Storm tracker: Disturbance in Pacific could become tropical depression this weekend
The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday night it is keeping tabs on a disturbance in the Pacific Ocean that is now likely to strengthen into a tropical depression over the weekend.
Hurricane center forecasters said a "broad area of low pressure" located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is producing "disorganized showers and thunderstorms."
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system, according to the hurricane center, and a "tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend" while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
While the 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, the Atlantic season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, May 22, predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
NOAA predicts ‘above average' season in new hurricane outlook
COLUMBUS, Ga. () — NOAA has released their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and predicts an above average season with 13-19 named storms. Of those storms, 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 expected to become major hurricanes which is a category 3 or above. This season is expected to be above average due to a combination of factors such as a neutral ENSO conditions (lack of El Niño or La Niña), warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and increased activity from the West African Monsoon. Hurricane season run from June 1st through November 30th. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Georgia Power says it is ready for ‘above-average' hurricane season
COLUMBUS, Ga. () — Georgia Power says it is prepared for what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says will be an above average hurricane season and is encouraging customers to take time to prepare as well. PREVIOUS COVERAGE: NOAA predicts 'above average' season in new hurricane outlook The power company says it is continuing to invest in the state's power grid by installing smart devices that can be controlled remotely. This allows Georgia Power operations teams to reroute power and isolate issues and results in fewer customers being affected by power outages. Georgia Power is also encouraging customers to take proactive measures to protect their families and homes. RELATED COVERAGE: Emergency Management: Be prepared now before it is too late ahead of the next storm WRBL's First Alert Weather Radar app will keep you informed for any severe weather in the area and Georgia Power customers can visit this site to ensure their contact information is updated to receive Outage Alerts, report and check the status of outages, and access useful safety tips and information. Customers can also report and check the status of an outage 24 hours a day by contacting Georgia Power at 888-891-0938. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross discusses how AI will become critical forecasting tool this hurricane season
MIAMI – This year's hurricane season marks a significant turning point in weather forecasting with artificial intelligence models being integrated into the analytical toolkit of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. While not yet part of the official consensus models, AI is poised to dramatically enhance the accuracy and efficiency of hurricane predictions, ushering in a new era of meteorological technology. "This is going to be a year where we start to really take in and evaluate some of the AI model guidance from various producers, and we're going to pull that into our systems here and evaluate it," NHC Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather. Artificial Intelligence Among New Tech Shaping Forecasts During 2025 Hurricane Season The NHC will then compare AI model guidance to their traditional models to see how well it performs and how the agency can integrate it into its forecasting process. "They're not going be part of our official consensus or blended models this year, but we may make some additional ones on the side that we're going to test out and see how they do and perform," Brennan adds. "I think especially for track, there's a lot of promise on the AI side for some potential improvements in the near term." Brennan notes that intensity forecasting might take longer to fully mature with AI. "You have to think of them all as being in experimental mode, and I think it's important actually to distinguish between them," he said. Noaa's Goes-19 Weather Satellite Begins Operations In Orbit For years, meteorologists have relied on sophisticated forecast models that simulate atmospheric conditions through complex mathematical equations, according to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. These traditional models, like the American GFS and European ECMWF, require immense computational power, running for hours to produce a single forecast, Norcross said. However, a new breed of AI models, such as Google's Graphcast and the European Center's AIFS, are emerging as powerful complements. Unlike their traditional counterparts, AI models utilize pattern recognition, learning from vast datasets of past weather phenomena to predict future outcomes, according to Norcross. This approach allows them to operate with remarkable speed, generating forecasts in mere minutes. "This year is going to be the big year because now we have access and regular access, immediate access, to many different AI models," he explained. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook According to Norcross, the regular model tries to simulate the atmosphere. The AI models don't do that and are more pattern recognition oriented. However, the speed and efficiency of AI models allow for an unprecedented number of "runs" or simulations, providing forecasters with a much broader distribution of possible outcomes, Norcross adds. This increased variability insight is crucial for understanding the potential range of a hurricane's behavior. "Because the AI models are so efficient, what you can do is you can run the AI model with exactly the same information, and then you can modify it a little bit and run it again, and you can really get a good distribution of possibilities because you don't have to use all this computer power," Norcross said. How To Watch Fox Weather Currently, NHC forecasters rely on a consensus approach, averaging the outputs of multiple traditional models to produce the most reliable forecast, Norcross adds. This consensus has consistently proven to be more accurate than any single model. "This year, the AI models are not going to be added to the consensus, but they will in the future," Norcross said. "They'll do this in the background and just see if it helps the consensus or not."Original article source: Bryan Norcross discusses how AI will become critical forecasting tool this hurricane season
