Guy on Rocks: Field season fires for Canadian copper
Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Guy on Rocks' is a Stockhead series looking at the significant happenings of the resources market each week. Former geologist and experienced stockbroker Guy Le Page, director, and responsible executive at Perth-based financial services provider RM Corporate Finance, shares his high conviction views on the market and his 'hot stocks to watch'.
This week, Guy looks at a couple of Canadian copper players in White Cliff Minerals (ASX:WCN) and Somerset Minerals (ASX:SMM) and their high-grade prospects as an exciting field season begins in earnest.
While White Cliff Minerals did not collaborate on this video, they are a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.
The views, information, or opinions expressed in this video are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article. Viewers should obtain independent advice based on their own circumstances before making any financial decisions.
Originally published as Guy on Rocks: Field season fires for Canadian copper
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Herald Sun
2 hours ago
- Herald Sun
The lessons from IDP Education's week from Hell
The student recruiter has been hit by the migration backlash not just here, but in Canada, the UK and the US Other listed colleges are tweaking their business models to focus on domestic students While there's no end of the pain in sight, some brokers reckon IDP Education is a buy at its marked-down valuation It's not unusual for a small cap stock to decline 50% in value or more in one day. But when the top 200 stock IDP Education (ASX:IEL) achieved that this week – erasing more than $1 billion of market value – it was a case of 'class, take note'. The dramatic plunge came after the overseas student wrangler's confession on Tuesday that full-year revenue and earnings would plummet on the back of visa crackdowns. The stock has lost an astonishing 75% over the last year. Arguably the downgrade was years in the making, given the quality issues besetting both the tertiary and vocational sectors for some years. Still, investors were shocked by the scale of the revision or maybe they just hadn't done their homework. IDP guided to a 28-30% decline in student placement volumes, with its language testing arm likely to fall by 18-20%. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax (ebit) are expected at $115-125 million, a circa 50% year-on-year decline and well shy of market expectations of $166 million. Trump-like 'regulation by fiat' The visa crackdown was contained in a bill that the old Parliament did not pass, but government went ahead via a Trump-style Ministerial Directive (MD107). The measure means visa applications are processed on the perceived risk of the education provider and the student's country of origin. Dubbed by college operator Academies Australasia (ASX:AKG) as 'regulation by fiat', the measure compounds the problems of providers with high visa rejection rates. The reasons for the knock-backs are likely to be beyond the colleges' control. Nowhere to hide as migration policies bite IDP's problems don't start and end at home. Half-owned by sandstone universities, the company started out as a local uni recruiter but now touts for colleges in the UK, Canada and the US. Half of the company's revenue deriving from English language testing and teaching. The UK is even more zealous on reducing migration, as is Canada given the backdrop of the recent close election. We'll simply call US a no-go zone, given Trump's order to block Harvard University from admitting international students. Heeding the lessons IDP is not the only ASX-listed, overseas student focused education play feeling the pinch. It's a case of accepting the new reality and adapting. The amalgam of Icollege and Redhill Education, NextEd Group (ASX:NXD) reported a $2.2 million first half loss, amid a 21% revenue decline (to $47 million). However Nexted offset some of the impact of a 52% English language services decline with increased international vocation enrolment. The aforementioned Academies managed to grow half year revenue by 2.8% (to $23.9 million). The company also narrowed a previous $7.5 million loss to a $958,000 deficit. Operator of the Ikon (tertiary) and ALG (vocational) colleges, EDU Holdings (ASX:EDU) gets a gold star by doubling calendar 2024 revenue to $42 million. The company also managed a $2.6 million profit after three years of losses. Gary Burg told last month's AGM the impact of the visa changes remained unclear and the company was focusing on the domestic student market. A free kick of the 'political football'? Despite the IDP sell down there's still a country mile between its $1 billion market cap and the circa $20-40 million valuation ascribed to the other providers. As with all harsh sell-offs, have investors have over-reacted? Broker UBS contends IDP's business model is unbroken and the company 'remains a high-quality business in challenging conditions'. The firm rates the stock a 'buy' with a price target of $4.95, implying around 40% of upside. IDP is undertaking a detailed business review, with an update promised at its August full-year results. At Academies' AGM last year, acting chairman Chiang Meng Heng decried the sector being turned into a political Sherrin. 'Certain comments being bandied about smack of populism, rather than carefully considered positions that are good for the country,' he said. 'The air may not clear until after the federal election.' More than a month after the poll, clarity awaits. Originally published as Criterion: IDP Education's share plunge is a harsh lesson for the overseas student industry
