Ukraine Braces for Putin's Retaliation

Newsweek

2 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
A NATO official has echoed President Donald Trump's warning that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will seek revenge for Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia's military airfields.
Following his phone call with the Russian president, Trump said Putin "will have to respond" to the attack on airfields, which Kyiv said damaged 41 aircraft including heavy bombers and A-50 spy planes.
As Trump's envoy has warned the strikes risked escalation in the war, an unnamed NATO official told The Moscow Times that Russia would take "retaliatory actions" against Ukraine for its "Spiderweb" drone operation.
Experts have told Newsweek that, in response, Putin is likely to step up drone and missile attacks.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry by email for comment.
File photo: Russia's President Vladimir Putin sits at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 4, 2025.
File photo: Russia's President Vladimir Putin sits at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 4, 2025.Why It Matters
Ukraine heralded the strikes on Russian airfields as far away as Siberia as a blow to Russia's military capabilities. Pro-Russian Telegram channels have expressed anger at the lack of protection at the sites, but the comments by Trump and his envoy will add to anticipation over what Putin will do in response.
What To Know
Trump said on the social-media platform Truth Social on Wednesday that, during his phone call with Putin, the leaders had discussed Ukraine's attacks on airplanes.
The U.S. president said Putin said "very strongly" that he would have to respond to Kyiv's drone attacks without specifying what this would be nor whether he had urged restraint.
Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, had earlier told Fox News that Ukraine's attack on "part of their national survival system, which is their … nuclear triad," had significantly increased the risk of escalation.
Imagery captured on June 3, 2025, by the U.S. satellite firm Planet shows Russia's Olenya air base, one of five bomber bases targeted by a Ukrainian drone raid on June 1, 2025.
Imagery captured on June 3, 2025, by the U.S. satellite firm Planet shows Russia's Olenya air base, one of five bomber bases targeted by a Ukrainian drone raid on June 1, 2025.
Planet Labs PBC
An alliance official told The Moscow Times before NATO's defense ministers meeting in Brussels that Putin will use the attacks to justify additional heavier strikes and stall negotiations.
Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek that, in response, Russia could launch massive drone attacks on Ukraine, but probably not the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile that Putin has boasted about, nor any nuclear missiles.
Aurélien Colson, from the same institute, told Newsweek that Putin's response will be primarily military, but his options are limited to missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek that Ukraine's attack might slow the massive aerial bombardments of the major Ukrainian cities. However, the only way to bring the Russians to the negotiating table would be to halt their advances on the battlefield, he added.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Wednesday that Putin used his call with Trump, in which they also discussed the train derailments in Russia that Moscow blamed on Kyiv, to portray Ukraine falsely as uninterested in peace and as a bad actor.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields."
A NATO official said to The Moscow Times: "There will certainly be retaliatory actions that Russia will take. And there will be defensive things that Russia will do."
Aurélien Colson, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, said: "(Putin) will probably launch another larger air attack on Ukrainian cities and infrastructures, through missiles and drones," adding that "going nuclear at the tactical level is excluded," due to China's opposition to such a move.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Wednesday: "Putin's statements to Trump are also likely aimed at distracting from Russia's own disinterest in negotiations and continued preparations for a prolonged war effort."
What Happens Next
Amid speculation over how Putin might respond to his worst week of 2025, the Russian president told his senior officials on Wednesday that he was no longer interested in negotiating with Ukraine, saying, "How can we negotiate with those who rely on terror?"
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a political analysis firm focused on Russia, posted on X, formerly Twitter, that Western audiences may view Ukraine's attacks as strengthening Kyiv's negotiating position, but the effect "will likely be the opposite."
Stanovaya said such attacks will only reinforce Putin's determination to dismantle the Ukrainian state and that he will respond "by becoming more hard-line and less compliant."