. fundraiser at a Radisson Hotel.
— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.
— Green Party co-leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend MP MIKE MORRICE's campaign launch in Kitchener Centre at 7 p.m. Ontario Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER and Kitchener Centre MPP AISLINN CLANCY will also attend … Co-leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT has private meetings in Montreal.
DULY NOTED
— Ontario Premier DOUG FORD's Cabinet will be sworn in at a 2 p.m. ceremony at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto.
PAPER TRAIL
SHIP SHAPE — As Canada's navy struggles through persistent recruitment woes, sailors are transferring to the next generation of ships. Now, a couple of veterans of the fleet are feeling a little lonesome at the dock.
— Lying dormant: The navy's Kingston-class of coastal defense vessels are gradually entering the end of their era. They were built in the 1990s and occasionally make headlines for anti-drug trafficking missions in the Caribbean.
HMCS Whitehorse hasn't recorded any movement on vessel tracking services since Sept. 8, 2021. A little over a year later, HMCS Saskatoon pinged its most recent location. Both ships are docked with the western fleet in Esquimalt, British Columbia.
STEFFAN WATKINS, an Ottawa-based research consultant, tracks the location of every naval vessel — an eye on everything from seafaring frigates to harbor-roaming tugboats.
Watkins has charted the weekly movements, or lack thereof, across the navy. By his count, only three of 12 Kingston-class ships have moved since February. Silence from the rest.
— The official word: The navy says Whitehorse and Saskatoon are uncrewed as part of a transition to the next generation of ships. Their crew are bound for brand new Arctic and offshore patrol vessels and replenishment ships — the first of which is scheduled for sea trials later this year.
→ Nothing to see here: The spokesperson called the transfer of crew to new ships a 'long-established approach.'
They added that none of the navy's other vessels is uncrewed 'for these reasons,' though 'it remains commonplace for any class of warship to be uncrewed should training, operational or maintenance imperatives demand.'
— More to the story: Playbook asked DAVID PERRY, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, for his take.
'The navy had to make some difficult choices about exactly how much of the current fleet they could keep operating as they're introducing new stuff,' he tells Playbook.
Crewing a ship is made even more difficult, he says, thanks to personnel shortfalls in 'a couple of key military trades that you need to actually be able to put a ship to sea.'
→ tl;dr: More sailors would make the navy's life a heck of a lot easier.
— Look to the skies: Perry said Canada's air force will also face massive fleet turnover as aviators get trained on incoming F-35 fighter jets (and perhaps additional aircraft), P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and new SkyGuardian drones.
He predicts all that time in training mode will reduce the air force's ability to deploy overseas.
'Basically, we're going to only be focused on doing Canadian and continental fighter missions,' he says — core duties patrolling the continent and protecting sovereignty.
Not so much with, say, air policing missions in Eastern Europe: 'I don't think we're going to be doing that.'
— Further reading: Only 40 percent of air force inventory ready for action as Canada rethinks its F-35 contract, reports CBC's MURRAY BREWSTER.
NOMINATION WATCH
— We bring fresh numbers of nominated candidates from two parties who didn't report back when we asked on Monday. Conservatives sit at 275. Liberals trail at 185.
— 'Toronto Today' host GREG BRADY is leaving his show to seek candidacy for the Conservative Party in the riding of Ajax.
— Former city councilor SCOTT ANDERSON will rep the Conservatives in Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee, British Columbia.
— Liberals posted two nomination meetings set for March 21: Bourassa, Quebec, where ABDELHAQ SARI is a candidate; and Cape Spear, Newfoundland and Labrador, where candidates include TOM OSBORNE, NICOLE KIELEY and VICTORIA BELBIN.
— DENISE COULONVAL was removed as Liberal candidate in Beauport—Limoilou, Quebec — 'in accordance with our national nomination rules,' says a party spokesperson.
— ALANA HIRTLE wants to nab the Liberal nod in Cumberland-Colchester, Nova Scotia.
— Thirteen Conservative hopefuls expressed interest in the Nipissing-Timiskaming nomination following CASSIDY VILLENEUVE's resignation on March 9.