The Advertiser
3 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Japanese company's moon lander 'likely to have crashed'
Japanese company ispace says its uncrewed moon lander has likely crashed onto the moon's surface during its lunar touchdown attempt, marking another failure two years after its unsuccessful inaugural mission. Tokyo-based ispace had hoped to join US firms Intuitive Machines and Firefly Aerospace as companies that have accomplished commercial landings amid a global race for the moon which includes state-run missions from China and India. A successful mission would have made ispace the first company outside the US to achieve a moon landing. Resilience, ispace's second lunar lander, could not decelerate fast enough as it approached the moon, and the company has not been able to communicate with the spacecraft after a likely hard landing, ispace said in a statement on Friday. The company's livestream of the attempted landing showed Resilience's flight data was lost less than two minutes before the planned touchdown time earlier on Friday. The lander had targeted Mare Frigoris, a basaltic plain about 900km from the moon's north pole, and was on an hour-long descent from lunar orbit. A room of more than 500 ispace employees, shareholders, sponsors and government officials abruptly grew silent during a public viewing event at mission partner Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in the wee hours in Tokyo. In 2023, ispace's first lander crashed into the moon's surface due to inaccurate recognition of its altitude. Software remedies have been implemented, while the hardware design is mostly unchanged in Resilience, the company has said. Resilience was carrying a four-wheeled rover built by ispace's Luxembourg subsidiary and five external payloads, including scientific instruments from Japanese firms and a Taiwanese university. If the landing had been successful, the 2.3m-high lander and the microwave-sized rover would have begun 14 days of planned exploration activities, including capturing images of regolith, the moon's fine-grained surface material, on a contract with US space agency NASA. Japan in 2024 became the world's fifth country to achieve a soft lunar landing after the former Soviet Union, the United States, China and India, when the national Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency achieved the touchdown of its SLIM lander, although in a toppled position. Japanese company ispace says its uncrewed moon lander has likely crashed onto the moon's surface during its lunar touchdown attempt, marking another failure two years after its unsuccessful inaugural mission. Tokyo-based ispace had hoped to join US firms Intuitive Machines and Firefly Aerospace as companies that have accomplished commercial landings amid a global race for the moon which includes state-run missions from China and India. A successful mission would have made ispace the first company outside the US to achieve a moon landing. Resilience, ispace's second lunar lander, could not decelerate fast enough as it approached the moon, and the company has not been able to communicate with the spacecraft after a likely hard landing, ispace said in a statement on Friday. The company's livestream of the attempted landing showed Resilience's flight data was lost less than two minutes before the planned touchdown time earlier on Friday. The lander had targeted Mare Frigoris, a basaltic plain about 900km from the moon's north pole, and was on an hour-long descent from lunar orbit. A room of more than 500 ispace employees, shareholders, sponsors and government officials abruptly grew silent during a public viewing event at mission partner Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in the wee hours in Tokyo. In 2023, ispace's first lander crashed into the moon's surface due to inaccurate recognition of its altitude. Software remedies have been implemented, while the hardware design is mostly unchanged in Resilience, the company has said. Resilience was carrying a four-wheeled rover built by ispace's Luxembourg subsidiary and five external payloads, including scientific instruments from Japanese firms and a Taiwanese university. If the landing had been successful, the 2.3m-high lander and the microwave-sized rover would have begun 14 days of planned exploration activities, including