Why Russia is unlikely to let the Vatican mediate Ukraine peace talks

Euronews

3 days ago

The prospect of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine being mediated by Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican is unlikely due to the influence of Russian Orthodoxy and Moscow's mistrust of the Catholic Church, according to political analysts and religious figures.
Shortly after being elected, Pope Leo XIV said that the Vatican could act as a mediator in global conflicts, without specifically mentioning Russia's war against Ukraine.
He later confirmed it to Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, saying the Vatican was indeed willing to host the next round of negotiations to try to put an end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
After Kyiv and Moscow's direct talks in Istanbul yielded almost no progress, US President Donald Trump also mentioned the Vatican as a possible venue, following a conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
According to a recent statement by the Vatican's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the pontiff plans to "if necessary, provide the Vatican, the Holy See, as a direct meeting (place) between the two sides".
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the Vatican earlier this month and met Pope Leo XIV following his inaugural Mass. Zelenskyy is in favour of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow being held at the Vatican, Ukraine's foreign minister confirmed to Euronews last week.
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised the idea, saying that it would be "a bit inelegant for Orthodox countries to use a Catholic platform" for talks.
Moscow's wariness of mediation by the Vatican predates Pope Leo XIV, according to Pasquale Ferrara, the director general for political affairs at Italy's foreign ministry, and a professor of diplomacy and negotiation at the LUISS University in Rome.
"I don't think Putin sees the Vatican as having the necessary neutrality," Ferrara told Euronews. "This scepticism existed even under Pope Francis and is rooted in the long-standing coolness between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church."
That tension has deep historical roots, stretching back to the Great Schism of 1054, when Christianity split into the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches.
In August 2024, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill banning activities of religious organisations connected to Russia and those that have administrative centres there.
The legislation specifically targets the activities of the Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), which is legally subordinate to the Russian Orthodox Church, the leading church in Russia and a close ally of the Kremlin, fully supporting Moscow's war in Ukraine.
All UOC-MP communities were given nine months to fully break ties with the Russian church.
Ukraine's Security Service accused a number of clergymen of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate of collaborating with the Krmelin and justifying Russian aggression. Over 100 UOC-MP clergy members have come under criminal investigation since the outbreak of the full-scale war, the Security Service of Ukraine said.
Once a dominant religious group in Ukraine, the past few years have seen many Moscow Patriarchate communities switch allegiance to independent churches, namely the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate.
Founded in 2018 as an institution representing Ukrainian Orthodoxy fully independent of Moscow, it was granted the tomos of autocephaly — a document signifying canonical independence — by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, the most senior priest of the Eastern Orthodox Church.
The Moscow Patriarchate hasn't recognised the decision and later tried to portray the Ukrainian government's steps against the Moscow-linked church as "persecution of Christians."
The head of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), Patriarch Kirill, has been an ardent supporter of the war and a vital ally for Putin.
Patriarch Kirill's vocal support for Putin's war has drawn criticism from the likes of Pope Francis and was dubbed a 'heresy' by other religious authorities.
Dubbed the Tobacco Metropolitan for his alleged profiteering off of duty-free cigarettes in the 1990s, Patriarch Kirill fiercely maintains his pro-war stance, blaming the invasion on "gay parades" and making unproven claims that Ukrainians have been "exterminating" Russian civilians in the Donbas.
In early May 2022, attempts by Brussels to add Kirill to the EU's list of sanctioned Russian nationals led to tensions among European leaders after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the move.
The ROC's stance has seen some Orthodox Churches cut ties with the Moscow Patriarchate, including one in Amsterdam.
Bishop Hlib Lonchyna, a Ukrainian Greek Catholic prelate, expressed his doubt about Russia's willingness to genuinely engage in peace talks or accept the Vatican as a mediator.
"Pope Leo XIV has no influence over Russia. They don't recognise our Church at all," he told Euronews.
The Vatican has a long history of mediating wars, conflicts and political disagreements, although it tends to work behind the scenes and avoid publicising its efforts.
One of its greatest achievements in recent history was facilitating the talks between the US and Cuba in 2014 that ultimately resulted in the resumption of diplomatic relations.
The Vatican has also often hosted far less secret diplomatic initiatives, such as when it brought together the rival leaders of war-torn South Sudan in 2019. The encounter was made famous by the image of Pope Francis kissing their feet to beg them to make peace.