— Liberals acclaimed candidates in four Quebec ridings: Mirabel (ROBERT FLEMING), Thérèse-De Blainville (MADELEINE CHENETTE), Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (former MP LINDA LAPOINTE) and Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot–Acton (MÉLANIE BEDARD).
— Add another LPC candidate: LISA HARRIS in Miramichi-Grand Lake, New Brunswick.
— The Liberals acclaimed a candidate — KENT MACDONALD — who would take the mantle from longtime MP LAWRENCE MACAULAY in Cardigan, Prince Edward Island.
MEDIA ROOM
— DONALD TRUMP's latest musings on PIERRE POILIEVRE: 'The Conservative that's running is stupidly no friend of mine, I don't know him but he's said negative things so when he says negative things I don't care, I actually think it's easier to deal with a Liberal.'
That's from the president's sitdown with Fox News' LAURA INGRAHAM where he also repeated his 51st state rhetoric.
— Also Tuesday, Trump, in a social media post, described his call with the Russian president as 'a very good and productive one,' ELI STOKOLS and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA report.
— Conservative campaign boss JENNI BYRNE told newsrooms Tuesday that they won't be allowed on the leader's tour campaign plane — a departure from the party's long-standing practice. 'There's no question that if you do this, it gives the party doing it more control,' Carleton University journalism professor emeritus CHRISTOPHER WADDELL told the Globe.
— KEVIN LYNCH and PAUL DEEGAN share 6 questions candidates should be prepared to answer in a federal campaign. First, 'how will you deal with Trump personally?'
— The anecdata is real. CBC's JOHN PAUL TASKER reports that Canadians took nearly 500,000 fewer cross-border trips last month compared to the same month in 2024 — levels not seen since Covid times.
— The New York Times reports on President Trump's message to U.S. auto executives: Everyone needs to buckle up.
PROZONE
For POLITICO subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD: Trade war puts defense dollars in play.
From trade reporter ARI HAWKINS: Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT suggested Trump may not impose immediate tariffs on U.S. trading partners April 2, as the president has repeatedly promised to do. Read the latest.
In other news for Pro readers:
— Trump officials say income rose during his first term thanks to tariffs. Economists doubt there's a link.
— USDA reduces requirements for worker safety data at meat plants.
— USTR taps Business Roundtable trade VP as new general counsel.
— EU risks more Trump tariffs in looming Big Tech crackdown.
— MARK RUTTE is an odd man out in the 'new NATO.'
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to former MP DAVID TILSON, Hill Times editor KATE MALLOY and writer/podcaster JENN JEFFERYS.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send details our way.
Spotted: Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE, on the horn with PM Carney.
Conservative MP MICHAEL BARRETT, on the Hill, answering questions only in English.
Noted: Cabinet committee listings, which disappeared for a time from the prime minister's website on Monday, were restored online.
Movers and shakers: MATTHIEU PERROTIN is an issues adviser in the Prime Minister's Office.
The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives welcomes former NDP MP PEGGY NASH as new executive director … KEITH DE SILVIA-LEGAULT is the fundraising and outreach coordinator for the federal New Democrats in the upcoming election.
Media mentions: AMY DEMPSEY RAVEN joins the Toronto Star's investigations team … MARY VALLIS COWAN is the editor-in-chief of Yahoo News' Canada operation … KIM HONEY is CEO and EIC of The Conversation Canada … TIM BOLEN and DINA PUGLIESE-MIRKOVICH are new co-hosts on the revamped 'Breakfast Television'.
TRIVIA
Tuesday's answer: Comedian TOM GREEN took MONICA LEWINSKY fabric shopping with him in Ottawa, just over 25 years ago.
Props to BARRY J. MCLOUGHLIN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, CHRISTINA LEADLAY, SARA MAY, JIM CAMPBELL, SUSAN MURRAY, AMY CASTLE, ANDRÉ BRISEBOIS, PAUL PARK, MICHAEL POWELL, DAVID LJUNGGREN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, PATRICK DION and LAURA JARVIS.
Wednesday's question: Which Canadian prime minister hosted séances to communicate with the spirits of LEONARDO DA VINCI, WILFRID LAURIER and THEODORE ROOSEVELT?
Answers to [e-mail]
Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MIKE BLANCHFIELD.