capturing images of regolith, the moon's fine-grained surface material, on a contract with US space agency NASA. Japan in 2024 became the world's fifth country to achieve a soft lunar landing after the former Soviet Union, the United States, China and India, when the national Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency achieved the touchdown of its SLIM lander, although in a toppled position. Japanese company ispace says its uncrewed moon lander has likely crashed onto the moon's surface during its lunar touchdown attempt, marking another failure two years after its unsuccessful inaugural mission. Tokyo-based ispace had hoped to join US firms Intuitive Machines and Firefly Aerospace as companies that have accomplished commercial landings amid a global race for the moon which includes state-run missions from China and India. A successful mission would have made ispace the first company outside the US to achieve a moon landing. Resilience, ispace's second lunar lander, could not decelerate fast enough as it approached the moon, and the company has not been able to communicate with the spacecraft after a likely hard landing, ispace said in a statement on Friday. The company's livestream of the attempted landing showed Resilience's flight data was lost less than two minutes before the planned touchdown time earlier on Friday. The lander had targeted Mare Frigoris, a basaltic plain about 900km from the moon's north pole, and was on an hour-long descent from lunar orbit. A room of more than 500 ispace employees, shareholders, sponsors and government officials abruptly grew silent during a public viewing event at mission partner Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in the wee hours in Tokyo. In 2023, ispace's first lander crashed into the moon's surface due to inaccurate recognition of its altitude. Software remedies have been implemented, while the hardware design is mostly unchanged in Resilience, the company has said. Resilience was carrying a four-wheeled rover built by ispace's Luxembourg subsidiary and five external payloads, including scientific instruments from Japanese firms and a Taiwanese university. If the landing had been successful, the 2.3m-high lander and the microwave-sized rover would have begun 14 days of planned exploration activities, including capturing images of regolith, the moon's fine-grained surface material, on a contract with US space agency NASA. Japan in 2024 became the world's fifth country to achieve a soft lunar landing after the former Soviet Union, the United States, China and India, when the national Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency achieved the touchdown of its SLIM lander, although in a toppled position. Japanese company ispace says its uncrewed moon lander has likely crashed onto the moon's surface during its lunar touchdown attempt, marking another failure two years after its unsuccessful inaugural mission. Tokyo-based ispace had hoped to join US firms Intuitive Machines and Firefly Aerospace as companies that have accomplished commercial landings amid a global race for the moon which includes state-run missions from China and India. A successful mission would have made ispace the first company outside the US to achieve a moon landing. Resilience, ispace's second lunar lander, could not decelerate fast enough as it approached the moon, and the company has not been able to communicate with the spacecraft after a likely hard landing, ispace said in a statement on Friday. The company's livestream of the attempted landing showed Resilience's flight data was lost less than two minutes before the planned touchdown time earlier on Friday. The lander had targeted Mare Frigoris, a basaltic plain about 900km from the moon's north pole, and was on an hour-long descent from lunar orbit. A room of more than 500 ispace employees, shareholders, sponsors and government officials abruptly grew silent during a public viewing event at mission partner Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in the wee hours in Tokyo. In 2023, ispace's first lander crashed into the moon's surface due to inaccurate recognition of its altitude. Software remedies have been implemented, while the hardware design is mostly unchanged in Resilience, the company has said. Resilience was carrying a four-wheeled rover built by ispace's Luxembourg subsidiary and five external payloads, including scientific instruments from Japanese firms and a Taiwanese university. If the landing had been successful, the 2.3m-high lander and the microwave-sized rover would have begun 14 days of planned exploration activities, including capturing images of regolith, the moon's fine-grained surface material, on a contract with US space agency NASA. Japan in 2024 became the world's fifth country to achieve a soft lunar landing after the former Soviet Union, the United States, China and India, when the national Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency achieved the touchdown of its SLIM lander, although in a toppled position.