However, for the Kremlin, the idea of Pope Leo XIV mediating peace talks may be seen as an extension of the Catholic Church's Western legacy, according to Ferrara of the Italian foreign ministry.
Ultimately, successful mediation depends less on the identity of the mediator and more on the parties' genuine willingness to seek peace, he said.
"Russia has not shown the kinds of signals that would indicate a real desire to negotiate," Ferrara added.
On 16 May, Russia and Ukraine held their first face-to-face discussions since shortly after Moscow's full-scale invasion. During the talks in Istanbul, the two sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each, in what is the biggest such swap to date.
The discussions delivered no wider breakthrough on resolving Russia's war, and no further direct peace talks are scheduled, the Kremlin said last week. Moscow has had no issues with Ankara playing the host.
Nonetheless, Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga said last week that he believed that the Vatican could still act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
"It is very difficult, yes, but everything is possible with Pope Leo XIV — he enjoys the trust of global leaders," he told the Italian newspaper La Stampa.
Ferrara also said that the Vatican may have a role to play, despite the challenges.
"We should not be too sceptical about the constructive role religion can play in building a new international order," he added.
Spain has failed to obtain the necessary unanimity to elevate Catalan, Galician and Basque into official languages of the European Union, as several member states raised concerns over the administrative and legal implications of such an unprecedented move.
The result materialised during a meeting of EU affairs ministers on Tuesday, where the issue was scheduled to be put to a formal vote. As the debate progressed, it became evident that the reservations in the room were enough to prevent consensus.
"There was a large number of countries willing to support (the request), but there was a minority who asked for more time, and we decided to grant it," said Pilar Alegría, the chief spokesperson of the central government in Madrid.
"We're going to continue working and discussing."
The request dates back to 2023, when Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured the support of Catalan separatist lawmakers, who hold a small but crucial number of seats in the Spanish parliament, to form a minority government. As part of the investiture deal, Sánchez promised to bring to Brussels a proposal to amend Regulation 1/1958 and turn Catalan, Galician and Basque into official EU languages.
The backing of regional parties has become more pressing after Sánchez unveiled a new budget with a steep hike in defence spending that needs the parliament's blessing.
As of today, Regulation 1/1958 recognises 24 languages. The designation implies the translation of every legal act, including the daily publication of the official journal, and real-time interpretation during debates in the EU Council and the European Parliament.
A first attempt to change the regulation was swiftly rejected in September 2023, despite Madrid offering to pay in full for the additional expenses.
The fiasco prompted months of behind-the-scenes negotiations to convince the reluctant countries and secure the required unanimity.
Spain asked for the issue to be put on the agenda on Tuesday morning, even if the arithmetic looked very uncertain in the lead up to the ministerial meeting.
On arrival in Brussels, Joakim Strand, Finland's minister for European affairs, cast doubt over the request, arguing the issue was not "mature yet".
"There are still some concerns that have been (raised) also by the Council legal service, and I think that's something we need to take very seriously," Strand told reporters.
"I think linguistic diversity is important, and we're always constructive, and we want to continue the discussion."
Sweden's Jessica Rosencrantz and Austria's Claudia Plakolm also highlighted the importance of respecting the EU's diversity, but echoed the concerns about the financial and legal implications that the triple designation would entail.
The European Commission previously estimated the cost to be €132 million per year, with Catalan, Galician and Basque costing €44 million each. The assessment was preliminary, based on the past experience with Gaelic in Ireland.
Spain's domestic settlement on language is unique in Europe.
Under the country's constitution, enacted in 1978 after the end of the military dictatorship, the three languages gained co-official status in the regions where they are spoken and enjoy the same legal standing as Castilian.
Catalan is spoken by more than 9 million people across Catalonia, Valencia and the Balearic Islands, as well as Andorra. Galician is a distant second, with around 2.5 million speakers in Galicia, the northwest corner of Spain. The Basque language or Euskara, which does not originate from Latin, is spoken by over 750,000 people in the Basque Country and Navarra, and also in the bordering areas of southern France.
"This is not a matter of translating more or less documents, it is a matter of respecting the identity of European citizens," Catalonia President Salvador Illa told Euronews in February during an official visit to Brussels.
"This is not, let's say, a political issue, or a political demand. I would put it from another angle. This is a fair measure from a linguistic point of view. There are 20 million citizens who speak these official languages."