West Australian
4 hours ago
- West Australian
Superannuation wealth tax ‘a threat' to funding of new unicorns as Escalante moves to mop up VGW
The Federal Government's proposed wealth tax on superannuation has been described as a threat to the emergence of unicorns such as Laurence Escalante's WA-based gaming group Virtual Gaming Worlds. With many investors funding plays such as VGW from their self-managed super funds, the earnings hit on super balances over $3 million is seen potentially depriving start-ups of a key source of development capital. Mr Escalante used millions of dollars raised from hundreds of small and high-net worth backers to build VGW into one of Australia's fastest-growing and most profitable private companies. On Monday, the former financial planner announced a $960m bid to take full ownership of VGW by buying out the 30 per cent of the public, unlisted company he does not own at $5.05 a share from some 700 minority shareholders. One of his early supporters, an investor who is sitting on tens of millions of dollars of profit on VGW shares bought for less than 10 cents apiece, said the Government was 'off the mark' with its proposed move on wealthy superannuants. He and other big minority investors in VGW are mainly invested in the group via their self-managed super funds. 'This Government wants to tax quite heavily the people in the super funds, and that's where these small companies get started,' said the investor, who asked not to be identified. 'There won't be as much money available for start-ups.' Mr Escalante's proposed buyout, launched through his Lance East family office, comes as VGW confronts a major threat to its lucrative operating model from a US regulatory crackdown that is reining in its runaway profits. The group has raked in billions of dollars by using loopholes in US laws banning internet gambling to deliver online 'social' casinos and poker machine games such as Chumba Casino, LuckyLand slots and Global Poker. Under its sweepstakes model, customers buy virtual gold coins that allow them to play VGW's games but have no outside value. However, buyers of most gold coin packages also get bonus 'sweeps coins', which as well as being used to play the games are redeemable for cash in most of the US and Canada. US States are now moving against the group, claiming the games are illegal because they are generating cash winnings for players. Since December, VGW has quit Nevada and Delaware, and flagged its withdrawal from New York, in the face of the pushback. The regulatory crackdown is already hurting earnings, with VGW warning of a 15 per cent hit to its second-half profit. Mr Escalante's opulent lifestyle — he has translated his wealth into a private jet, super cars, luxury boats and swanky properties — and showy and sometimes angry social media posts had already raised doubts about whether he could win over the big institutional shareholders needed to support a stock market listing in the US or Australia. But it is the threat to what has been an enormously successful operating model that has most likely finished off lingering hopes of a float for investors who have been limited to selling stock via an illiquid over-the-counter trading platform. 'It's the model ... the likelihood of regulatory action, which are we starting to see,' a prominent Perth businessman said. While Mr Escalante's 'behaviour and lifestyle doesn't help', despite global stock markets being awash with such 'characters', a listing would have more chance with a 'safer and less vulnerable business model', the businessman said. There is no doubt that Mr Escalante, who founded VGW as a 28-year-old in 2010, has delivered in spades for his investors. The company paid its first dividend — a modest $2.8 million — in early 2019 off the back of a $19.8m profit and $179m of revenue for the December half-year in 2018. COVID-19 lit a fire under the business as uptake of its games in the US soared during lockdowns. Over the past four years, VGW has returned more than $1.3b to its shareholders, with Mr Escalante pocketing the lion's share due to his majority ownership. He will receive a further $200m from the $286m of interim and special dividends set to be paid for the 2025 financial year. VGW's two independent directors have determined that the offer price, which will be reduced by the dividends, recognises the company's value 'after taking into account its medium and longer-term potential and the ongoing risks relating to VGW's business and operating environment'. Mr Escalante's offer was endorsed after an earlier pitch of $3.50 of $4 a share was rejected as too low. However, it still may not be enough to get the buyout across the line, with some long-standing shareholders still reckoning VGW is worth more and disputing the inclusion of the proposed dividends in the offer price. 'A few of the shareholders who have got pretty good holdings feel as if it's an unreasonable offer, they feel as if it should be more,' the VGW shareholder said. The buyout documents are expected to be sent to shareholders by early July, with a vote to be called in August. Mr Escalante was not available for comment this week. Disclosing the buyout offer on Monday, he said it represented 'an efficient opportunity to allow those shareholders looking to monetise their investment for cash to do so'.
